Government of India / भारत सरकार Ministry of Earth Sciences / पृ वी वान मंालय India Meteorological Department / भारत मौसम वान वभाग मौसमवानके ,बेगुपेटएअरपोट ,हैदराबाद - 500 016. Meteorological Centre, Begumpet Airport, Hyderabad-500 016 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thursday,30 Sept 2021 िवारतरज फॉरेै फ़र तेलंगाना EXTENDED RANGE FORECASTFOR TELANGANA (वतमान मौसम की थित और अगले दोह ों के िलए िकोण) (Current weather status & outlook for next two weeks) DATE INTENSITY OF DISTRICT RAINFALL 23.09.2021 HEAVY Sangareddy and Narayanpet 24.09.2021 HEAVY Y.Bhuvanagiri 25.09.2021 HEAVY Sangareddy and Jagtial 26.09.2021 HEAVY Hyderabad, Sangareddy, Kamareddy and Nalgonda 27.09.2021 HEAVY Khammam, B.Kothagudem, Mahabubabad, Adilabad and Kamareddy 28.09.2021 EXTREMELY Nizamabad HEAVY VERY HEAVY at many places in Nizamabada and Nirmal Distrcts, at a few places in Rajanna Sircilla and J.Bhupalpally distrcts,at isolated places in Karimnagar, Kamareddy, Jagtial and Peddapalle. HEAVY at most places in peddapalle district, at many places in Karimnagar, Kamareddy, Mulug, R.sirsilla and J.Bhupalpalle districts, at a few places occurred in B.Kothagudem, Warangal Rural, Medak, Rangareddy, M.Malkajgiri and at isolated places in Nizamabad,Nirmal, Jagtial,Khamma, Adilabad, Vikarabad, Mahabubad, Siddipet and Sangareddy Rainfall occurred at most places on two days and at few places on three days and at a few places on two days during last week over Telangana. 29-09-2021 को समात सताह के लए वषा वतरण Rainfall distribution for the week ending 29-09-2021 Date 23-Sep 21 24-Sep 21 25-Sep 21 26-Sep 21 27-Sep 21 28-Sep 21 29-Sept 21 TLNG FWS FWS SCT FWS/ACT WS/ACT WS/VIG SCT Legend for Rainfall distribution: DRY : no rain, ISOL : isolated places (<=25% stations), SCT : few places(26-50% stations), WS : most places(>75% stations), FWS : many places(51-75% stations). मु यसामयक वशेषताएं औरसंबधमौसम: CHIEF SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER: The cyclonic circulation over lies over south Chhattisgarh & neighbourhood and extends upto 5.8 km above mean sea level ,The cyclonic circulation over Myanmar coast & adjoining Gulf of Martaban extending upto mid tropospheric levels and A cyclonic circulation lies over Telangana & neighbourhood between 3.1 & 4.5 km above mean sea level on 23rd, Under the influence of the cyclonic circulation, a Low Pressure Area has formed over eastcentral Bay of Bengal and neighborhood. It intensified into a Well marked LOPAR at 11:30 IST and concentrated into a Depression and lay centered at 1730 hrs IST , , over east­central and adjoining northeast Bay of Bengal about 670 km east­southeast of Gopalpur (Odisha) & 740 km east of Kalingapatnam (Andhra Pradesh) and A cyclonic circulation lies over south Coastal Andhra Pradesh & neighbourhood between 1.5 km & 2.1 km above mean sea level on 24th,it intensified into a Deep Depression over north and adjoining central Bay of Bengal moved westwards and lay centered at 0530 hrs IST of 25th September 2021, over northwest and adjoining westcentral Bay of Bengal about 470 km eastsoutheast of Gopalpur (Odisha) & 540 km east­northeast of Kalingapatnam (Andhra Pradesh) on 25th .it intensified further and formed as a Cyclonic Storm ‘Gulab’ (pronounced as Gul-Aab) over northwest and adjoining westcentral Bay of Bengal moved nearly westwards with a speed of 24 kmph during last 06 hours and lay centered at 1730 hrs IST of 26th September 2021, over northwest and adjoining westcentral Bay of Bengal near Lat. 18.4°N and Long. 84.6°E, about 100 km south­southwest of Gopalpur (Odisha) & 50 km eastnortheast of Kalingapatnam (Andhra Pradesh). The system is lying close to coast and the centre is about 30 km to the east of the expected landfall point .The system crossed the coast north of Kalingapatnam on 26th Night as a Cyclonic Storm and weakend in to a Deep Depression , lay centered at 0830 hrs IST of 27th over south Odisha and adjoining south Chhattisgarh near Lat. 18.4°N and Long. 82.5°E, about 90 km southeast of Jagdalpur (Chhattisgarh) and 65 km east­northeast of Malkangiri (Odisha) on 27th Morning The Deep Depression moved west north­westwards with a speed of 33 kmph and weakened into a Depression and lay centered at 1730hrs IST of 27th over north Telangana and adjoining south Chhattisgarh & Vidarbha near Lat. 18.6°N and Long. 80.1°E, about 65km east­southeast of Ramagundam (Telangana) and 125 km northeast of Bhadrachalam (Telangana) it moved west north westwards with a speed of 26 kmph and lay centered at 0830 hrs IST of 28th over southwest Vidarbha & neighbourhood near Lat. 19.4°N and Long. 77.3°E, about 60 km eastnortheast of Parbhani (Marathwada) and 250 km southwest of Nagpur (Vidarbha). It moved westnorthwestwards and further weaken into a Well Marked Low Pressure Area and lies over north west Vidharba on 28th Evening and Moved away from the Telangana Region and The east¬west trough from north Konkan to cyclonic circulation associated with depression over north Telangana and adjoining south Chhattisgarh & Vidarbha