Langusova ulica 4, 1535 Ljubljana T: 01 478 82 82 F: 01 478 81 39 E: [email protected] PROPOSAL TRANSPORT DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY IN THE REPUBLIC OF SLOVENIA Version 9.6 15 October 2014 TRANSPORT DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY IN THE REPUBLIC OF SLOVENIA TABLE OF CONTENT PURPOSE ............................................................................................................................................ 1 LEGAL BASES ................................................................................................................................... 1 PREAMBLE ........................................................................................................................................ 1 1. STRATEGY STARTING POINTS ............................................................................................ 2 1.1. INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................. 2 1.2. SLOVENIA'S GEOGRAPHICAL POSITION AND SOME KEY CHALLENGES ............ 3 1.3. TRANSPORT IN STRATEGIC DOCUMENTATION ......................................................... 6 1.3.1. Transport in the light of the Resolution on the Transport Policy of the Republic of Slovenia (Official Gazette of the RS, no. 35/02 and 60/04). .......................................................... 6 1.3.2. Spatial Development Strategy of Slovenia (Official Gazette of RS, no. 76/04) ............. 10 1.4. SITUATION ANALYSIS FROM THE ASPECT OF SPATIAL DEVELOPMENT .......... 11 1.4.1. Transport development for improved connections among settlement areas and regions 13 1.4.2. Accessibility and interconnection of transport systems ................................................. 15 1.4.3. Accessibility inside Slovenia .......................................................................................... 17 1.5. SITUATION ANALYSIS OF SOME PARTIAL NATIONAL PROGRAMMES .............. 21 1.5.1. State of public railway infrastructure considering the National Programme of the Slovenian Railway Infrastructure Development .......................................................................... 21 1.5.2. National programmes for roads .................................................................................... 23 1.5.3. National Maritime Development Programme of the Republic of Slovenia ................... 24 1.5.4. Resolution on the Development of the National Civil Aviation of the Republic of Slovenia by 2020 .......................................................................................................................... 25 1.5.5. Situation analysis in Slovenian air transport and forecasts .......................................... 26 1.5.6. ReNCADP measures that relate to public transport infrastructure .............................. 26 1.6. ANALYSIS OF PAST DEVELOPMENT AND CURRENT SITUATION ........................ 27 1.6.1. Modal split in the Republic of Slovenia ......................................................................... 27 1.6.2. Current development of passenger and freight transport .............................................. 28 1.6.3. Transport flows in 2011 ................................................................................................. 34 1.7. THE EU WHITE PAPER ON TRANSPORT ...................................................................... 39 1.8. THE FUTURE EU LEGISLATIVE FRAMEWORK FOR THE TRANS-EUROPEAN TRANSPORT NETWORK ............................................................................................................. 41 1.8.1. Criteria and deadlines for implementing the future TEN-T network ............................. 41 1.8.2. Comparison of TEN-T criteria for the core network and the actual situation of infrastructure in the Republic of Slovenia .................................................................................... 46 1.8.3. Implementation of the TEN-T network from 2014 to 2020 ............................................ 47 1.9. ANALYSIS OF COMPETITIVENESS OF TRANSPORT CORRIDORS ......................... 48 1.10. INFRASTRUCTURE FOR THE USE OF ALTERNATIVE FUELS IN TRANSPORT 52 2. MINISTRY RESPONSIBLE FOR TRANSPORT ................................................................. 53 2.1. ORGANISATION OF THE MINISTRY OF INFRASTRUCTURE (MZI) ........................ 53 2.2. ANALYSIS OF THE ADMINISTRATIVE QUALIFICATIONS OF THE MINISTRY OF INFRASTRUCTURE FOR IMPLEMENTING ITS MEASURES IN THE 2014–2020 FINANCIAL PERSPECTIVE ......................................................................................................... 56 2.2.1. The field of railway infrastructure ................................................................................. 57 2.2.2. The field of sustainable mobility .................................................................................... 59 2.2.3. Road infrastructure ........................................................................................................ 60 2.2.4. Maritime infrastructure ................................................................................................. 61 2.2.5. Horizontal tasks of 2014–2020 Cohesion Policy ........................................................... 62 3. TRANSPORT MODEL ............................................................................................................. 65 a TRANSPORT DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY IN THE REPUBLIC OF SLOVENIA 3.1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................ 65 3.2. DATA FOR THE DEVELOPMENT AND VALIDATION OF THE TRANSPORT MODEL ........................................................................................................................................... 65 3.2.1. Introduction ................................................................................................................... 65 3.2.2. Data for model development .......................................................................................... 66 3.2.3. Data for the calibration and validation of the model .................................................... 68 3.3. DESIGN OF THE ENTIRE MODEL ................................................................................... 69 3.3.1. Basic characteristics ...................................................................................................... 69 3.3.2. Structure of the model .................................................................................................... 71 3.3.3. Modelling area .............................................................................................................. 72 3.4. DEMAND FOR INTERNAL PASSENGER TRANSPORT ............................................... 73 3.4.1. Slovenia ......................................................................................................................... 73 3.4.2. Remaining Central European area ................................................................................ 77 3.5. DEMAND FOR INTERNAL FREIGHT TRANSPORT ..................................................... 78 3.6. DEMAND FOR EXTERNAL TRANSPORT ...................................................................... 82 3.7. ASSIGNMENT ..................................................................................................................... 82 3.8. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS AND TRAFFIC SAFETY .............................................. 83 3.9. BASES FOR TRANSPORTATION FORECASTING ........................................................ 84 3.9.1. Introduction ................................................................................................................... 84 3.9.2. Development of socio-economic conditions in Central Europe .................................... 84 3.9.3. Forecast of socio-economic conditions in Slovenia ...................................................... 88 3.9.4. GDP forecast ................................................................................................................ 93 3.9.5. Productivity forecast ...................................................................................................... 95 3.9.6. Employment forecast ..................................................................................................... 96 3.9.7. Transport forecasting for the ports of Koper, Trieste and Rijeka, and Ljubljana Jože Pučnik Airport .............................................................................................................................. 98 3.9.8. Bases of transport supply forecast ............................................................................... 101 3.10. ANALYSIS OF THE DO-NOTHING ALTERNATIVE – ESTABLISHING PROBLEMS AND PROPOSING MEASURES ........................................................................... 104 3.10.1. Introduction .............................................................................................................. 104 3.10.2. Modal split ............................................................................................................... 105 3.10.3. Transport efficiency ................................................................................................. 109 3.10.4. Environmental acceptability .................................................................................... 143 3.10.5. Social acceptability .................................................................................................. 150 3.10.6. Maintenance and other