CSIS_______________________________ Center for Strategic and International Studies 1800 K Street N.W. Washington, DC 20006 (202) 775-3270 Updates from: CSIS.ORG, “Homeland Defense” Comments to: [email protected] DEFENDING AMERICA ASYMMETRIC AND TERRORIST ATTACKS WITH BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS Anthony H. Cordesman Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy SEPTEMBER 24, 2001 Copyright CSIS, all rights reserved. CSIS Homeland Defense: Asymmetric Warfare & Terrorism 9/24/01 Page ii Acknowledgements The author would like to thank Linnea Raines ,Andrew Li, Preston Golson. and Aviva Roller for their assistance in researching and editing this report Copyright CSIS, all rights reserved. CSIS Homeland Defense: Asymmetric Warfare & Terrorism 9/24/01 Page iii Table of Contents ASYMMETRIC AND TERRORIST ATTACKS WITH BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS ........................................ I TYPES OF ATTACK: DETERMINING FUTURE METHODS OF ATTACK AND THE NEEDED RESPONSE..................................................................................................................................................................1 ILLUSTRATIVE ATTACK SCENARIOS ..........................................................................................................................3 “CONVENTIONAL” MEANS OF ATTACK .....................................................................................................................6 WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION............................................................................................................................8 BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS AS MEANS OF ATTACK ........................................................................................15 CATEGORIZING THE BIOLOGICAL THREAT...............................................................................................................16 Case Studies: Iraq and Russia ...........................................................................................................................22 State Actor, Proxy, and Terrorist/Extremist Incidents to Date ..........................................................................25 The Yugoslav Smallpox Incident ........................................................................................................................28 Cases in the US ..................................................................................................................................................29 THE LETHALITY AND EFFECTIVENESS OF CURRENT BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS...........................................................29 ANTHRAX AS A CASE EXAMPLE ..............................................................................................................................30 BOTULISM AS A CASE EXAMPLE..............................................................................................................................33 PLAGUE AS A CASE EXAMPLE..................................................................................................................................33 SMALLPOX AS A CASE EXAMPLE .............................................................................................................................35 DETECT, DEFEND, AND RESPOND TO WHAT?..........................................................................................................36 MEANS OF DELIVERY ..............................................................................................................................................37 MANUFACTURING BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS ..............................................................................................................39 Changes in Technology and the Difficulty of Manufacture................................................................................43 The Growing Lethality of Biological Weapons and Growing Ease of Manufacture..........................................46 New Types of Biological Weapons.....................................................................................................................47 CHANGES IN DISEASE: PIGGYBACKING ON THE THREAT FROM NATURE .................................................................47 Agricultural and Ecological Attacks..................................................................................................................51 THE PROBLEM OF RESPONSE ...................................................................................................................................55 Funding Half-Measures and False Solutions?...................................................................................................56 The Need for Constantly Updated Net Technical Assessments ..........................................................................63 Reconsidering the Practical Problems in Defense and Response......................................................................64 The Problem of Large-Scale or Highly Efficient Attacks...................................................................................65 Copyright CSIS, all rights reserved. CSIS Homeland Defense: Asymmetric Warfare & Terrorism 9/24/01 Page iv Other Problems in the Present Response Effort.................................................................................................68 Cost-Effectiveness of Real-World Options.........................................................................................................69 China ......................................................................................................................................................................... 74 India........................................................................................................................................................................... 74 Iran............................................................................................................................................................................. 74 Iraq............................................................................................................................................................................. 74 Libya.......................................................................................................................................................................... 75 North Korea............................................................................................................................................................... 75 Pakistan...................................................................................................................................................................... 75 Russia ........................................................................................................................................................................ 75 Syria........................................................................................................................................................................... 76 Copyright CSIS, all rights reserved. CSIS Homeland Defense: Asymmetric Warfare & Terrorism 9/24/01 Page v List of Charts, Tables, and Figures Table 2.1...................................................................................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined. Attacks on the US Homeland versus Attacks on Other Regions ................................. Error! Bookmark not defined. Table 2.2...................................................................................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined. Patterns in Total International and US Casualties from International Terrorism – Part OneError! Bookmark not defined. Table 2.2...................................................................................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined. Patterns in Total International and US Casualties from International Terrorism – Part TwoError! Bookmark not defined. Chart 2.1 ...................................................................................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined. Terrorist Incidents Involving Americans vs. Total Incidents ...................................... Error! Bookmark not defined. Chart 2.2 ...................................................................................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined. Terrorist Incidents in the US: 1980-2000 .................................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined. Chart 2.3 ...................................................................................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined. Terrorist Casualties Involving Americans: 1987-1999................................................ Error! Bookmark not defined. Chart 2.4 ...................................................................................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined. Anti-US Attacks by Region: 1994-1999...................................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined. Table 3.1...................................................................................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined. Global Challenges: Who Has Weapons of Mass Destruction?.................................... Error! Bookmark not defined. Table 3.2.....................................................................................................................