/?2S THE EUPHRATES RIVER: AN ANALYSIS OF A SHARED RIVER SYSTEM IN THE MIDDLE EAST by ARNON MEDZINI THESIS SUBMITTED FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY SCHOOL OF ORIENTAL AND AFRICAN STUDIES UNIVERSITY OF LONDON September 1994 ProQuest Number: 11010336 All rights reserved INFORMATION TO ALL USERS The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. In the unlikely event that the author did not send a com plete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. uest ProQuest 11010336 Published by ProQuest LLC(2018). Copyright of the Dissertation is held by the Author. All rights reserved. This work is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States C ode Microform Edition © ProQuest LLC. ProQuest LLC. 789 East Eisenhower Parkway P.O. Box 1346 Ann Arbor, Ml 48106- 1346 Abstract In a world where the amount of resources is constant and unchanging but where their use and exploitation is growing because of the rapid population growth, a rise in standards of living and the development of industrialization, the resource of water has become a critical issue in the foreign relations between different states. As a result of this many research scholars claim that, today, we are facing the beginning of the "Geopolitical era of water". The danger of conflict of water is especially severe in the Middle East which is characterized by the low level of precipitation and high temperatures. The Middle Eastern countries have been involved in a constant state of political tension and the gap between the growing number of inhabitants and the fixed supply of water and land has been a factor in contributing to this tension. These circumstances have led some researchers to predict that the next war in the region will break out because of a conflict over the allocation of water resources in the region. The Euphrates is the third biggest river in the Middle East. It rises in East Turkey, and crosses 2,330 km of territory through Syria and Iraq until it links up with the Shatt- Al-Arab river. The amount of average annual water flow over many years is about 32 billion m^ but the seasonal and annual variations are very great because of the regions climate. From the nineteen-sixties onward the three riparians began to plan and carry out extensive development programmes for the Euphrates river water by constructing dams whose main purpose was to control the flow of its water, for the production of hydro­ electric power and for agricultural purposes. These programmes caused tension in the foreign relations between the countries. The study provides a review of the hydrology of the river and of the river's relevance to the economies of its three riparians. This resource profile is the basis of the analysis of the strategic role of the river in the relations between Turkey, Syria and Iraq. This study also examines the influence of the Euphrates water allocation on the network of relations between the riparians countries. An examination of the different variables involved in this subject has been carried out with the help of three models: 1. Cognitive mapping - which allows all the states along the river basin to evaluate the interests of a particular country over three periods of time (past, present, future). 2. Quantitative indicators of vulnerability due to water shortages - which measure the level of vulnerability of states to a possible shortage of water. 3. Matrix model - which examines the possibility of military conflict between the states on the basis of five factors - also over three periods. Analyses based on these models together with the data on the river and on the economies of the riparians show that there will not be a future shortage of Euphrates water, military conflicts between the countries along the river are unlikely to develop. It appears that social, economic and political factors are the central issues in the tense relations between the riparians and not necessarily, as many research scholars claim, issues of water allocation. 