http://www.paper.edu.cn 65 POLICY FORUM: ECOLOGY this covers 770,000 hectares of land. The 64 Grain-to-Green policy calls for local com- 63 munities to receive grain subsidies and 62 seedlings for planting plantation and natural 61 Giant Pandas in a forests. Farmers will also receive a cash sub- 60 sidy proportional to the amount of land con- 59 verted (13). Unfortunately, panda habitat 58 Changing Landscape conservation remains poorly integrated into 57 Colby J. Loucks,1† Zhi Lü,2,3* Eric Dinerstein,1 Hao Wang,3 these policies. However, a third national sur- 56 David M. Olson,1 Chunquan Zhu,2 Dajun Wang3 vey, slated for publication in 2002, may help 55 by providing information on the 54 he giant panda (Ailuropoda panda’s distribution, habitat, and Qinling Xian 53 melanoleuca) should be a Gansu Mountains potential dispersal patterns. 52 Tconservation success story as 500 50100 150 Although panda conserva- 51 the world’s most widely recognized Kilometers tion activities in China are re- 50 conservation icon, with a protected ceiving unprecedented support, 49 area network of 33 nature reserves, Min Mountain development goals can be in- 48 and an improved captive breeding compatible with conservation. Qionglai 47 program. Yet, habitat loss and frag- Mountains China recently initiated the Chengdu 46 mentation continue to threaten its China Western China Development 45 future. China’s estimated 1100 Xiangling Sichuan Distribution Program, which calls for sub- 44 wild giant pandas survive in only a Mountains in 1800 stantial infrastructure develop- 43 fraction of their historic range (see ment, hydropower generation, Liang 42 the figure) (1, 2). Human land use Mountains Historic ecotourism development, and 41 has restricted the species to ap- range economic incentives to encour- 40 proximately 24 montane forest age domestic and international 39 populations at the edge of the Ti- Historic distribution of giant pandas (inset map) and present-day investment. This initiative will 38 betan Plateau (3). The pandas’ fu- distribution (red). [Adapted from (16)] draw additional Chinese citi- 37 ture in China's forests depends on zens into the region, and tax an 36 increased protection and restoration of cor- wu County in the Min Mountains, for exam- already burdened land. Integrating conser- 35 ridors among remaining forest fragments ple, has the highest density of pandas. Yet of vation needs into development policies will 34 and increased habitat protection. The Chi- the 2700 km2 of habitat, less than 20% is be an important challenge. The NFCP and 33 nese government has recently instituted protected in three unconnected reserves. A the Grain-to-Green policy provide a historic 32 policies that could have profound positive or landscape-scale analysis of pandas in the opportunity to move panda conservation 31 negative effects on the forests that pandas Qinling Mountains found that increased from individual reserves to habitat conser- 30 need to survive. protection and linkage of fragmented mid- vation across landscapes. 29 In the Wolong Nature Reserve, the three elevation habitat, much of it outside of exist- 28 subpopulations of 30 to 45 pandas have more ing reserves, is necessary to meet habitat re- References and Notes 27 1. Z. Lü et al., in Priorities for the Conservation of Mam- than a 10-fold chance of extinction by 2100 if quirements of panda populations (10). Giv- malian Diversity,A.Entwistle, N. Dunstone, Eds. 26 they remain isolated from each other (4). en proper habitat protection, wild panda (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 25 Most of China’s 24 fragmented panda popu- populations will rebound and grow (11, 12). 2000), pp. 325–334. 2. R. Channell, M.V. Lomolino, Nature 403, 84 (2000). 24 lations have fewer than 50 individuals, too The Chinese government has recently in- 3. S. J. O’Brien,W. Pan, Z. Lü, Nature 369, 179 (1994). 23 few to be viable over the long term (3). Thus, creased its commitment to environmental 4. X. Yan et al. “Giant Panda Conservation Assessment 22 if habitat loss and fragmentation confine pan- protection. In the wake of 1998’s extensive and Research Techniques Workshop Final Report” [World Conservation Union (IUCN), Species Survival 21 das to existing nature reserves, many popula- flooding, China began implementing the Commission, Conservation Breeding Specialist Group, 20 tions will face extinction through inbreeding Natural Forest Conservation Program Apple Valley, MN, 2000]. 19 depression and demographic inviability. (NFCP). This initiative aims to increase for- 5. China’s Ministry of Forestry and WWF, National Con- servation Management Plan for the Giant Panda and 18 More than 50% of the remaining panda est cover in the upper Yangtze, Yellow, and Its Habitat (Ministry of Forestry and World Wildlife 17 habitat is protected. A large proportion was Songhuajiang river basins to prevent a repeat Fund, Beijing, China, 1989). 16 gazetted during the implementation of the 6. J. Liu et al., Science 292, 98 (2001). of the 1998 floods that affected approximate- 7. T. Brooks et al., Science 293, 603 (2001). 15 (1989) panda management plan (5). Al- ly 21 million hectares (13). This policy bans 8. K. Baragona Science 293, 603 (2001). 14 though a recent analysis of Wolong Nature logging in natural forests, strengthens pro- 9. J. Liu et al., Science 293, 603 (2001). 10. C. J. Loucks et al., in preparation. 13 Reserve (6) suggested that China’s protected tection of existing forests, implements af- 11. W. Pan, Z. S. Gao, Z. Lü, The Giant Panda’s Natural 12 areas are failing to conserve panda habitat, forestation, and resettles unemployed Refuge in the Qinling Mountains (Peking University 11 Wolong is atypical (7–9). The more urgent forestry workers (14). It will be implemented Press, Beijing, China, 1988). 12. W. Pan et al., The Opportunity for the Giant Panda to 10 issue is conservation of remaining habitat over 11 years and will provide strict protec- Exist (Peking Univ. Press, Beijing, China, 2001). 9 outside of the existing reserve system. Ping- tion to all the remaining forests throughout 13. C. Zhu et al., A Case Study on China’s Policy of Con- 8 the panda’s range. A drawback of the logging verting Steep Cultivated Land to Forest or Grassland (China’s Forestry Press, Beijing, China, in press). 7 ban is China’s increased demand for forest 1World Wildlife Fund–United States, Washington, DC 14. P. Zhang, et al., Science 288, 2135 (2000). 6 20037, USA. 2World Wide Fund for Nature, China, Bei- products from other countries (15). 15. WWF-Traffic, “Report on the economic, social, and 5 3 environmental impacts of China’s demand for wood: jing, 100020, China. Giant Panda Conservation and Re- The NFCP is complemented by the Recent domestic forest policy reforms and associat- 4 search Center, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China. Grain-to-Green policy, which aims to re- ed effects of trade liberalization” (World Wildlife 3 store hillside agricultural lands into forest or Fund-Traffic, Beijing, China, 2001). *Present address: Yale School of Forestry and Envi- 16. C. Servheen, S. Herrero, B. Peyton, Bears: Status Sur- 2 ronmental Studies, New Haven, CT 06511, USA. E- grasslands over the next 5 to 8 years (13). In vey and Conservation Action Plan (IUCN, Gland, 1 mail: [email protected] Sichuan, where a majority of pandas live, Switzerland and Cambridge, UK, 1999). www.sciencemag.org SCIENCE VOL 294 16 NOVEMBER 2001 1465 转载.