Muhammadu Buhari or Goodluck Jonathan? Nigeria’s Fateful Choice | AfricaPlus AFRICAPLUS Muhammadu Buhari or Goodluck Jonathan? Nigeria’s Fateful Choice FEBRUARY 10, 2015 / AFRICAPLUS By Richard Joseph and William Miles One week before Nigerians expected to vote on retaining Goodluck Jonathan as president, or removing him for Muhammadu Buhari, the Electoral Commission was forced to postpone the election. Military and security officials insisted on having six more weeks to try and decimate an almost six-year insurgency. The gamble is clear: Jonathan’s chances, and that of his political associates, could depend on whether Nigerian armed forces, bolstered by neighboring troops, can make major gains in combating the jihadists. Follow https://africaplus.wordpress.com/2015/02/10/muhammadu-buhari-or-goodluck-jonathan-nigerias-fateful-choice/[7/19/2017 1:07:02 PM] Muhammadu Buhari or Goodluck Jonathan? Nigeria’s Fateful Choice | AfricaPlus In anticipation of the election, Richard Joseph was interviewed on February 5th by Alexandra Salomon of WBEZ/NPR in Chicago. She raised in her first question the prospect of a postponement of the elections. Goodluck Jonathan is now widely known, but Buhari is much less so. An edited transcript of the interview is provided here followed by a commentary from William Miles who reflects on his personal meeting with Buhari. Crushing Boko Haram has now been given precedence over defeating Buhari’s multi-party alliance. The military and political contests will intensify in the national cauldron known as Nigeria. Alexandra Salomon, WBEZ: The growing violence may prevent hundreds of thousands of Nigerians from voting in the upcoming elections. Boko Haram has attacked villages, churches, and mosques and burned people alive in its latest attack on the Cameroonian town of Fotokol. Nigeria is supposed to hold presidential elections on February 14, but the violence may keep many people from voting. At least a million people have been displaced by the violence. Some politicians say the elections should be postponed. Richard Joseph joins me to talk about what is at stake in Nigeria. The Nigerian government has taken a lot of criticism for not being able to contain the insurgency. Is Boko Haram gaining ground? RJ: Well, certainly if you look over the last five years, they have gained a lot of territory. I have suggested states like New Jersey to give Americans a sense of the area under its control. Despite frequent attacks, Boko Haram has not threatened the major northeastern city of Maiduguri. However, it has won control of a wide surrounding territory. What is noteworthy is the group’s resilience. So far it has proved to be more inventive and intrepid than the Nigerian military. https://africaplus.wordpress.com/2015/02/10/muhammadu-buhari-or-goodluck-jonathan-nigerias-fateful-choice/[7/19/2017 1:07:02 PM] Muhammadu Buhari or Goodluck Jonathan? Nigeria’s Fateful Choice | AfricaPlus Will Nigerians Bring Back Buhari? Photo Source: osundefender.org AS: Now we’ve seen that some of the neighboring countries—Chad, Cameroon, and Niger— along with the African Union, are putting together a multinational force. How important do you think this will be in combating the insurgency? RJ: It is extremely important and, in fact, imperative. For some time now, I and others have called attention to the fact that the Nigerian military did not appear up to the task and that external military assistance was required. However, in the Nigerian context, ths is a very difficult step. Nigeria is a very nationalist country, a very proud country. The argument that Nigeria needs the help of external forces to defeat the insurgency is not easy to advance. External military and intelligence agencies, such as those of the United States, have found it very difficult working with the Nigerian government and the Nigerian armed forces. Even routine training exercises, as take place in many other countries, have been stymied by logistical and other problems. AS: All of this is casting a shadow, if you will, over the elections. Boko Haram is effectively in control of a huge section of the country where many people may not be able to cast their ballots. What does it mean for the upcoming elections that you have a chunk of the country under the control of an insurgency and displaced people who probably won’t be able to vote? https://africaplus.wordpress.com/2015/02/10/muhammadu-buhari-or-goodluck-jonathan-nigerias-fateful-choice/[7/19/2017 1:07:02 PM] Muhammadu Buhari or Goodluck Jonathan? Nigeria’s Fateful Choice | AfricaPlus RJ: The Nigerian Constitution and the Electoral Act allow for successive rounds of voting in the country’s 36 states. In the first round, a winning candidate must get a plurality of the popular vote and a quarter of the ballots cast in two-thirds of the states. This means that even if the elections cannot take place in the area in which