Assessment of the Proposed Force Reduction of the 4-25th Airborne Brigade Combat Team Prepared for The Municipality of Anchorage November 2016 in association with AECOM Alaska Map Company Wisdom • Trust • Relevance • Innovation Preparers Team Member Firm Project Role Marcus Hartley Northern Economics Project Manager and Principal Economist Logan Blair Northern Economics Economics and GIS Analysis Cal Kerr Northern Economics Economic Analysis Terri McCoy Northern Economics Editor Jon Isaacs AECOM Stakeholder Engagement Taylor Brelsford AECOM Stakeholder Engagement Elizabeth Appleby AECOM Stakeholder Engagement Evan Wasserman AECOM Stakeholder Engagement Jessica Evans AECOM Stakeholder Engagement Gary Greenberg Alaska Map Company GIS Analysis Please cite as: Northern Economics, Inc. Assessment of the Proposed Force Reduction of the 4-25th Airborne Brigade Combat Team. Prepared for the Municipality of Anchorage. November 2016. Contents Section Page Abbreviations ..........................................................................................................................................vii Executive Summary .................................................................................................................................. 1 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 Organization of this Report ................................................................................................. 3 1.2 Methodology ...................................................................................................................... 3 1.2.1 Stakeholder Input and Public Process.................................................................................. 3 1.2.2 Quantitative Approach ....................................................................................................... 7 1.2.3 Details on the Alaska REMI Model ...................................................................................... 8 1.2.4 Geographic Based Approach ............................................................................................ 10 2 Affected Environment ............................................................................................................. 12 2.1 JBER and the 4-25th .......................................................................................................... 12 2.1.1 The U.S. Army Alaska ....................................................................................................... 14 2.1.2 The 4th Infantry Airborne Brigade Combat Team, of the 25th Infantry Division ................... 17 2.2 Existing Conditions ........................................................................................................... 25 2.2.1 Municipality of Anchorage ................................................................................................ 25 2.2.2 Matanuska Susitna Borough .............................................................................................. 40 3 Qualitative Impacts ................................................................................................................. 54 3.1 Economic and Community Role of JBER Military Members and Families ........................... 54 3.2 Economic Impacts of the Proposed Force Reduction ......................................................... 55 4 Regional Level Quantitative Impacts ....................................................................................... 58 4.1 Demographic Impacts of the Proposed Force Reduction ................................................... 59 4.1.1 Impacts on Population in the MOA and MSB .................................................................... 59 4.1.2 Impact on Age Groups within the Population .................................................................... 63 4.1.3 Impacts on Racial and Ethnic Diversity .............................................................................. 66 4.2 Employment Impacts of the Proposed Force Reduction ..................................................... 69 4.2.1 Impacts on Government and Private Sector Wages and Salaries ........................................ 76 4.3 Consumption Impacts of the Proposed Force Reduction ................................................... 81 4.4 Housing Market Impacts of the Proposed Force Reduction ............................................... 84 5 Quantitative Impacts to Individual Components of the Affected Region .................................... 87 5.1 Community and Community Council Population Impacts ................................................. 87 5.1.1 Community Population Impacts ........................................................................................ 90 5.2 Housing ............................................................................................................................ 91 5.3 Personal Consumption and Retail Sales Impacts .............................................................. 100 5.3.1 Retail Sensitivity to JBER Populations............................................................................... 102 5.4 School Impacts ............................................................................................................... 110 5.4.1 Anchorage and Matanuska-Susitna Borough Public Schools ............................................ 111 i Assessment of the Proposed Force Reduction of the 4-25th Airborne Brigade Combat Team 5.5 Utilities ........................................................................................................................... 117 5.6 Transportation and Storage ............................................................................................. 119 5.7 Contractors, Native Corporations, and Other Major Sectors ............................................ 121 6 Recommendations for Mitigating Impacts of the Proposed Force Reduction. ............................ 126 6.1 Recommendation from Public Process ............................................................................ 126 6.2 Recommendations from the Project Team ....................................................................... 127 6.2.1 Recommendations for the Municipality with Potential Future Feasibility: ......................... 131 7 References ............................................................................................................................ 132 Appendix A. Unit Level Details of the 4-25th under Alternative Configurations .......................................... 135 Appendix B: Major Indicators Forecasted using Validated ATF ................................................................. 138 Appendix C: Calculation of School Attendance and Impact Aid Calculations .............................................. 142 Appendix D: Utility Impact Calculations .................................................................................................. 149 Table Page Table 1. Public Meetings .................................................................................................................... 5 Table 2. Focus Groups ....................................................................................................................... 5 Table 3. Key informant Interviews ...................................................................................................... 7 Table 4. Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson Installation Fact Sheet (27 Jan 2016) ................................ 13 Table 5. TOEs and ASLs (May 2016) of Specific Units within the 4-25th ............................................ 17 Table 6. Assumed TOEs under Alternative Scenarios for the Force Reductions .................................. 19 Table 7. Assumed Transition from a TOE of 3,590 to a Reduced TOE of 960 ................................... 20 Table 8. Assumed Transition from a TOE of 3,590 to a Reduced TOE of 1,597 ................................ 20 Table 9. Residential Arrangements of Soldiers in the 4-25th............................................................... 21 Table 10. Soldiers in the 4-25th and Dependents under the Current TOE and ASL, and under Reduction Options .................................................................................................................... 21 Table 11. ASD and MSBSD Students Associated with the 4-25th ....................................................... 23 Table 12. Residential Arrangements of Soldiers and Dependents of the 4-25th .................................. 24 Table 13. Anchorage Community Level Military Demographics ........................................................ 89 Table 14. MSB Community Level Military Demographics ................................................................. 91 Table 15. Anchorage Community Level Active Duty Housing Characteristics .................................... 98 Table 16. MSB Community Level Active Duty Housing Characteristics ............................................. 99 Table 17. Retail Sensitivity Weights ................................................................................................ 103 Table 18. Percentage of USARK and Total Military Enrollment in ASD Schools ............................... 111 Table 19. Impacts to State and Local Aid ........................................................................................ 114 Table 20. Federal Impact Aid and State Withholdings, 2014 .........................................................