Old Dominion University ODU Digital Commons Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Graduate Program in International Studies Dissertations Winter 2005 The Application of a System of Systems Analysis to Assessments of National Power George T. Hodermarsky Old Dominion University Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.odu.edu/gpis_etds Part of the International Law Commons, and the International Relations Commons Recommended Citation Hodermarsky, George T.. "The Application of a System of Systems Analysis to Assessments of National Power" (2005). Doctor of Philosophy (PhD), dissertation, International Studies, Old Dominion University, DOI: 10.25777/320q-3916 https://digitalcommons.odu.edu/gpis_etds/56 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate Program in International Studies at ODU Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations by an authorized administrator of ODU Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. THE APPLICATION OF A SYSTEM OF SYSTEMS ANALYSIS TO ASSESSMENTS OF NATIONAL POWER by George T. Hodermarsky A.B. June 1970, Ohio University M.S. May 1976, The George Washington University M.S. July 1990, The U.S. Naval War College M.S. August 1992, Old Dominion University A Dissertation Submitted to the Faculty of Old Dominion University in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirement for the Degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY INTERNATIONAL STUDIES OLD DOMINION UNIVERSITY December 2005 Approved by: Kurt Baylor Ga(ubatz (director) Steven A. Yetiv (Member) David Dryer (Member) Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. ABSTRACT THE APPLICATION OF A SYSTEM OF SYSTEMS ANALYSIS TO ASSESSMENTS OF NATIONAL POWER George T. Hodermarsky Old Dominion University, 2005 Director: Dr. Kurt Taylor Gaubatz This dissertation proposes an approach and methodology for the utilization of the fundamentals of systems theory as an aid to national security decision-making. At its core is an examination of the elements of nations’ or non-state actor’s power resources. The product of the analysis is the compilation of a set of nodes, and the relationships between these, upon which actions may be taken to achieve desired effects. Since the boundaries between the subsystems of power resources are flexible and permeable, and there will be interactions between elements in different subsystems,system a o f systems approach is essential so that the functioning of the system may be better understood and the secondary consequences of actions considered. The premise is that changes cannot occur in isolation, and that alterations in one component will result in modifications (intended or unintended) to related elements. The goal of the approach is not precise prediction of the effects of actions, but rather to provide for understanding of the relationships between elements of national power that will lead to expectations of the consequences of those actions. The hypothesis is: If national power is characterized as nonlinear and complex; and, if approaches recently developed in mathematics and the physical sciences provide a means of enhanced understanding of nonlinear systems;then, utilization of such an approach may provide a metaphor or model for increased understanding of the system and the secondary effects of coercive actions taken to achieve objectives. This Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. dissertation will attempt to confirm the existence of the first two conditions, and will provide arguments and a design for accomplishment of the third. An ex post analysis of three conflicts where coercion by military means was the primary strategy—Somalia, 1992-1995; Kosovo, 1999; and, Afghanistan, 2001—will be used as case studies. These examples will provide illustration of the utilization of the principles of the system of systems construct and exposition of the potential of this methodology to enhance the understanding of the effects of coercive actions. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. IV ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Coincident with my formal coursework in the Graduate Program in International Studies at Old Dominion University, I served as a senior analyst supporting the transformational activities of the U.S. Joint Forces Command (USJFCOM). In August 2001,1 led a small team that evolved into the System of Systems Analysis (SoSA) Cell, building the knowledge base for the embryonic Operational Net Assessment. This dissertation is the result of nearly three years of my own academic research and writing, but much of the sources of the methodology emerged from our work for USJFCOM. It is impossible to determine the original individual sources of all the ideas that combined to form the basis of the process; consequently, I must recognize the team as a whole. Therefore, I thank and acknowledge the contributions of the members of the USJFCOM and international SoSA teams during the period August 2001 to February 2004, all who played a role in the experimentation and the subsequent evolution and maturation of the SoSA concept. A special thank you goes to my classmate and colleague, Eva Sigmon, who painstakingly reviewed the draft and provided valuable comments and recommendations. I am indebted to the members of my committee, Kurt Gaubatz, Steve Yetiv and David Dryer for their insights and valuable inputs. I am especially grateful to Dr. Gaubatz for his time, patience, and consistently valuable feedback on the drafts. Finally, and most importantly, I am indebted to my wife and favorite librarian, Eileen, who accepted the mind-numbing task of reading every draft line-by-line and (diplomatically) pointing out areas where the text did not make sense and needed Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. V clarification and improvement. However, her most important contribution to this effort was her continuous and unrelenting encouragement that kept me from abandoning the project on the numerous occasions when completion appeared to be beyond reach. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter Page I. INTRODUCTION..................................................................................................1 Rationale for the Study......................................................................... 2 The Hypothesis and Proposition....................................................... 12 Organization of the Dissertation....................................................... 18 II. THE EFFECTS OF THE APPLICATION OF COERCIVE POWER 20 Concepts of Power............................................................................. 22 The Application of Power..................................................................31 The Impact of Linkages.....................................................................41 Complexity and Linear Analysis.......................................................45 Summation.......................................................................................... 59 III. THE ANALYSIS OF NONLINEAR SYSTEMS.............................................62 Chaos.................................................................................................... 66 Complexity ...........................................................................................80 Summation.......................................................................................... 91 IV. THE SYSTEMS APPROACH.......................................................................... 96 Elements of a Systems Approach......................................................98 Sources of National Power as Systems...........................................115 Assessment through a System of Systems..................................... 124 Summation.........................................................................................131 V. A METHODOLOGY FOR ANTICIPATION OF SECONDARY EFFECTS...........................................................................................................135 Rationale and Objectives.................................................................. 137 Capability Needs...............................................................................144 A Proposed Process...........................................................................152 Summation.........................................................................................166 VI. SOMALIA 1992-1995 ..................................................................................... 170 A Representational System of Systems Analysis.......................... 174 The Impetus for Intervention...........................................................185 Effects of the Coercive Actions...................................................... 191 Summation........................................................................................ 200 VII. KOSOVO 1999 ...................................................................................................205 The Impetus for Intervention.......................................................... 208 A Representational System of Systems Analysis..........................216 Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner.