2012 disputes non-violent crises violent crises limited wars wars NO. 21 VIOLENT CONFLICTS IN 2012 ON NATIONAL LEVEL : NO VIOLENT CONFLICT : VIOLENT CRISIS : LIMITED WAR : WAR GLOBAL CONFLICT PANORAMA GLOBAL CONFLICT PANORAMA GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT in 2012, a total of 396 conflicts was counted, marking a rise by two levels to violent crises, and two slightly de-escalated to nine compared to 2011. Among these were eighteen wars and limited wars. The war between the SPLM/A and the Sudane- 25 limited wars, amounting to 43 highly violent conflicts.a no- se government had already ended in 2011 with the secession ther 165 conflicts were classified as violent crises. The num- of South Sudan. Of the 2011 wars associated with the Arab ber of wars compared to last year’s all-time high of twenty de- Spring, only the one in Syria continued on the same level of creased by two. However, the number of limited wars rose by intensity. Egypt (opposition groups) and Yemen (opposition six and the number of violent crises was extended by ten from groups) de-escalated to violent crises, and Libya (opposition) 155 to 165. Overall, 208 conflicts, more than half of those de-ecalated to a limited war. However, a new highly violent observed, were conducted with the use of violence, thereby conflict closely connected to the Libyan opposition conflict being the highest number of violent conflicts ever observed. erupted [1 Libya (inter-factional violence)]. Furthermore, the in contrast, 188 non-violent conflicts were counted, subdivi- conflicts Nigeria (Northerners - Southerners) andc ôte d’ivoire ded into 105 disputes and 83 non-violent crises. The number (opposition), both having been closely related to national of non-violent conflicts remained stable, marking only a slight elections in 2011, de-escalated from wars to violent crises. change from 193 to 188. Of the eighteen wars observed, ele- additionally, the war between different ethnic groups in the ven remained on the same level of intensity compared to the Sindh Province, Pakistan, de-escalated by one level, while the previous year, among them four in Sub-Saharan Africa, i.e. So- conflicts Myanmar (KNu, KNLa, DKba brigade 5 / Karen State, malia (Islamist groups), Nigeria (Boko Haram), Sudan (Darfur), Kaya State) and South Sudan (various militias) de-escalated by and South Sudan (inter-ethnic violence). two. A further five wars remained at war level in the Middle East Of the 25 limited wars observed, two were wars in the pre- and Maghreb, namely Afghanistan (Taliban et al.), Iraq (Sunni vious year, nine had already been on this level of intensity, militant groups), Turkey (PKK) , Yemen (AQAP, Ansar al-Sharia) and ten saw a significant escalation by two levels. furthermo- and Syria (opposition groups). Similarly, one war continued re, four conflicts erupted in 2012 on the level of a limited war, in both the Americas as well as Asia and Oceania. [1 Mexico i.e. Mali (Islamist groups - MNLA), Libya (inter-factional vio- (drug cartels), Pakistan (Islamist militant groups)]. Seven con- lence), Tajikistan (Gorno-Badakshan), and Myanmar (Buddhists flicts escalated to wars in 2012, among them three former li- - Rohingyas / Rakhine State). mited wars: Myanmar (KIA, KIO / Kachin State), Sudan (SPLM/A- The total number of conflicts rose by nine, since sixteen North / South Kordofan, Blue Nile) and Sudan - South Sudan, conflicts erupted in 2012 and seven were considered to have the last being the only highly violent interstate conflict. Mali ended in 2011. a further two conflicts ended in 2012, namely (MNLA, Ansar al-Din / Azawad) and Nigeria (farmers - pastora- Malawi (opposition) and Colombia - Venezuela (system). Six lists) accounted for the only two former violent crises to esca- new conflicts erupted in the americas, among them two bet- late by two levels to wars. another two conflicts saw a steep ween police personnel and the governments in Bolivia and escalation from a non-violent level to a war [1 India (ULFA et Brazil, respectively. Honduras and El Salvador saw the erupti- al. - Biharis, Bengalis), DR Congo (CNDP/M23)]. The most fatal on of one new violent conflict each, both involving organized of 2012’s wars was the opposition conflict in Syria with ap- crime [1 honduras (drug trafficking organizations, organized prox. 55,000 fatalities, followed by the drug-related violence crime), El Salvador (Maras)]. in Mexico, which caused the death of at least 12,000. In addition, a new violent conflict between militant groups Of last year’s wars, six saw a significant de-escalation by and the Nicaraguan government over the orientation of the GLOBAL CONFLICT INTENSITIES IN GLOBAL CONFLICTS OF LOW, MEDIUM AND HIGH 2012 COMPARED TO 2011 INTENSITY 1945 TO 2012 2012 : low Intensity : 2011 : medium Intensity : 165 high Intensity : 155 200 106105 150 87 83 100 25 50 19 20 18 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 dispute non-violent crisis violent crisis limited war war 2 GLOBAL CONFLICT PANORAMA political system