Transport and TWAO Document Ref. C-1 Works Act 1992 The Leeds Trolley Vehicle System Order Business Case Leeds NGT: Business Case Review January 2014 Leeds NGT – Business Case Review Executive Summary The Leeds New Generation Transport (NGT) project will be a 14.8km trolleybus network with lines to: I Holt Park (North Line) I Stourton (South Line) The scheme includes Park & Ride sites on the North Line at Bodington and at the South Line terminus at Stourton. NGT will provide a high quality, highly segregated, rapid transit service with high capacity, greater punctuality and faster journey times than bus services. It will significantly improve the quality of public transport in Leeds and provide an attractive alternative to private car travel. NGT is being jointly promoted by the West Yorkshire Passenger Transport Executive (Metro) and Leeds City Council (LCC). It will open to passengers in early 2020. On award of Programme Entry to the NGT Project, DfT committed capital funding of £173.5 million towards the investment cost of the trolleybus solution as specified in the funding approval. The Promoters will contribute further to this. This document fulfils DfT’s requirements for a Business Case submission. It sets out NGT’s: I Strategic Case I Economic Case I Financial Case I Commercial Case I Management Case The Strategic Case sets out the scheme context and includes a description of the problems and issues which NGT will help to resolve. It sets out the scheme objectives and describes how the Preferred Option was developed. The Strategic Case demonstrates that NGT will make a strong contribution to meeting national, regional and local policy objectives. Executive Summary Leeds NGT – Business Case Review The Economic Case demonstrates the economic worth of the project. This includes a Cost Benefit Analysis which shows that with a Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR) of 2.96:1 the scheme represents strong value for money and will deliver a high level of benefit against the investment made. The environmental impacts of NGT are also considered and it is shown that NGT has a neutral overall impact on almost all environmental sub-objectives with the exception of landscape/townscape, where a moderate adverse assessment has been recorded and noise, where NGT has a slight adverse impact. Funding details are provided in the Financial Case, which highlights that sufficient funding is available for the scheme. Procurement and contract details are included within the Commercial Case which explains how the Promoters envisage the scheme will operate and demonstrates why this will enable the optimal implementation of NGT. The Management Case sets out how the Promoters will deliver NGT and demonstrates that the project is deliverable and feasible. The Promoters are working towards NGT being fully operational in 2020. A description of how project risks are being managed is also provided in the Management Case, which shows that project risks are being effectively managed and that procedures are in line with DfT requirements. This section also highlights the strong support for the scheme and describes the Communication Management Strategy which is being implemented to ensure all stakeholders are informed of relevant project information. Finally, the document concludes with a Summary Case of the appraised NGT options outlining the many benefits of NGT and demonstrating the strong contribution that it will make to the future transport network in Leeds. It highlights the positive impact the scheme will have on encouraging modal shift and more sustainable travel, whilst helping to maximise the Leeds economy by enhancing its competitive position and facilitating future employment and population growth. Executive Summary New Generation Transport Business Case Review Table of Contents Glossary Scheme Description Strategic Case Economic Case Financial Case Commercial Case Management Case Summary Case Bibliography Leeds NGT – Business Case Review Contents GLOSSARY SCHEME DESCRIPTION 1. Introduction 2. Preferred Option Specification STRATEGIC CASE 3. Project Context 4. Stakeholders 5. Assessment of Alternatives 6. Assessment against National Policy, Strategy and Objectives 7. Assessment against Local and Regional Policy, Strategy and Objectives 8. Powers and Consents ECONOMIC CASE 9. Overview 10. Investment Costs 11. Operating Costs 12. Demand and Revenue Forecasting 13. Economic Impacts 14. Environmental Impacts 15. Social Impacts 16. Public Accounts Impacts 17. Value for Money Statement FINANCIAL CASE 18. Overview 19. Capital Funding 20. Sources of Funding 21. Operating Position COMMERCIAL CASE 22. Introduction 23. Procurement Strategy MANAGEMENT CASE 24. Project Planning 25. Project Governance 26. Risk Management 27. Communications and