Statistical Analysis of the Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Acid Deposition in the West Midlands, England, United Kingdom A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE FACULTY OF THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF THE UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA BY Avery Rose Cota-Guertin IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE Dr. Howard Mooers January 2012 © Avery Rose Cota-Guertin 2012 Acknowledgements I would like to take this time to thank those people who played a crucial part in the completion of this thesis. I would like to thank my mother, Roxanne, and father, Jim. Without their unconditional love and support I would not be where I am today. I would also like to thank my husband, Greg, for his continued and everlasting support. With this I owe them all greatly for being my rock through this entire process. I would like to thank my thesis committee members for their guidance and support throughout this journey. First and foremost, I would like to thank my academic advisor, Dr. Howard Mooers, for the advisement and mentoring necessary for a successful completion. Secondly, I would like to extend great thanks to Dr. Ron Regal for patiently mentoring me through the rollercoaster ride of Statistical Analysis Software (SAS). Without his assistance in learning SAS techniques and procedures I would still be drowning in a sea of coding procedures. And thank you to Dr. Erik Brown for taking the time to serve on my thesis committee for the past two years. For taking the time out of his busy schedule to meet with Howard and me during our trip to England, I owe a great thanks to Dr. Robert Inkpen. It was during this meeting where we gained valuable insight into the potential avenues this project could focus. I would also like to thank Tony Sames for discussing the industrial and residential history of the West Midlands, England. His knowledge of the study area was incredibly valuable throughout this project. For assistance in the completion of the GIS component of this project, thank you Stacey Stark for your patience and willingness to meet with me. I also owe a great deal of thanks to my fellow grads, without them I would not have maintained sanity through this project. Last but certainly not least, I would like to thank Linnea i Henkels for accompanying me to England to assist in the collection of the 2010 dataset. She trekked across central England rain or shine to be my wing-woman. Funding for field work in support of this thesis was made possible by the William E. and Jean Crain Grant available through the American Association of Petroleum Geologists (AAPG) Grants-in-Aid program, the Block Grant and Walker Grant available through the University of Minnesota Duluth (UMD) Geological Sciences department, and the UMD Sigma Xi Chapter. ii Abstract The burning of high sulfur coal during the Industrial Revolution of England resulted in air quality deterioration. Anthropogenic emissions are linked to health problems and environmental degradation. The implementation of environmental emission control legislation of the 1970s resulted in a significant decrease in sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions. Acid deposition, as a result of industrialization, spatially and temporally varies throughout the West Midlands of England. This study seeks to quantify the effects of acid deposition as a result of the Industrial Revolution of the West Midlands using lead- lettered marble gravestone corrosion as a proxy for environmental degradation. Prior to the implementation of environmental legislation corrosion values were 0.78 mm/100yrs and following legislation values decreased to 0.54 mm/100yrs indicating the efficacy of environmental clean-up efforts. Within individual cemeteries considerable variability exists. Factors that may contribute to this variability include: tree cover, orientation of stones, algae/lichen cover, gravestone texture, and local elevation differences. Statistical analysis of cemetery variables indentified tree cover, gravestone texture, gravestone color (algae/lichen cover), and local elevations differences to be significant with p-values ≤ 0.5. Tree cover and gravestone texture were used to adjust corrosion measurements. Adjusted cemetery corrosion rates mapped in ArcGIS® suggest spatial and temporal variability across the study area. Areas associated with high industrial and/or residential activity correlate to high corrosion rates. iii Table of Contents Acknowledgements............................................................................................................. i Abstract..............................................................................................................................iii Table of Contents.............................................................................................................. iv List of Tables..................................................................................................................... vi List of Figures...................................................................................................................vii 1. Introduction.................................................................................................................... 1 2. Background.................................................................................................................... 5 2.1 Industrialization History of the West Midlands............................................ 5 2.2 Acid Precipitation Associated with Industrialization.................................. 12 2.3 Carbonate Corrosion Measurement Techniques......................................... 13 2.4 Assessment of Marble Monument Corrosion.............................................. 15 3. Methods........................................................................................................................19 3.1 Spatial Distribution of Cemetery Selection................................................. 19 3.2 Marble Gravestone Selection...................................................................... 19 3.3 Gravestone Corrosion Collection................................................................ 20 3.4 Assessment of Research Objectives............................................................ 23 3.4.1 Tree cover...................................................................................... 24 3.4.2 Gravestone aspect........................................................................... 25 3.4.3 Local elevation differences............................................................. 26 3.4.4 Gravestone color (algae/lichen)....................................................... 26 3.4.5 Gravestone texture……………....................................................... 27 3.5 Analysis of Corrosion Data......................................................................... 28 3.5.1 Statistical analysis.......................................................................... 28 3.5.2 GIS spatial and temporal analysis.................................................... 32 3.6 Calculating Atmospheric Concentrations for Acid Deposition................... 33 4. Results.......................................................................................................................... 34 4.1 Statistical Analysis of Variable Effects....................................................... 38 4.1.1 Tree cover......................................................................................38 iv 4.1.2 Elevation....................................................................................... 40 4.1.3 Gravestone color............................................................................ 42 4.1.4 Gravestone texture.......................................................................... 43 4.2 Dataset Adjustments…………….......…………......................................... 44 4.3 Spatial and Temporal Assessment of Corrosion..........................................57 5. Discussion.................................................................................................................... 64 5.1 Conversion of Acid Deposition to Acid Concentration...............................70 6. Conclusion....................................................................................................................74 References........................................................................................................................ 76 Appendix A.......................................................................................................................82 v List of Tables Table 1 Manufacturing specialties of the Black Country................................................... 9 Table 2 Lettering alteration index.................................................................................... 14 Table 3 2010 gravestone selection criteria....................................................................... 21 Table 4 2010 cemetery variable classification................................................................. 24 Table 5 Cemetery locations: name, neighborhood, district, and county.......................... 35 Table 6 Cemetery variable p-values................................................................................. 38 Table 7 Collected cemetery variable information............................................................ 47 Table 8 Cemetery break point analysis and associated cemetery corrosion rates............ 56 Table 9 Adjusted cemetery corrosion rates for ArcGIS ® analysis................................