Socio-Economic Assessment for the Coronado National Forest Prepared for the Southwest Region USDA Forest Service The University of Arizona School of Natural Resources 2005 Socioeconomic Assessment of the Coronado National Forest Prepared for: The Coronado National Forest 300 W. Congress St. Tucson, AZ 85701 and USDA Forest Service Region 3 (Southwestern Region) 333 Broadway SE Albuquerque, NM 87102 Submitted by: Arizona National Forests Socioeconomic Assessment Team The University of Arizona School of Natural Resources 312 BioSciences East P.O. Box 210043 Tucson, AZ 85721-0043 ii Coronado National Forest Socioeconomic Assessment Acknowledgements The completion of this socioeconomic assessment would not have been possible without consistent cooperation between the University of Arizona and the Southwestern Region of the United States Forest Service. We would like to thank the following individuals for the time and effort they contributed to the development of this study. Reuben Weisz was an important resource in the Regional Office, offering critical guidance during the formative stages of the assessment. Jennifer Ruyle, Terry Austin, William Gillespie, Tami Emmett, and Sue Kozacek were each valuable sources of information on the Coronado National Forest. Craig Wissler, Mickey Reed, and Alona Bachi of the Advanced Resource Technology Group in the College of Agriculture at the University of Arizona provided land ownership and land use data as well as each of the GIS components of this assessment. Susan Winter of the Planning Analysis Group in the Rocky Mountain Research Station provided the IMPLAN data for assessment of natural resource dependent economic activities. The cover photo, also featured in Tapamveni: The Rock Galleries of Petrified Forest and Beyond, by Pat McCreery and Ekkehart Malotki, represents prehistoric Native American rock art from an area north of Sitgreaves N.F. The exact location is not specified in order to protect the art. The photograph is courtesy of Professor Ekkehart Malotki of Flagstaff, AZ. This report was developed through the combined efforts of the Socioeconomic Team. Members include the following individuals: J.E. “Ed” de Steiguer, Ph.D. Principal Investigator Tom Spangler Project Manager Sara Jensen Research Specialist/Writer Ian MacDonald Writer / Editor J.R. Owens Data Analyst Denise Fisher Research Specialist Cori Carveth Research Specialist Julie Michael Research Specialist Coronado National Forest Socioeconomic Assessment i Abstract This report presents a socioeconomic assessment of the six-county area surrounding the Coronado National Forest. The assessment is based on analysis of secondary data to inform forest staff, stakeholders, and communities of trends in seven topics: 1) demographic patterns and trends; 2) economic characteristics and vitality; 3) access and travel patterns; 4) land use; 5) forest users and uses; 6) designated areas and special places; and 7) community relationships. Findings from the analysis of socioeconomic data are consistent with those from similar studies throughout the region showing significant increases in population and housing, substantial economic shifts from extractive industries toward the service and professional sectors, and a land use policy environment largely affected by an abundance of public land and increasing urbanization. In addition to revealing differences in the demographic, economic, and land use patterns of each county, it also discusses issues of natural and cultural resource protection common to the entire region. ii Coronado National Forest Socioeconomic Assessment TABLE OF CONTENTS Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................................................................i Abstract ........................................................................................................................................................................ ii List of Tables.................................................................................................................................................................v List of Figures...............................................................................................................................................................vi Acronyms ................................................................................................................................................................... vii Executive Summary......................................................................................................................................................ix 1. Introduction ...............................................................................................................................................................1 1.1 Statement of purpose ..........................................................................................................................................1 1.2 Assessment methodology and topics ..................................................................................................................1 1.3 Report organization.............................................................................................................................................2 2. Demographic Patterns and Trends.............................................................................................................................3 2.1. Historical context and social characteristics ......................................................................................................3 2.2 Population, age structure, net migration, and tourism.........................................................................................8 2.3 Racial/ethnic composition and educational attainment.....................................................................................16 2.4 Housing characteristics and population projections..........................................................................................19 2.5 Key issues for forest planning and management...............................................................................................22 3. Economic Characteristics and Vitality ....................................................................................................................24 3.1 Historical context and regional economic conditions .......................................................................................24 3.2 Income and employment within key industries ................................................................................................25 3.3 Forest and natural-resource dependent economic activities..............................................................................39 3.4 Government earnings from federal-lands related payments..............................................................................41 3.5 Key issues for forest planning and management...............................................................................................44 4. Access and Travel Patterns......................................................................................................................................45 4.1 Historical context and current access issues .....................................................................................................45 4.2 Predominant transportation modes and seasonal flow patterns.........................................................................46 4.3 Regional transportation plans and roadway improvements ..............................................................................52 4.4 Internal modes, barriers, and access issues .......................................................................................................55 4.5 Key issues for forest planning and management...............................................................................................56 5. Land use...................................................................................................................................................................58 5.1 Historical context and land use patterns ...........................................................................................................58 5.2 Land ownership and land use............................................................................................................................59 5.3 County land use plans and local policy environment........................................................................................65 5.4 Changes in land ownership affecting Coronado National Forest......................................................................75 5.5 Key issues for forest planning and management...............................................................................................77 6. Forest Users and Uses..............................................................................................................................................79 6.1 Historical context and user groups....................................................................................................................79 6.2 Extractive users and uses ..................................................................................................................................80 6.3 Non-extractive uses and users...........................................................................................................................81