Stakeholder Management 28. Monitoring and Evaluation SUMMARY CASE BIBLIOGRAPHY Contents Leeds NGT – Business Case Review Figures Figure 2.1 Preferred Option 2-2 Figure 3.1 Location of Leeds & Adjacent Authorities in the City Region 3-1 Figure 3.2 Historic and Future Growth 3-8 Figure 3.3 Population Density 3-9 Figure 3.4 Locations of the Largest Employers in Leeds 3-11 Figure 3.5 Unemployment in Leeds 3-12 Figure 3.6 Deprivation Across Leeds 3-13 Figure 3.7 Leeds Transport Geography 3-15 Figure 3.8 Congested Routes in Leeds District 3-17 Figure 3.9 Conjested Junctions in Leeds 3-17 Figure 3.10 AM Peak Inbound Traffic Flows 3-19 Figure 3.11 Average Annual Daily Flow for All Roads in Great Britain 3-19 Figure 3.12 Punctuality Index for Buses on the Scheme Corridors 3-23 Figure 3.13 Leeds Rail Network 3-24 Figure 3.14 AM Peak (0730-0930) Passenger Arrivals for Leeds Station 3-25 Figure 3.15 Land Allocated for Development in Leeds 3-27 Figure 3.16 District-Wide Transport Developments 3-30 Figure 10.1 Infrastructure renewals costs – Preferred Option 10-5 Figure 10.2 Infrastructure renewals costs – Next Best Alternative 10-7 Figure 10.3 Infrastructure renewals costs – Low Cost alternative 10-8 Figure 11.1 Service Frequency Pattern 11-11 Figure 11.2 Peak Frequencies for Bus Services 1 and 6 11-12 Figure 12.1 Structure of the Leeds Transport Model (LTM) 12-22 Figure 12.2 Structure of Choice Model within LTM 12-23 Figure 24.1 NGT Level 1 Programme 24-7 Figure 25.1 Key Roles and Responsibilities 25-3 Figure 25.2 NGT Project Team (correct as of January 2014) 25-7 Figure 26.1 Risk Identification, Evaluation and Management 26-3 Figure 28.1 Logic Map 28-3 Contents Leeds NGT – Business Case Review Tables Table 2.1 Key Milestones* For the NGT Project 2-4 Table 3.1 Population Density 3-9 Table 3.2 Employment Growth 3-11 Table 3.3 Car Ownership 3-14 Table 3.4 Origin and Mode of Journeys in AM Period 3-16 Table 3.5 Routes where congestion adds 80%+ to Journey Times 3-18 Table 3.6 Leeds City Centre Core Area Car Parking Supply to 2011/12 3-21 Table 3.7 Summary of Problems and Opportunities 3-32 Table 3.8 Scheme Objectives 3-35 Table 5.1 Summary of Alternative Options 5-7 Table 6.1 Strategic Fit Against National Policy 6-3 Table 7.1 Strategic Fit Against Local Level Plans/Policies 7-3 Table 7.2 Assessment Against Scheme Objectives 7-6 Table 7.3 Contribution to WYLTP Targets 7-9 Table 10.1 Preferred Option Capital Cost Summary 10-4 Table 10.2 Next Best Alternative Capital Cost Summary 10-6 Table 10.3 Low Cost Alternative Capital Cost Summary 10-8 Table 11.1 Fares and Ticketing Strategy 11-13 Table 11.2 Preferred Option Annual Operating Costs & Savings (Phase 1) 11-15 Table 11.3 Preferred Option Annual Operating Costs & Savings (Phase 2) 11-16 Table 11.4 Next Best Alternative Annual Operating Costs & Savings 11-18 Table 11.5 Low Cost Alternative Annual Operating Costs & Savings 11-20 Table 12.1 Run time Assessment model results for Preferred Option 2016 am peak hour 12-26 Table 12.2 Run time Assessment model results for Preferred Option 2016 inter- peak hour 12-26 Table 12.3 Run time Assessment model results for Preferred Option 2016 pm peak hour 12-26 Table 12.4 NGT Preferred Option Demand Forecasts 2016 12-28 Table 12.5 NGT Preferred Option Revenue Forecasts 2016 12-28 Table 12.6 Next Best Alternative Demand Forecasts 2016 12-29 Table 12.7 Next Best Alternative Revenue Forecasts 2016 12-29 Table 12.8 Low Cost Alternative Demand Forecasts 2016 12-30 Table 12.9 Low Cost Alternative Revenue Forecasts 2016 12-30 Table 12.10 Annualisation Factors 12-31 Table 12.11 Annualisation Factors Adjustment – Freight 12-31 Contents Leeds NGT – Business Case Review Table 12.12 Annualisation Factors Adjustment – Highway (Car) 12-31 Table 12.13 Annualisation Factors Adjustment – Public Transport 12-32 Table 12.14 NGT Preferred Option Demand and Revenue Forecasts 2016 12-32 Table 12.15 Alternatives comparative Demand and Revenue forecasts 2016 12-33 Table 13.1 Business User Impact by mode – Preferred Option 13-4 Table 13.2 Impact on Transport Providers – Preferred Option 13-5 Table 13.3 Impact on Business Users – Next Best Alternative 13-6 Table 13.4 Impact on Transport Providers – Next Best Alternative 13-7 Table 13.5 Impact on Business Users – Low Cost Alternative 13-7 Table 13.6 Impact on Transport Providers – Low Cost Alternative 13-8 Table 14.1 Score Alignment between ES and WebTAG 14-3 Table 14.2 Summary Results of Environmental Impacts 14-43 Table 15.1 Travel time Impact by mode – Preferred Option 15-3 Table 15.2 Travel time impact by mode – Next Best Alternative 15-4 Table 15.3 Travel Time Impact by mode – Low Cost Alternative 15-5 Table 15.4 Affordability Impact by mode – Preferred Option 15-18 Table 15.5 Affordability Impact by mode – Next Best Alternative