Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.13, 2019 Demand Estimation of a New Light Rail Transit in a Tourist City Considering the Change in Population Distribution –A Case Study for Kanazawa City, Japan– Tetsuji SATO a*, Eiki TAKASUGI b, Atsuya HANDA c, Keisuke SUGITA d, Kana ISOGAI e a,b,c,d,e Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Chiba Institute of Technology, 2-17-1 Tsudanuma, Narashino-shi, Chiba, 275-0016, Japan a E-mail: [email protected] b E-mail: [email protected] c E-mail: [email protected] d E-mail: [email protected] e E-mail: [email protected] Abstract: Many tourist cities in Asian countries developed or have plans to introduce a new mass transit system such as subway and light rail transit recently to reduce traffic jam and improve convenience of tourists, etc. In tourist cities, the fare of new mass transit lines can be low because tourists increase the demand of the lines compared to other cities. In this paper, we propose an estimation method of the impact of a new mass transit system and its fare level on population distribution in a city and demand of new lines considering the change in population distribution. We also develop an empirical model for Kanazawa city which is one of the famous historical tourist cities in Japan, and estimate the impact of developing a new light rail transit line and the fare level on population distribution and demand of the line. Keywords: Light rail transit, Demand estimation, Population distribution 1. INTRODUCTION Several cities in Asia that handle a large number of tourists have recently introduced mass transit systems, such as subway systems, new transportation systems, and light rail transit (LRT), to alleviate traffic congestion, improve the environment, and provide tourists and citizens who commute back and forth to work with convenient forms of transportation. The Okinawa Urban Monorail began operation in Okinawa, Japan, in 2003. This monorail system runs for approximately 13 kilometers from Naha Airport to Shuri near the Shuri Castle, which has been named as a World Heritage Site. Several tourist cities in Japan, which have the streetcar system, have introduced low floor type streetcars (light rail vehicles) on the existing streetcar tracks. For example, these were introduced in Kumamoto in 1997, Hiroshima in 1999, Nagasaki in 2011, and Matsuyama in 2017. Each transportation mode has its own capacity. In a width of 3 meters and on an hourly basis, buses can carry 3,000–6,000 people, LRT can carry 3,000–11,000 people, new transportation systems can carry 10,000–20,000 people, and subways can carry 30,000–60,000 people. Generally, the construction and maintenance costs are the highest for subway systems, which is followed by those of new transportation systems, LRT, and buses. * Corresponding author. 626 Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.13, 2019 Therefore, estimating the demand (number of users) is essential for determining whether new LRTs, new transportation systems, or subway infrastructures are required and also for determining the most appropriate mode among these. In general, the demand for new transportation lines can be estimated using the four step estimation method. Firstly, the trip generation volume and attracted trip volume is estimated. Subsequently, the trip volume distribution of all transportation modes is determined, which is followed by the trip volume distribution of each mode. Finally, the assigned trip volume (based on the line) can be obtained. The trip generation volume can be estimated in the first step by multiplying the trip generation volume per person (primary unit) with the population that can be expected in the future in each zone. Here, the future population of each zone is estimated using the primary factors cohort. It is important to note that the change in population distribution within a city which is caused by the residential development along the lines and the enhanced convenience achieved using the new lines is not taken into consideration in the ordinary method. Mass transit systems, such as LRT, new transportation systems, and subway systems, significantly impact the population distribution and should, therefore, significantly impact the transportation demand as well. Because of the usage of the newly constructed mass transit systems by tourists, a considerably large demand should be expected in tourist cities when compared with the demand in cities that attract less number of tourists. A high demand generally results in low fares. This may encourage people to relocate to new residential areas along the lines, thereby increasing the usage of those lines and further increasing the demand. There are a lot of previous studies which focus on the modelling of transportation and land use considering the interaction among transport capacity, demand and congestion, location choice of household and population distribution. Recent studies in this field contain Li et al. (2016) and Li et al. (2017). They constructed the integrated co-evolution model of land use and traffic network design based on the reference-dependent theory as for household’s location choice behavior, the multi-criteria stochastic user equilibrium model as for household’s route choice behavior, etc. They also proposed a solution algorithm of the model using the genetic algorithm and conducted numerical experiments. These studies, however, did not consider public transportation system and did not conduct empirical analyses for real cities. Studies analyzing the relationship of newly constructed public transportation system and changes in population distribution within real cities have been recently conducted by Muto et al. (2000), Sato et al. (2017), Takasugi et al. (2018), and Tomioka et al. (2018). Muto et al. constructed a computable urban economic model which assumes an equilibrium in the urban land market and an interaction between household distribution and the trip cost, and evaluated construction of a new transportation system in Gifu city, Japan. Sato et al. and Tomioka et al. have constructed locational equilibrium models of the residential land market for the city of Utsunomiya, Japan; further, they have been used to analyze the long-term impact of the new LRT, which is scheduled for inauguration on March 2022, on the population distribution within the city. Takasugi et al. developed a quasi-dynamic location equilibrium model considering the difference of influences on utility level of households between LRT and BRT, and conducted a case study analysis assuming new construction of LRT or BRT in Maebashi city, Japan. However, these previously conducted researches did not forecast the demand of new public transportation systems based on the population distribution changes; further, new public transportation systems in tourist cities were also not included in these studies. Also, these studies did not consider the impact of the fare of new lines which is likely to be low in tourist cities. Based on the content and focus of the previous studies mentioned above, this paper proposes the estimation method of the impact of a new public transportation development and 627 Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.13, 2019 its fare on the population distribution within a particular city over the long-term. And we also propose the estimation method of the demand of new lines based on the change of population distribution. Further, an empirical model for Kanazawa, which is one of Japan’s leading tourist cities, is developed and is used to analyze the impact of developing a new LRT line on population distribution within the city and the demand of the line is estimated. 2. DEVELOPMENT OF POPULATION DISTRIBUTION ESTIMATION MODEL 2.1 Outline of the Model The model in this paper is designed for estimating future population by zone in the long run by assuming the supply and demand of land (or floor) based on the type of residence (including single-family homes and rental apartments) and market equilibrium in each term. While setting the value of the relocation ratio by the current residence type and residence-type ratio after relocation, the model calculates the location volume (the urban social movements) from the supply of land (floor for apartment) by landlord, the land (floor) demand by household based on the relocation destination zone choice probability and market equilibrium through rent adjustment for each residence type in each zone. The model also considers the natural increase (decrease) as well as the moving out of the city and the moving into the city based on the cohort of primary factors in each term. When the population distribution for term t is obtained, the household distribution for each residence type for term t can be determined by converting the population to the number of households in each zone with the average number of household members and multiplying it with the ratio of each residence type. Subsequently, the number of social movements within the city (total number of households intending to move within the city) during terms t to t+1 is determined based on the number of household and relocation ratio for each residence type before relocation. This is followed by the calculation of the total number of households intending to move within the city for each residence type after relocation during terms t to t+1 based on the number of social movements within the city and the ratio of each residence type after relocation. Further, the household distribution after social movement is determined by calculating the location volume in each zone based on the location equilibrium for each residence type. It is further converted to the population distribution that considers only the social movement within the city using the average number of household members for each residence type.