Discript Postscript CRC Stage: Final page Date: 14/04/04 File: {CPR}3B2FILES/THIRD/3P27E-01.3D.3D Folio: 71 Black plate (71,1) A third survey, collected only in semi- arid rural Andhra Pradesh and Mahara- shtra, found that over one-fifth of the population was poor in all nine years be- Understanding tween 1975/6 and 1983/4, while 60% were poor in at least five of nine years.5 chronic poverty in Further analysis of this dataset suggested South Asia that even relatively affluent households 7 are highly vulnerable to long spells of poverty when severe crop shocks occur.6 The Indian National Sample Survey South Asia has the largest number of chronically poor people in the world – reported that the number of poor people an estimated 135 to 190 million people. Chronic poverty in the region is increased by 13 million between 1987– most pronounced in areas that have significant minority populations,1 that 88 and 1993–94, while data from 1999– are economically stagnant, where agrarian class structures and gender 2000 shows a very large reduction in the relations are exploitative, and where governance is weak. second half of the decade. This finding is intensely disputed, however, due to Poverty trends in South years of war have obstructed almost changes in the way the national figures Asia all potential progress. have been calculated, and as such it re- . 44% of the population of India lives mains difficult to estimate the absolute below the international US$1/day pov- How many people are numbers of chronically poor people today. Due to the very nature of chronic erty line. chronically poor in South . In Nepal, Pakistan and Bangladesh the poverty, however, it is unlikely that the figures are also relatively high (at Asia? proportion of people in chronic poverty 38%, 31% and 29% respectively). The number of recent, high quality, rep- has declined at anything like the rates of . In Bhutan and Afghanistan, where resentative and comparable panel sur- poverty in general. data is unavailable, the proportion of veys available to determine the extent of For instance, village-level research in people living on US$1/day is likely chronic poverty is very limited. Best esti- Rajasthan, where headcount poverty has comparable and much higher, mates suggest that about one-third of the unambiguously declined, suggested that respectively. poor population in South Asia is about 18% of the total population was . Internationally, South Asia has the chronically poor – between 135 and 190 poor both 25 years ago and in 2002. worst indicators of stunting and fe- million people, of whom 110–160 mil- This figure ranged from 8% to 31% male illiteracy, and very poor rates of lion are Indians. Bangladesh and Paki- across districts, and was highest among child mortality and female illiteracy. stan account for the majority of the scheduled tribes, more than two-thirds . The headcount ratio for the chronic- remainder. of whom had stayed in poverty over the ally poor has been declining in many A survey of rural Bangladesh suggests past 25 years.7 parts of the region – particularly in that close to one-third of the rural popu- For Pakistan, a significant amount of southern and western India, and in lation was poor in both 1987/8 and analysis has been undertaken using one Bangladesh. 2000.2 In India, two national sample sur- particular dataset.8 Different approaches . Most human development indicators veys suggest that in the late 1960s3 and to defining chronic poverty and the pov- also have improved over the past two between 1970 and 19814, almost half erty line have led to a wide range of esti- decades, although in Afghanistan the rural poor were chronically poor. mates of chronic poverty. The best all- Figure 7.1 Chronic poverty in South Asia Over one-third of the world’s About one in every chronically poor live in India, About one in every 3 or 4 poor people and almost half live in 8 people in South Asia in South Asia is South Asia as a whole is chronically poor chronically poor India South Asia excluding India Discript Postscript CRC Stage: Final page Date: 14/04/04 File: {CPR}3B2FILES/THIRD/3P27E-01.3D.3D Folio: 72 Black plate (72,1) 72 . Chapter 7 Table 7.1 Summary of poverty indicators for South Asia Average depth of poverty (the number of Under-five Percentage percentage mortality Infant Proportion of people points by which rate mortality of children Life Adult Adult living on the poor fall (per 1,000 rate (per under 5 expectancy, Life illiteracy illiteracy less than below the live births) 