i What is Canada’s “Fair Share” of the Global Emissions Burden? An Examination of Fair and Proportional Emissions Reduction Targets By: Christie McLeod Supervised by: David Estrin A Major Paper submitted to the Faculty of Environmental Studies in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master in Environmental Studies York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada March 25, 2020 ii Table of Contents I. Introduction .................................................................................................................. 1 II. Climate Justice: Why Fairness Matters ..................................................................... 5 A. The Nature of the Problem .....................................................................................................6 1. The externality of GHG emissions ............................................................................................... 6 2. The distribution of climate impacts .............................................................................................. 7 3. The need for common but differentiated responsibilities ........................................................... 10 4. The multi-generational dilemma ................................................................................................ 11 B. Climate Justice, Equity & a Fair Share Approach................................................................. 13 1. Equity & Fair Shares .................................................................................................................. 13 2. Climate justice, Equity & Fair Shares in the International Climate Change Regime ................ 14 3. The Inadequacy of Nationally Determined Contributions ......................................................... 18 III. Approach & Scope .................................................................................................. 23 IV. Business-as Usual: Canada’s Present & Projected Emissions.................................. 26 A. Where We’re At: Canada’s Present-Day Emissions .............................................................. 26 B. Where We Want to Go: Canada’s Emissions Reduction Target ............................................. 26 C. Where We’re Going: Canada’s Projected Emissions ............................................................. 29 D. What’s Holding Us Back: The Oil & Gas Sector ................................................................... 31 V. Equity Approaches to Derive a “Fair Share” .............................................................. 33 A. Responsibility ...................................................................................................................... 36 1. Historical Responsibility Approach ........................................................................................... 36 B. Capability ............................................................................................................................ 39 1. Ability to Pay Approach ............................................................................................................. 39 C. Equality ............................................................................................................................... 40 1. Equal Annual Emission Per Capita Approach ........................................................................... 40 2. Contraction and Convergence Approach ................................................................................... 42 D. Responsibility-Capability-Need ............................................................................................. 42 1. Greenhouse Development Rights Framework ........................................................................... 42 E. Equal Cumulative Emissions per Capita ............................................................................... 44 F. Staged Approaches............................................................................................................... 45 1. Multi-Stage Approach ................................................................................................................ 45 2. Triptych Approach ..................................................................................................................... 45 G. Fair Share Range ................................................................................................................ 46 H. Conclusion .......................................................................................................................... 47 VI. Where We Need to Go: Canada’s Fair Share Emissions Target.............................. 48 A. Outdated Studies & Findings ............................................................................................... 50 1. Can multi-criteria rules fairly distribute climate burdens? OECD results from three burden sharing rules ........................................................................................................................................ 50 2. Effort sharing in ambitious, global climate change mitigation scenarios .................................. 52 3. Summary/Conclusion ................................................................................................................. 54 B. Studies and Findings for Analysis ........................................................................................ 55 1. Climate Equity Reference Project .............................................................................................. 56 2. Equitable mitigation to achieve the Paris Agreement goals ....................................................... 62 3. Climate Action Tracker .............................................................................................................. 69 iii C. Summary & Conclusion ....................................................................................................... 78 VII. How Do We Get There: Meeting our Fair Share ..................................................... 80 A. Set Stronger Targets ............................................................................................................ 80 1. Revise Canada’s 2030 target to align with a fair share target .................................................... 80 2. Carbon neutrality targets ............................................................................................................ 81 3. Legislated carbon budgets .......................................................................................................... 82 4. Compel more stringent targets through climate litigation .......................................................... 84 B. Corporations’ role in national emissions reduction targets .................................................... 90 1. Corporations’ emissions reduction efforts ................................................................................. 91 2. Sectoral targets ........................................................................................................................... 94 3. Cap and trade systems ................................................................................................................ 95 4. Sectoral Approach in Canada ..................................................................................................... 96 C. Subnational allocation ......................................................................................................... 97 VIII. Conclusion ......................................................................................................... 101 IX. Appendix ............................................................................................................... 108 A. Outdated Studies & Findings ............................................................................................. 108 1. Can multi-criteria rules fairly distribute climate burdens? OECD results from three burden sharing rules ...................................................................................................................................... 108 2. Effort sharing in ambitious, global climate change mitigation scenarios ................................ 110 B. Studies and Findings for Analysis ...................................................................................... 111 1. Climate Equity Reference Project ............................................................................................ 111 2. Equitable Mitigation to achieve the Paris Agreement goals .................................................... 113 3. Climate Action Tracker ............................................................................................................ 117 Glossary of Acronyms • C Celsius • CAT Climate Action Tracker • CBDR Common but differentiated responsibilities • CERP Climate Equity Reference Project • Co2 Carbon dioxide • Co2eq Carbon dioxide equivalent • COP Conference of the Parties • EABSWG Emissions Allocation Burden Sharing Working Group • ECEPC Equal Cumulative Emissions per Capita • ENGOs Environmental Non-Governmental Organizations • ENJEU ENvironnement JEUnesse • ETS Emissions Trading System • EU European Union • GDP Gross domestic product • GDR Greenhouse Development Rights • GHG Greenhouse Gases • GSES Global sector emissions standard iv • HDI Human Development Index • IBA International Bar Association • INDC Intended Nationally Determined Contribution • IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate