Summary statistics for South East Wales region: 2020 20 May 2020 SFR 47/2020 These reports have been updated to support the continuing development of About this release the National Development Framework following consultation on the draft NDF This release is one of five in autumn 2019. The Mid and South West Wales region has been split into statistical outputs separate regions for Mid Wales and South West Wales to provide more summarising statistics on detailed analysis on the key issues and trends in these areas. The South East nine key topics for Wales Wales region comprises the local authorities of Bridgend, Blaenau Gwent, and four Welsh regions Caerphilly, Cardiff, Merthyr Tydfil Monmouthshire, Newport, Rhondda Cynon (North Wales, Mid Wales, Taf, Torfaen, and Vale of Glamorgan. The aim of this release is to give a South West Wales and statistical breakdown of the region and to highlight differences that may exist South East Wales). across the region for the nine topics in question. Together these releases have been prepared to inform regional planning, supporting the National Infrastructure Commission for Wales, the National Development Framework and the Economic Action Plan. In this release Key Points Population 2 South East Wales is the only Welsh region where population change Health 9 due to natural change (population attributable to the difference in Employment 11 births and deaths) has been strictly positive since the 1991-92 period, although the level of natural change has been decreasing in recent Transport 16 years. Environment 19 In 2018, 725,500 people worked in the region, representing half of all Prosperity 23 employment across Wales. Digital Infrastructure 26 Overall, nitrogen dioxide levels were higher in South East Wales local Housing 30 authorities than in local authorities across the other regions, but these levels have been decreasing over time. Culture & Heritage 32 Quality Information 33 Statistician: Geraint Turner ~ 0300 025 5050 ~ [email protected] This report is also available in Welsh Enquiries from the press: 0300 025 8099 Public enquiries : 0300 025 5050 Twitter: @statisticswales Population Figure 1: Population in South East Wales, by local authority, 2018 Source: Mid-year population estimates, Office for National Statistics In 2018, South East Wales was home to 1.53 million residents, of which around 24 per cent lived in Cardiff. This was, by some way, the largest local authority in the region and in Wales in terms of population, with an estimated 364,000 residents. The authority with the smallest population in this region was Merthyr Tydfil with a population of around 60,000. Note: These reports were produced ahead of the publication of provisional 2019 mid-year estimates on 6 May 2020. 2 Figure 2: Population density (persons per square kilometre) in South East Wales, by local authority, 2018 Source: Mid-year population estimates, Office for National Statistics; Standard area measurements, Office for National Statistics South East Wales had a population density of 546 persons per square kilometre in 2018, meaning it was the most densely populated of the Welsh regions. Within the region, the most densely populated authority was Cardiff, with 2,585 persons per square kilometre. The most sparsely populated local authority was Monmouthshire, with a population density of 111 persons per square kilometre. Between 2008 and 2018, population density grew by 5.1 per cent in South East Wales. This was the highest rate of the four regions. The authority with the greatest population density growth rate in the region and in Wales over this period was Cardiff, at 9.5 per cent. Blaenau Gwent saw the only fall, with population density decreasing by 0.2 per cent from 2008 to 2018. Welsh Government analysis of 2011 Census data (unpublished) shows that South East Wales' population was entirely concentrated in settlements classified “less sparse,” with 55 per cent of residents living in settlements with 25,000 or more residents. Note: These reports were produced ahead of the publication of provisional 2019 mid-year estimates on 6 May 2020. 3 Figure 3: Population distribution in South East Wales by age and gender, 2018 Aged 90 and over Aged 85 Aged 80 Aged 75 Aged 70 Aged 65 Aged 60 Aged 55 Aged 50 Aged 45 Aged 40 Male Aged 35 Female Aged 30 Aged 25 Aged 20 Aged 15 Aged 10 Aged 5 Aged 0 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 Population Source: Mid-year population estimates, Office for National Statistics The relatively uniform shape of the population pyramid for the South East Wales region shows that it has a fairly even distribution of ages, the most even distribution of ages among the four Welsh regions in 2018. This can be partly attributed to the relatively high number of university students living in the area, and especially in Cardiff. Between 1998 and 2018, the proportion of the population aged 65 and over has increased from 16.0 per cent to 18.5 per cent, while the proportion of the population aged 15 and under has fallen from 21.6 per cent to 18.6 per cent. South East Wales is the only Welsh region with a higher proportion of the population aged 15 and under than aged 65 and over. Note: These reports were produced ahead of the publication of provisional 2019 mid-year estimates on 6 May 2020. 