China as a Neighbor: Central Asian Perspectives and Strategies Marlène Laruelle Sébastien Peyrouse China as a Neighbor: Central Asian Perspectives and Strategies Marlène Laruelle Sébastien Peyrouse © Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program – A Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center Johns Hopkins University-SAIS, 1619 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, D.C. 20036 Institute for Security and Development Policy, V. Finnbodav. 2, Stockholm-Nacka 13130, Sweden www.silkroadstudies.org "China as a Neighbor: Central Asian Perspectives and Strategies" is a Monograph published by the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and the Silk Road Studies Program. Monographs provide comprehensive analyses of key issues presented by leading experts. The Joint Center is a transatlantic independent and non-profit research and policy center. It has offices in Washington and Stockholm and is affiliated with the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies of Johns Hopkins University and the Stockholm-based Institute for Security and Development Policy. It is the first institution of its kind in Europe and North America, and is firmly established as a leading research and policy center, serving a large and diverse community of analysts, scholars, policy-watchers, business leaders, and journalists. The Joint Center is at the forefront of research on issues of conflict, security, and development in the region. Through its applied research, publications, research cooperation, public lectures, and seminars, it functions as a focal point for academic, policy, and public discussion regarding the region. This project was made possible with the support of the Smith Richardson Foundation. The opinions and conclusions expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and the Silk Road Studies Program. © Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, 2009 ISBN: 978-91-85937-56-1 Printed in Singapore Distributed in North America by: The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies 1619 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, D.C. 20036 Tel. +1-202-663-7723; Fax. +1-202-663-7785 E-mail: [email protected] Distributed in Europe by: The Silk Road Studies Program Institute for Security and Development Policy Västra Finnbodavägen 2, 131 30 Stockholm-Nacka, Sweden Email: [email protected] Editorial correspondence should be addressed to Svante E. Cornell, Research and Publications Director, at either of the addresses above. (preferably by email) Table of Contents Executive Summary ............................................................................................. 7 Introduction .......................................................................................................... 9 Soviet Legacy, Russian Influence, and the “Chinese Question” in Central Asia ..................................................................................................................... 9 Central Asian Strategies and Perspectives on the “Chinese Question” ..... 14 I. Russo-Chinese Cooperation/Competition in Central Asia ......................... 18 The Differing Historical Legacies of Russia and China in Central Asia ... 19 Russia: Advantages and Disadvantages of Post-Soviet Continuities ............... 20 China: Developing Good Neighborly Relations and Settling Border Disputes . 24 Russia and China: Sharing of Geopolitical Influence in Central Asia ....... 26 Common Political Objectives ........................................................................... 27 Russia: the Primary Strategic and Military Partner ....................................... 30 Is the SCO an Instrument of Chinese Interests or an Impediment to them? ..... 34 Russia/China: Economic Competition or Collaboration? ........................... 39 Russia/Central Asia and China/Central Asia: Comparable Commercial Flows? ............................................................................................................. 39 Energy Resources – the Primary Stake of Russia’s and China’s Presence in Central Asia ................................................................................................... 41 Hydroelectricity, Minerals and Transport Infrastructures .............................. 47 Are the Russian and Chinese Migration Flows in Central Asia Complementary? .............................................................................................. 52 Central Asia and its Re-entry into Russia’s Orbit via Migration .................... 53 Central Asia’s Concern over Chinese Migration Flows ................................... 56 Conclusion ....................................................................................................... 60 II. Political Debate and Expertise on China in Central Asia .......................... 63 China as Political Object: the Chinese Question in Central Asian Political Life ..................................................................................................................... 63 Are there any pro-Chinese Economic and Political Lobbies? ............................ 66 Political Tensions in Kazakhstan over the “Chinese Question” ....................... 72 Political Tensions in Kyrgyzstan over the “Chinese Question” ....................... 81 China as an Object of Scientific Inquiry: the Development of Sinology in Central Asian Expert Milieus ......................................................................... 91 The Difficulties of Launching Sinology in Academia....................................... 92 Public Research: The Institutes for Strategic Studies ..................................... 102 The Small Sector of Private Expertise ........................................................... 106 Conclusion ........................................................................................................ 111 III. Sinophilia/Sinophobia: A Double Narrative ........................................... 114 The Ambiguities of the Strategic and Geopolitical Partnership ................ 115 China: A Credible Partner in Matters of Security? .........................................115 The SCO – A Balancing Act for or against Central Asia’s Interests? .......... 120 The Economic Issue: Paradoxical Facets ...................................................... 130 A Promising Energy Partnership? ................................................................... 131 An Opportunity for Opening Up and for Development .................................. 133 The Restriction of Central Asian Economies to Primary Resources ................ 137 An Image Problem: China’s Products, Traders, and Companies ..................... 142 The Legacy of History and the Weight of Cultural Apprehensions ......... 145 The Thorny Border Question: Resolution or Stalemate? ................................ 146 Is China a Threat? Political Pressure and the Uyghur Question .................... 150 China as Empire: A Culturally Entrenched Suspicion .................................... 155 The Stakes of Migration: the Recurrent Topic of the “Yellow Peril” ............. 159 Conclusion ...................................................................................................... 167 Conclusions ....................................................................................................... 170 Central Asian Views of the Competition/Collaboration between Moscow and Beijing ............................................................................................................ 170 Differencing Viewpoints between Central Asian States ................................. 173 On Sinophobe and Sinophile Lobbies .............................................................. 176 The Viewpoints of Central Asian Think Tanks ............................................. 178 Generational Differences: The Youth’s View of China ................................. 180 What are the Policy Implications of this Analysis? ........................................ 182 Bibliography ...................................................................................................... 186 About the Authors ........................................................................................... 200 Executive Summary Since 2000, China has gained significantly in importance in Central Asia and is now in a position to pose a threat to traditional Russian domination in the region. Exactly how China will intensify its presence in Central Asia and how this alliance/competition with Russia will play itself out is going to depend partly on the approaches and attitudes of the Central Asian states themselves. For this reason, it is essential to comprehend not only Chinese and Russian objectives in the region, but also to look at the indigenous viewpoints of Central Asian governments, their visions of the world, and their room for initiative on political and geopolitical issues. Existing publications on the topic of China-Central Asian relations are generally limited to discussing energy issues (collaboration on hydrocarbons) and security questions (the collective management of terrorist threats), and for the most part only present Russian and Chinese viewpoints. The objective of this Silk Road Monograph is to go beyond this first level of analysis by giving a voice to those most concerned by these issues, namely the Central Asians, paying special attention to their views of the “Chinese question”. Studying domestic