1,000 live who are female, expectancy, rate, female, rate, male, US$1/daya poverty line)a 2001 births) 2000 stunteda 2000 male, 2000 2000 2000 Afghanistan – – 257 165 52.0b –––– Bangladesh 36.0 22.5 77 54 44.8 59.5 59.4 70.1 47.7 Bhutan – – 95 77 40.0b 63.3 60.8 – – India 44.2 27.1 93 69 45.5b 63.8 62.8 54.6 31.6 Maldives – – 77 59 26.9 65.8 67.3 3.2 3.4 Nepal 37.7 25.7 91 72 54.1b 58.3 58.8 76.0 40.4 Pakistan 31.0 20.0 109 85 – 59.9 60.2 72.1 42.5 Sri Lanka 6.6 15.2 19 17 17.0 75.3 69.5 11.0 5.6 Regional average 40.7 26.1 98.1 72.4 45.5 63.0 62.2 57.3 33.9 a. Data refer to the most recent year available b. Data differ from the standard definition Source: See Part C. Pakistan estimate of rural chronic pov- particularly vulnerable to chronic pov- cases this can result in people becoming erty, based on mean income over five erty in the region. Many chronically more vulnerable to exploitative employ- years, is 26% – this represents about poor live in persistently poor Indian ment (see Box 7.1). Much migration for 50% of households classified as poor in states and/or less favoured or remote work undertaken by the poor in South the first year of the survey, and about areas. Asia is this rural-rural, temporary and 6% of households classified as non-poor seasonal movement,11 although mi- in the first year. Table 7.2 presents a grants are also often among the urban summary of these different approaches The working poor chronically poor. This is not to say, and estimates, and includes another sur- Contrary to the common perception that however, that all migrants are chronic- vey that is more recent, but also contains the chronically poor are ‘unproductive’ – ally poor. For some, migration has fewer households, fewer waves and is unable or unwilling to work – the work- proved to be an effective means of escap- confined to a single province. ing poor actually constitute a significant ing poverty. There are no panel data from which to proportion of the chronically poor. The determine the numbers of chronically largest group of chronically poor people poor in Sri Lanka. It is clear, however, in rural India are casual agricultural la- Excluded minorities that although per capita GDP passed the bourers; cultivators, the second largest Excluded minorities, including ‘tribals’, US$800 hurdle in 1999, poverty persists. group. Most of the chronically poor are people of ‘low’ caste and religious mi- The proportion of the population living either landless or near-landless, and norities, find it more difficult to marshal on less than US$1/day, and the nutrition- highly dependent on wages.10 the necessary social, political and eco- ally ‘ultra poor’,9 both seem stable at Agricultural wages have been rising nomic resources to progress, and are just above 5% of the population. slowly in much of the sub-continent, and much more likely to experience long- The extent to which the 40% of Sri this is probably the best single explana- term and absolute poverty. As touched Lankans who survive on between US$1 tion for the slow but steady reduction in upon in Chapter Two, both Scheduled and US$2/day are likely to be chronically the depth of consumption poverty. How- Castes (SCs) and Scheduled Tribes (STs) poor is an empirical question, and fur- ever, getting work does not always trans- are stigmatised groups, within which ther research is needed to understand the late into exiting poverty. In agrarian many suffer extreme discrimination poverty dynamics of the ultra poor, poor economies with large casual labour mar- although the harsh oppression associated and non-poor in Sri Lanka. kets, the number of days of work ob- with untouchability has been banned.12 tained in a given period, is almost as In rural India, for example, a SC or ST important as the wage level. household was more likely to be poor in Who are the chronically Migration is often part of a broader both 1970–71 and 1981–82 than other poor in South Asia? set of livelihood strategies employed by caste households. Scheduled Caste The chronic poor in South Asia are dis- poor wage labourers. Chasing scarce, women have one of the lowest levels of proportionately made up of excluded mi- short-term, insecure, and low-paid wage literacy of all groups in India – in the norities, including tribal peoples; people labour from area to area, migrant la- 1991 Census more than 80% rural SC belonging to perceived low status castes; bourers often find themselves in a con- women were found to be illiterate. STs and casual and migrant labourers.