4 Figure 4: Percentage population change in South East Wales, by local authority, 1998-2018 20 South East Wales 15 10 9.6 5 Percentage 0 -5 Source: Mid-year population estimates, Office for National Statistics The population of the region grew by 9.6 per cent between 1998 and 2018. However, population change has been variable across the region’s local authorities over this period. The population decreased in 2 of the 10 local authorities in the region over the first half of this period, but only Blaenau Gwent experienced negative population growth over the 2008-2018 period. Cardiff experienced the highest population growth rate between 1998 and 2018 (18.0 per cent). Newport has seen the greatest change in population growth between the 1998-2008 and 2008- 2018 periods, going from a growth rate of 3.9 per cent to 7.4 per cent. The mean population growth across South East Wales’ local authorities over the 2008-2018 period was 7,471 people. This was higher than the median (5,084 people) due to the high proportion of growth happening in Cardiff. Note: These reports were produced ahead of the publication of provisional 2019 mid-year estimates on 6 May 2020. 5 Figure 5: Components of population change in South East Wales over time 10,000 Natural change during period 8,000 Net migration and other changes during period 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Change (count) -2,000 -4,000 -6,000 1992to 1993 1993to 1994 1996to 1997 1997to 1998 1999to 2000 2000to 2001 2003to 2004 2004to 2005 2007to 2008 2008to 2009 2010to 2011 2011to 2012 2014to 2015 2015to 2016 1994to 1995 1995to 1996 1998to 1999 2001to 2002 2002to 2003 2005to 2006 2006to 2007 2009to 2010 2012to 2013 2013to 2014 2016to 2017 2017to 2018 1991to 1992 Source: Mid-year population estimates, Office for National Statistics Looking at data showing components of population change across South East Wales, we see a different picture to that seen across Wales as a whole, and across the other three regions. It is the only region in which natural change (population attributable to the difference in births and deaths) has been strictly positive since the 1991-92 period, although the level of natural change has been decreasing in recent years. The data also shows that inward migration has been greater than outward migration since the 2001-02 period. Breaking the data down to local authority level shows that Vale of Glamorgan had the largest net change in population due to migration and other changes during the 2017-18 period, while Newport had the largest overall population change. Population change due to net migration and other changes was positive in all authorities within the region, meaning that in all authorities, there are more people moving in than moving out. Cardiff was by far the local authority with the highest level of natural change in 2017-18, both in the region and in Wales, while 4 of the 10 authorities in the region experienced negative natural change, meaning deaths were higher than births. The highest level of negative natural change in the region was in Monmouthshire. Note: These reports were produced ahead of the publication of provisional 2019 mid-year estimates on 6 May 2020. 6 Figure 6: Stated Welsh-speaking ability of persons aged three and over in South East Wales, by local authority, 2011 350,000 Not able to speak Welsh 300,000 250,000 Able to speak Welsh 200,000 150,000 Number 100,000 50,000 0 Source: 2011 Census, Office for National Statistics According to census data, there were 150,792 Welsh-speakers aged three and over in the region in 2011. There were more Welsh-speakers in Cardiff than in any other local authority in the region, while Merthyr Tydfil had the lowest count of Welsh speakers. As a proportion of the persons aged three and over however, Rhondda Cynon Taf was the local authority with the highest rate of Welsh speakers (12.3 per cent), while Blaenau Gwent had the lowest (7.8 per cent). The census is the key source of information about the number of people who can speak Welsh. The National Survey for Wales (NSW) and the Annual Population Survey (APS) also collect information about respondents’ Welsh speaking ability and frequency of use (the NSW only collects information for those aged 16 or over while the APS collects information for those aged three and over like the census).