extending upto 5.8 km above mean sea level . The cyclonic circulation over Eastcentral & adjoining Northeast Bay of Bengal off Myanmar coast extending upto mid­tropospheric levels persists on 27th . The Low Pressure Area over southern parts of Gangetic West Bengal & neighbourhood with the associated cyclonic circulation extending upto 5.8 km above mean sea level persists tilting southwestwards with height. A trough runs from cyclonic circulation associated with the Low Pressure Area over southern parts of Gangetic West Bengal & neighbourhood to Telangana across interior Odisha at 3.1 km above mean sea level on 27th , Under the influence of the cyclonic circulation over Northeast & adjoining Eastcentral Bay of Bengal, a Low Pressure Area has formed over Northwest Bay of Bengal & adjoining coastal areas of West Bengal. The associated cyclonic circulation extends upto midtropospheric levels on 28th it intensified into a Well Marked LOPAR over the central parts of Gangetic West Bengal on 28th Evening and lies over western parts of Gangetic West Bengal and neighborhood and the associated cyclonic circulation extends upto mid­tropospheric levels on 29th September2021. िवक वषा पर / Realized rainfall scenario: साािहकवषापर (23 सेटेबर से 29 सेटेबर 2021): During the recent past week, actual rainfall was 96.6mm against normal rainfall 32.9mm, which was above normal Long Period Average (LPA) by 194% over the state Telangana as a whole. Out of total 33 districts, 27 district received Large excess rainfall, 02 district received excess rainfall,01 district received normal rainfall,1 district received deficient rainfall and 02 districts received large deficient rainfall during the recent past week State Actual Normal % Departure category Rainfall(mm) Rainfall(mm) Telangana 96.6 32.9 194% Large Excess मौसमी वषा पर (01 जून से 29 सेटेबर, 2021): Seasonal Rainfall Scenario (01 June to 29 Sept , 2021): For the state as a whole, cumulative rainfall during this season from 1stJune–th 29 Sept 2021 was 1044.5 mm against normal rainfall 746.6 mm, which was above Long Period Average (LPA) by 40% over the state as a whole. Out of total 33 districts, 10 districts received Large excess rainfall, 16 districts received excess rainfall and 07 districts received Normal rainfall during the recent past week. State Actual Normal % Departure category Rainfall(mm) Rainfall(mm) Telangana 1044.5 746.6 40% Excess **[For Rainfall: Large Excess:> +60% from normal; Excess: +20% to +59% from normal; Normal: ­19% to +19%; Deficient: ­20% to ­59% from normal; Large Deficient: >= ­ 60% from normal] 30 सेटेबर, 2021 को मु य समकालक िथत /Chief synoptic conditions as on 30 Sept, 2021: The Depression over northeast Arabian Sea & adjoining Kutch moved nearly westwards with a speed about 28 kmph during past 03 hours and lay centered at 0830 hours IST of today, the 30th September 2021, over northeast Arabian Sea off Gujarat coast, near Lat. 22.7° N and Long. 68.6° E, about 60 km west­northwest of Devbhoomi Dwarka (Gujarat), 280 km east­southeast of Karachi (Pakistan) and 860 km east­southeast of Chabahar Port (Iran). It is very likely to move west­northwestwards and intensify into Deep Depression over northeast Arabian Sea off north Gujarat coast during next 12 hours. Then it is very likely to move further west­northwestwards and intensify into a Cyclonic Storm during the subsequent 24 hours. Thereafter, it is likely to continue to move west­northwestwards close to Pakistan­Makran coasts, moving away from the the Indian coast. The Well Marked Low Pressure Area over northwest Jharkhand & neighbourhood now lies over north Jharkhand & adjoining Bihar and the associated cyclonic circulation extends upto 7.6 km above mean sea level. बड़े पैमानेपरसुिवधाएँ / Large scale features ➢Currently cool ENSO neutral conditions prevailing over equatorial Pacific Ocean and negative IOD conditions over the Indian Ocean. The sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over central and east equatorial Pacific Ocean are showing cooling tendency and the latest global model forecasts indicate that there is an increased possibility of re­emergence of the La Niña conditions during northeast monsoon season. The negative IOD conditions are likely to weaken during the coming months. ➢ The madden Julian oscillation (MJO) index currently lies in Phase 4 with amplitude more than 1. It will continue in same phase on day 1 of week 1. Thereafter, it will move eastwards and enter into phase 5. It will continue in same phase during the entire forecast period. Hence it will support convective activity over the Bay of Bengal during weeks 1 & 2 अगलेदोसाहकेिलएपूवानुमान / Forecast for next two weeks Under the influence of the present synoptic features, dynamical scenario and model guidance – (i) साह 1 केिलएवषाकापूवानुमान: (01 अतबू र,से 07 अतबू र 2021) Rainfall forecast for week 1:( 01 Oct , 2021 to 07 Oct, 2021) Light to Moderate rainfall likely to occur at isolated places over Telangana during week 1 Cumulatively likely to be normal rainfall over Telangana during week 1.