erupted, as well as one non-violent oppositi- In order to better analyze a long-term trend, the five in- on conflict in Paraguay [1 Nicaragua (militant groups), Paragu- tensity levels were categorized into three groups: The two ay (impeachment)]. non-violent levels were summarized as low intensity conflicts, In Europe, in demonstrations by the Romanian opposition, while limited wars and wars as conflicts of high intensity. Vio- hundreds were injured, thus establishing a new violent crisis lent crises were labeled medium intensity conflicts. [1 Romania (opposition movement)]. As the graph below shows, the number of conflicts obser- Another violent crisis over resources erupted in Myanmar, ved rose more or less continuously from 83 in 1945 to 396 adding to the aforementioned limited war [1 Myanmar (far- in 2012. However, this increase must be partly attributed to mers et al. / Sagaing Region)]. improved availability of information on current conflicts in In addition to the inter-factional violence in Libya, the recent decades. With regard to high intensity conflicts, their Middle East and Maghreb accounted for three new conflicts number increased almost constantly until 1992, when an all- with an autonomy conflict in Libya, an opposition conflict in time high was reached with 51 high intensity conflicts short- Kuwait and a conflict between Kurds and the anti-assad coali- ly after the decline of the Soviet Union and the breakup of tion in Syria [1 Libya (Federalists / Cyrenaica), Kuwait (opposi- Yugoslavia. Afterwards, its number dropped sharply, but then tion movement), Syria (NC - KSC)]. rose again until it reached 45 in 2003. In the following eight Africa saw the eruption of two new conflicts in Mali. The years, the number of highly-violent conflicts ranged between first was Mali (coup plotters), which was then followed by the 31 and 41. While 2011 saw the highest number of wars, 2012 escalation of several conflicts and the likewise eruption of the accounted for the highest number of highly violent conflicts other new conflict Mali (islamist groups - MNLa). since 2003 with a total of 43. ANALYSIS INTRASTATE – INTERSTATE The amount of intrastate conflicts increased from 303 to 314, Seven other interstate conflicts were conducted with the use while the number of interstate conflicts decreased by two of violence, with Syria accounting for violent conflicts with from 84 to 82. While five intrastate conflicts had ended in neighboring Turkey and Israel. Several cross-border incidents 2011, sixteen new domestic conflicts erupted in 2012, there- took place between the Syrian army and Israeli and Turkish by marking an increase by eleven. Thus, as in previous years, troops in the course of intensified fighting in the ongoing about 80 percent of all conflicts were domestic. Syrian opposition conflict [1 Syria – Israel, Syria – Turkey] The escalation between Sudan and South Sudan resulted Pakistan also accounted for two violent interstate conflicts in the first interstate war since the confrontation between [1 Afghanistan – Pakistan, Pakistan – India]. In the Americas, Russia and Georgia in 2008. In the aftermath of the 2011 violence occurred in two border conflicts [1 USA – Mexico secession of South Sudan, tensions over contested border (border security), Guatemala – Belize (territory)]. The crisis areas and the oil-rich Higlig region led to heavy bombing over the Nagorno-Karabakh region between Armenia and campaigns and several ten thousands displaced, reaching a azerbaijan remained the sole violent interstate conflict in Eu- peak in april with intense fighting overh iglig [1 Sudan – Sou- rope. in spite of the cease-fire agreement, several clashes and th Sudan]. The conflict between the Democratic republic of sniper attacks killed at least eight people in the course of the the congo and rwanda over influence in the Kivu region con- year. The conflict between Thailand andc ambodia, extending stituted the second violent interstate confrontation in Sub- to a limited war in 2011, decreased to a non-violent crisis Saharan Africa. [1 Thailand – Cambodia (border)]. Number of INtra- aNd INterstate CoNflICts IN INtra- aNd INterstate CoNflICts of hIgh INteNsIty 2012 BY INTENSITY LEVEL 1945 TO 2012 intrastate : intrastate : interstate : interstate : 157 50 40 30 59 56 46 20 27 25 17 8 0 1 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 dispute non-violent crisis violent crisis limited war war 3 GLOBAL CONFLICT PANORAMA The average intensity calculated for all domestic conflicts lysis of conflicts in 1945. The same long-term observation pe- observed (2.63) was approx. one intensity level higher than riod, for which purpose both limited wars and wars were com- that of interstate conflicts (1.57). apart from the higher mean piled in one group of high intensity conflicts, clearly shows intensity, intrastate conflicts also preserved a higher total that the intrastate dominance among the highly violent con- number of conflicts since the beginning of the long-term ana- flicts sustained.