2 Acknowledgements It is a pleasant duty to thank many friends colleagues and organizations who have both accompanied and assisted me in bringing this research thesis to fruition. I would, first and foremost like to express my deep gratitude to my thesis director, Professor Tony Allan, whose advice, contribution and never-ending encouragement made it possible to transform a collection of potential ideas into a piece of significant research. The relationship which developed between us during the period we worked together was one which not only made us both colleagues and friends but one which I hope will continue for many years to come. I would like to thank the British Council and the Advanced Studies Authority of the University of Haifa who financed my first year of studies at SOAS. Deep thanks to the Geography Department at SOAS who always related to me as a student with fairness and warmth. Special thanks go to Shoshi Mansfeld for her help in preparing the maps and graphs needed for the thesis. I would like to express my heartfelt thanks to Professor Nurit Kliot and Professor Amon Sofer for their help in crystallizing my ideas and for the moral support they gave when it was needed. And finally a separate, but special and deeply personal thanks to my family - my parents, my children and my wife - who stood by me during the difficult days when the burdens overcame motivation and without whose emotional support and presence along the way this long dreamt hope would never have been realized. Amon Medzini. 3 Contents Abstract 2 Acknowledgements 3 Contents 4 List of tables 6 List of figures 7 List of maps 8 List of photos 8 A. Introduction 9 A1. The basic importance of water 9 A2. Irrigation water use 11 A3. Domestic water use 15 A4. The role of water in the Middle East 16 A4.1 Domestic water use 17 A4.1.1 Urbanization 17 A4.1.2 Food deficit 18 A4.2 Industrialization and industrial water use 22 A5. Research topic: water in the region - supply and demand 24 A6. Competing demands 27 A7. The role of water in regional international relations 29 A7.1 The Euphrates catchment 30 A8. The purpose of the study 31 B . The Euphrates River - A General Description 33 B1. The climate of the basin 36 B2. The river hydrology 38 B3. The correlation between annual rainfall and annual discharge of the Euphrates 44 C . Irrigation Development Projects 50 C 1. Irrigation in early history 50 C2. The transitional period 52 C3. Modem development projects in Turkey 55 C3.1 The GAP project 63 C3.2 Basic characteristics of the GAP region 65 C3.3 Current use of land 67 C3.4 The economic structure of the region 68 C3.5 Development objectives and strategy 69 C3.6 Projects for developing water resources in the GAP region 70 C4. Modem irrigation development projects in Syria 81 C4.1 Surface water flows in Syria 86 C4.2 The Euphrates project 89 C4.3 Physical background 90 C4.4 Revision of proposed irrigation goals 94 C4.5 Electric power 95 C5. Modem irrigation development projects in Iraq 97 C5.1 Physical features 97 C5.2 The Population 98 C5.3 The economy 99 C5.4 Natural resources 100 C5.5 Water resources 102 C5.6 Hydroelectric power 103 C5.7 Agricultural potential 105 4 C5.8 River control and irrigation 108 C5.9 The effect of wars on the Iraqi economy 113 D. The Influence of Development Projects on the River Water 120 D1. The quantity of water 120 D l.l The utilization of the Euphrates river by Turkey 130 D1.2 The utilization of the Euphrates river by Syria 136 D1.3 The utilization of the Euphrates river by Iraq 142 D1.4 Analysis of the current and future overall supplies and demands of water - the Euphrates system 154 D2. The quality of water 161 D2.1 Future pollution scenarios 164 E. Disputes and Agreements Over the Euphrates Water 166 El. Geopolitical History 166 E1.1 The "division" of the Ottoman Empire 166 E2. Relations among the riparians concerning Euphrates water use (until 1974) 168 E3. The Syrian - Iraqi "water crises" of 1974-1975 172 E4. The water crisis of 1989-1990 178 E5. Relations between Turkey, Syria and Iraq 184 E5.1 Relations between Turkey and Syria 184 E5.2 Relations between Turkey and Iraq 187 E5.3 Relations between Syria and Iraq 190 E6. Conclusion 192 F. Models from International Law 195 F 1. The nature of international law 195 F2. The law of international water resources 201 F3. The riparian approach to international law 208 F4. Conclusion 212 G. Factors Which Have an Impact on Domestic Policies and International Relations 216 G 1. Cognitive mapping 222 G2.1 Turkey's interests in the Euphrates water 223 G2.2 Syria's interests in the Euphrates water 228 G2.2 Iraq's interests in the Euphrates water 232 G3. Conclusion 236 H. Models from Geopolitical Science for the Explanation of Disputes 241 H 1. Quantitative indicator of the vulnerability due to water shortages 241 H2. Matrix Model 241 H3. Conclusion 253 I. Summary 255 Bibliography 268 5 Tables Table A. 1: Relative water availability 10 Table A.2: Global water use by sector per year 10 Table A.3: The increase of water consumption and irretrievable water losses over the world 12 Table A.4: Estimates of world water use in 1976 and projections for 2000 13 Table A.5: Average annual food trade deficits (1980-1984) 21 Table A.6: Average cost of food imports as a share of total exports 22 Table B.