Report A: The telecommunications market Project: Mid-term forecasting of electronic Communication markets development in Croatia Contracting Authority: Central Financing and Contracting Agency, Zagreb, Croatia Mid-term forecasting of electronic communication markets development in Croatia LOT 3 Framework contract Beneficiaries EUROPEAID/119860/C/SV/multi “Mid-term forecasting of electronic communication markets development in Croatia” Letter of Contract N. 2006– 0707-0315 Report A report on the situation on the telecommunications sector and importance of telecommunications in the Croatian economy June 2009 Version v final Lot 3: Telecommunications and Information Technologies 1 Report A: The telecommunications market Project: Mid-term forecasting of electronic Communication markets development in Croatia Project Title: Mid-term forecasting of electronic communication markets development in Croatia Project Number: 2006– 0707-0315 Country: Republic of Croatia Beneficiary Institution Project manager Task manager Name: Croatian Agency for Central Finance European Commission Post and Electronic and Contracting Delegation to the Communications Agency (CFCA) Republic of Croatia (HAKOM) Address: Jurišićeva 13, Ulica grada Trg žrtava fašizma 6 10 000 Zagreb Vukovara 284, 10 000 Zagreb Croatia 10 000 Zagreb Croatia Contact person: Mr. Juraj Mužina Mr. Damir Mrs. Karin Lindblad Novaković Tel. number: +385 1 489 60 10 + 385 1 4591 233 +385 1 4896 585 Fax number: +385 1 492 02 27 + 385 1 4592 075 385 1 4896 555 E-mail Juraj.muzina@telekom. Damir.novakovic [email protected] hr @safu.hr pa.eu consultant experts Team leader Expert II Expert III Name: A.R.S. Progetti Address: Ars Progetti S.p.A Bruxelles Liaison Office Rue d'Egmont 15 1000 Brussels Belgium Contact person: Marilena di Stasi Ton de Liefde Gerard Ville Pilviö Arendsen Tel. number: 0032 2 500 85 32 0955 215 541 0959 224 201 0955 214 140 (when in HR) (when in HR) (when in HR) +31654981825 +31475537288 +358400539942 (outside HR) (outside HR) (outside HR) Fax number: 0032 2 511 24 08 E-mail m.distasi@ [email protected] gerardarends [email protected] arsprogetti.com [email protected] m Date of report: 9 June 2009 Authors of report: Gerard Arendsen, Team members Version: v final 2 Report A: The telecommunications market Project: Mid-term forecasting of electronic Communication markets development in Croatia Table of contents 1 LIST OF TABLES, FIGURES AD BOXES.................................................................................... 5 1.1 LIST OF TABLES: ................................................................................................................................................ 5 1.2 LIST OF FIGURES:............................................................................................................................................... 5 1.3 LIST OF BOXES: ................................................................................................................................................. 6 2 MAJOR FIDIGS............................................................................................................................. 7 2.1 WITH REGARDS TO THE PRESENT MARKET AND THE DEVELOPMENTS 2006 UNTIL 2008: ...................................7 2.2 WITH REGARDS TO THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENTS 2009 UNTIL 2011: .............................................................7 2.3 WITH REGARDS TO THE CONTRIBUTION OF THE COMMUNICATIONS SECTOR TO THE CROATIAN ECONOMY:..... 8 2.4 WITH REGARDS TO CROATIA AND THE OTHER COUNTRIES IN THE REGION: ....................................................... 8 3 OBJECTIVES OF THE PROJECT ................................................................................................. 10 4 THE ECOOMY ............................................................................................................................... 11 4.1 THE MACRO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS INCL. FORECASTS ACCORDING THE IMF........................................ 11 5 THE TELECOMMUICATIOS MARKET ................................................................................ 14 5.1 THE MARKET FOR TELECOMMUNICATIONS SERVICES..................................................................................... 14 5.2 THE FIXED TELEPHONY MARKET.................................................................................................................... 21 5.3 THE MOBILE TELEPHONY MARKET................................................................................................................. 30 5.4 THE MARKET FOR INTERNET ACCESS .............................................................................................................. 