Boko Haram is dominant, a presidential election can still be won without those votes. It would be better, of course, for the greatest number of Nigerian voters to cast their ballots freely. There is a broader issue. The first question is will Boko Haram conduct attacks outside its core zone. It is known that it has cells in other parts of the north, and even in other parts of the country. To what extent will Boko Haram activate them to try and disrupt the elections? Secondly, Nigerian elections are never smoothly run affairs. There is a high level of dysfunction given the complexity of running an election in a country of its size and with deficient infrastructures. There is therefore going to be disruption. There will be violence. There will occur vigorous protests over alleged rigging, problems with the voter lists, and so on. Disruption and violent events, to an even greater degree than occurred during the insurgency in the Delta, will take place alongside atrocities committed by this cultist and pathological group. There is a third factor about which little specific is known but which cannot be discounted. This concerns deliberate efforts by politically-motivated persons, as we have seen in Kenya, to engineer disruptions to serve themselves and their political parties. Such activities have, sadly, become a staple of Nigerian electoral contests, with gangs of young men doing the bidding of their patrons. AS: Are people going to be afraid, then, to come out and vote because of the risk of violence? RJ: I don’t think so. Obviously, in the area of the insurgency, that will be a factor. But most of Nigeria is reasonably calm. There is the usual degree of civic violence and crime, but many Nigerians will still come out and vote. A question has been raised about the distribution of voting cards. Every so often, Nigeria tries to introduce a more sophisticated system to reduce fraud. But then the Electoral Commission runs into trouble administering it. That is another cloud hanging over these elections. So there might be problems regarding the logistics and mechanisms of the electoral process. But that is nothing unusual. Blatant rigging and fraudulent conduct, however, have been reduced during the leadership of the Commission by Professor Attahiru Jega. The police and army have provided increased security during recent state elections, but that has been criticized as being aimed at dampening opposition voting. https://africaplus.wordpress.com/2015/02/10/muhammadu-buhari-or-goodluck-jonathan-nigerias-fateful-choice/[7/19/2017 1:07:02 PM] Muhammadu Buhari or Goodluck Jonathan? Nigeria’s Fateful Choice | AfricaPlus AS: Let’s talk about the two candidates who are really the main focus here. There are several candidates in the field, but really two main ones. There is the current president, Goodluck Jonathan, and the main opposition candidate, Muhammadu Buhari. Buhari has an interesting background. He came to power in a coup. Remind us about who he is and his place in Nigerian political history. RJ: Buhari is a retired military officer who has had a distinguished career. He first came to national awareness following a military coup in 1975, when he was appointed to serve as a military governor in the northeast region (now the site of the insurgency). In the federal cabinet, led by General Olusegun Obasanjo, he oversaw the petroleum ministry and became a member of the Supreme Military Council. A civilian government to which the Obasanjo government handed power in 1979 was overthrown in a coup led by Buhari in December 1983. There then ensued a period of draconian rule. Numerous arrests were made for dissidence or corruption and gross abuses of human rights occurred. After 20 months, a palace coup led by Ibrahim Babangida, a member of the junta, removed Buhari and his deputy Tunde Idiagbon. He was then imprisoned for three years. Buhari returned to prominence as Chairman of the Petroleum Trust Fund in the 1990s intended to finance development projects. His resurrection as a political leader continued and he ran unsuccessfully for the presidency in 2003, 2007, and 2011. Gradually, he became the most prominent political figure in northern Nigeria and is now the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC). Outside his northern political base, the strongest component of this four-party alliance is the Action Congress, dominant in the southwest. His running mate from that sub-region, Yemi Osinbajo, is a distinguished lawyer, academic, former state attorney general, and church pastor. AS: So here’s a person who was not known for his respect for civil rights during his time in office, but the polls show that the race is tight between him and Goodluck Jonathan. Why do you think Nigerians may be looking to him now? RJ: Many Nigerians have been critical of Buhari’s actions during his stint as military head of state, for the reasons you mentioned.