Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive Theses and Dissertations Thesis Collection 1998-09 The naval officer of 2020 Packer, Daniel L. Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School http://hdl.handle.net/10945/32766 NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA • iI It THESIS THE NAVAL OFFICER OF 2020 by Daniel L. Packer, Jr. September 1998 Thesis Co-Advisors: George Thomas Julie Filizetti Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved 01.13OMB No. 0704-0188 - Public reporting burden for this ooUection of information is estimated to average 1I hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the ooUection of information. Send commenls regprding this burden estimale or any other aspect ofthis ooUection of information, including suggestions forreducing this burden, to washingtonWashington Headquarters Services, Directora!eforDirectoralefor Information Operations and Reports, 1215 JeffersonDavis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office ofManagement and Budget, PaperwOIkReduction Project (0704-0188) Washington IX: 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED September 1998 Master's Thesis 4. TIILE AND SUBTIILE THE NAVAL OFFICER OF 2020 5.S. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AurnOR(S)AUlliOR(S) DanielL. Packer, Jr. 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING Naval Postgraduate School ORGANIZATION Monterey, CA 93943-5000 REPORT NUMBER 9. SPONSORINGIMONITORING AGENCYNAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSORINGIMONITORING AGENCY REPORT NUMBER 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. 12a DIS1RIBUTIONIADISlRIBUIlONIAV AILABILITY STATEMENT 12b. DISlRIBUIlONCODEDIS1RIBUTIONCODE Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. 13. ABS1RACT (maximum 200 words) The naval officer of2020 must be different than the naval officer of today. The environment has changed and the military and the naval service must change with it. For the naval service to be effective and relevant in the dynamic and uncertain environment of the future, the Navy must be fast, responsive to change as measured in seconds and minutes rather than the hours and days of the past. This necessitates that the combat forces, at least, within the Navy be organized in a very flat hierarchy. There will be little or no time for information to flow up and down the chain of command. Decisions are going to have to be made at the lowest level possible. Consequently, the Navy will require officers capable of making decisions and officers capable of leading decision makers. The intent of this thesis is to frame a dialogue about the future naval officer by creating a vision of the naval officer of 2020 and presenting recommendations for the development and management of these officers. 15.IS. NUMBER OF 14. SUBJECT TERMS Manpower, Personnel, and Training, Naval Officer, Officer Personnel Management, Revolution in Military Affairs, Network Centric Warfare, Professional Military Education PAGES 241 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY CLASsmCA- 18. SECURITY CLASsm- 19. SECURITY CLASsmCA- 20. LIMITATION OF TION OF REPORT CATION OF TIllS PAGE TION OF ABS1RACT ABS1RACT Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified UL NSN 754CUlI-280-SS00754CUlI-280-5500 Standard Fonn 298 (Rev. 2-89) Prescribed by ANSI Std. 239-18 298-102 ii Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. THE NA VAL OFFICER OF 2020 Daniel L. Packer Jr. Lieutenant, United States Navy B.S., United States Naval Academy, 1992 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASlER OF SCIENCE IN MANAGEMENT from the NAVALPOSTGRADUAlESCHOOL September 1998 . Author: Approved by: RCULUCllReub~ T. Harris, Chainnan Department of Systems Management iii IV ABSTRACT The naval officer of 2020 must be different than the naval officer of today. The environment has changed and the military and the naval service must change with it. For the naval service to be effective and relevant in the dynamic and uncertain environment of the future, the Navy must be fast, responsive to change as measured in seconds and minutes rather than the hours and days of the past. This necessitates that the combat forces, at least, within the Navy be organized in a very flat hierarchy. There will be little or no time for information to flow up and down the chain of command. Decisions are going to have to be made at the lowest level possible. Consequently, the Navy will require officers capable of making decisions and officers capable of leading decision makers. The intent of this thesis is to frame a dialogue about the future naval officer by creating a vision of the naval officer of 2020 and presenting recommendations for the development and management ofthese officers. v VI TABLE OF CONTENTS I. IN1RODUCTION ................................................................................................................... 1 A. OVERVffiW ............................................................................................................. 1 B. BACKGROUND ....................................................................................................... 1 C. SCOPEIMETHODOLOGY ...................................................................................... 6 D. BENEFIT OF STUDY/ORGANIZATION OF THE THESIS ................................. 7 ll. CONCEPTUAL MODELS .................................................................................................... 9 A. OVERVffiW ............................................................................................................. 9 B. TlIE SYSTEMS MODEL ........................................................................................ 9 1. Environment/Context .................................................................................... 9 2. Key Success Factors ...................................................................................... 11 3. System Direction/Strategy Formulation ........................................................ 11 4. Design Factors ............................................................................................... 11 5. Culture/Outputs/Outcomes ........................................................................... 12 C. MINTZBERG'S ORGANIZATIONAL MODEL .................................................... 12 D. ROBERT'S ORGANIZATIONAL CONFIGURATION MODEL. ......................... 15 1. PoliticallReactive Configuration .................................................................... 16 2. Directive Configuration ................................................................................. 17 3. Adaptive Configuration ................................................................................. 17 4. Generative Configuration .............................................................................. 18 E. NADLER AND TUSHMANS CONGRUENCE HYPOTHESIS ........................... 18 F. NAVY HUMAN RESOURCE MANAGEMENT MODEL. .................................. .21 vii III. THE NAVY OF TODAY ..................................................................................................23 A. OVERVIEW......................................................................................................... 23 B. THE TASKS ......................................................................................................... 24 1. The National Military Strategy ... : ..........................................................24 2. The Nation's Naval Strategy ..................................................................... 26 C. TECHNOLOGy................................................................................................... 30 1. Doctrine .................................................................................................... 30 2. The Navy's Technological Tools .............................................................. 35 D. STRUCTURE ........................................................................................................ 35 1. The Navys as a Machine Bureaucracy with Overlapping Hierarchical Structures.................................................................................................. 36 2. The Strategic Apex .................................................................................... 39 3. The Middle Line ....................................................................................... .39 4. The Operating Core ................................................................................... 41 5. The Technostructure ................................................................................. 46 6. The Support Staff...................................................................................... 47 IV. THE NAVAL OFFICER OF TODAY ............................................................................ .:49 A. OVERVIEW B. RANK AND DEMOGRAPHICS: WHO ARE NAVAL OFFICERS .................. 49 1. Rank.......................................................................................................... :49 2. Composition by Sex and RaciallEthnic Group.......................................... 50 C. OCCUPATIONAL DIFFERENTIATION: SPECIALISTS VERSUS GENERALISTS ..................................................................................................