37 5.5 THE MARKET FOR LEASED LINES.................................................................................................................... 43 5.6 THE CATV MARKET....................................................................................................................................... 45 6 COTRIBUTIO OF THE COMMUICATIOS SECTOR TO THE CROATIA ECOOMY......................................................................................................................................... 47 7 BECHMARKIG ICT MARKETS CROATIA........................................................................... 51 7.1 THE ICT PRICE BASKET. .................................................................................................................................. 51 7.2 THE USAGE OF INTERNET BY ENTERPRISES...................................................................................................... 52 7.3 BENCHMARKING ICT CROATIA BASED ON NETWORK READINESS, GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS AND EASE OF DOING BUSINESS INDEX. ............................................................................................................................ 52 3 Report A: The telecommunications market Project: Mid-term forecasting of electronic Communication markets development in Croatia AEX 1: AALYSIS FIXED TELEPHOY MARKET................................................................................ 54 AEX 2: MOBILE TELEPHOY MARKET................................................................................................. 68 AEX 3: AALYSIS ITERET ACCESS MARKET ................................................................................ 71 AEX 4: SOME BECHMARKIG RESULTS CROATIA AD OTHER EAST AD SOUTH- EUROPEA COUTRIES............................................................................................................... 74 4 Report A: The telecommunications market Project: Mid-term forecasting of electronic Communication markets development in Croatia 1 List of tables, figures and boxes 1.1 List of tables: Table 1: Macro-Economic Overview Republic of Croatia and forecast 2009 and 2010 Table 2: The Market for Telecommunications Services Period 2006 until 2008 Table 3: Telecom subscribers in Croatia Period 2006 until 2008 Table 4: Forecast of the Telecommunications Market until 2001 Table 5: The Fixed Telephony Market Period 2006 until 2008 Table 6: The Fixed Telephony Subscribers Period 2006 until 2008 Table 7: Financial Performance HT within the market for Fixed Telephony and in comparison with its major competitors Period 2006 until 2008 Table 8: Forecast of the Fixed Telephony Market Period 2009 until 2011. Table 9: The Mobile Telephony Market Period 2006 until 2008 Table 10: Revenues and costs per employee mobile operators Period 2006 until 2008 Table 11: Forecast of the Market for Mobile Telephony Period 2009 until 2011 Table 12: The Market for Internet Access Period 2006 until 2008 Table 13: Forecast for the Market for Internet Access Period 2009 until 2011 Table 14: The Market for Leased Lines Period 2006 until 2008 Table 15: Market shares Leased Line Market Period 2006 until 2008 Table 16: Forecast of the Market for Leased Lines Period 2009 until 2011 Table 17: The CATV Market Period 2006 until 2008 Table 18: Forecast of the CATV Market Period 2009 until 2011 Table 19: The Contribution of the Communications Sector to the Croatian Economy Period 2006 until 2008 Table 20: The Importance of the Communications Sector for the Labor Market Period 2006 until 2008 Table 21: ICT Price Basket 2008 Table 22: The use of Internet by enterprises in the Region-2008 1.2 List of figures: Figure 1: Gross Domestic Product based on purchasing- power- parity (PPP) per capita GDP Figure 2: The Market for Telecommunications Services based on revenues Figure 3: Development Tele-density and Internet density Figure 4: The overall Market share of HT in the Croatian Telecommunications Market, based on revenues-2008 Figure 5: Strategic Mapping Position HT in the Croatian Telecommunications Market. Figure 6: The Market for Telecommunications services and forecast for Period 2009 until 2011 based on revenues Figure 7: Fixed Telephony Traffic Volumes by Segment Figure 8: The Fixed Telephony Market by major segment Figure 9: Market shares of HT in the Markets for Fixed Telephony Traffic and based on traffic volumes. Figure 10: Market shares HT in the markets for Fixed Telephony by major segment and based on revenues Figure 11: Market shares HT by subscriber category Figure 12: The Investments in the Fixed Telephony Infrastructure and equipment by operator (Mill Figure 13: Mobile telephony traffic in minutes per subscriber and by operator Figure 14: Number of SMS messages per subscriber and by operator Figure 15: Market shares mobile telephony subscribers by operator. Figure 16: UMTS subscribers by operator Figure 17: