Impact of Climate Change on M alaysia Ir. Hj. Ahmad Jamalluddin b. Shaaban Director General National Hydraulic Research Institute of Malaysia Ministry of Natural Resources & Environment 22 OCT 2013 Outline •Climate Change in Malaysia •Impacts • Water Quantity and Quality • Sea Level Rise •Adaptation •Way Forward Climate Change in Malaysia CLIMATE CHANGE IN MALAYSIA Extreme rainfall events Top Natural Disasters in Malaysia for the period 1900 to 2012 Source: www.emdat.be/result-country-profile 4 Observed Climatic Change . Temperature: . Increase in mean surface temperature: 0.6°C to 1.2°C , 1969- 2009 (MMD) . Rainfall . Increased rainfall intensity -> 1-hour rainfall intensity (2000- 2007) increase by 17% compared to 1970s values (NAHRIM) . “Above average” rainfall . In 2007: Massive floods in Batu Pahat, Johor Baru, Kluang, Kota Tinggi, Mersing, Muar, and Segamat ->Typhoon Utor . Flood losses ~ RM 1.5 billion . Sea Level Rise . 4.6 cm to 11.9 cm, satellite altimetry data (1993-2010) 5 Climate Change related Research in Malaysia Study of the Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrologic Regime and Water Resources of Peninsular Malaysia (2006) Study of the Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrologic Regime and Water Resources of Sabah and Sarawak (2010) The Study of The Impact Of Climate Change on Sea Level Rise in Malaysia (2010) 6 Research on the Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrologic Regime & Water Resources of Peninsular Malaysia . 2006: A regional hydrologic- atmospheric model of Peninsular Malaysia called as ‘Regional Hydro-climate Model of Peninsular Malaysia (RegHCM-PM) was developed . Downscaling global climate change simulation data (Canadian The grid layout for the outer domain GCM1 current and future climate (1st Domain, 26x28 grids, 81 km data) that are at very coarse resolution) of the RegHCM-PM resolution (~ 410km), to Peninsular Malaysia (West Malaysia) at fine spatial resolution (~9km) – for future period of 2025 to 2050 (2025- 2034 & 2041-2050) 27km x 27km 9km x 9km 7 NAHRIM Regional Scale Model Configuration CGCM1 MESOSCALE MODEL (MM5) Global Scale Topography MM5 Atmospheric Boundary & & Conditions Model Landcover Ocean Outer (USGS) Data Initial Domain Soil (FAO) CGCM, NCEP Fields Boundary Conditions MM5 Initial Model Fields 2nd Model Domain Nesting Boundary Conditions MM5 Initial Model Fields Inner Regional HCM-PM/SS Domain Topography, Watershed Scale IRSHAM Landcover Hydro-climate Model & Output Domain Soil (NAHRIM) 8 NAHRIM’s RegHCM-PM Simulated Future Temperature Average Annual TEMP Max: +1.4oC KLANG (5.3%) Min: +1.21oC N/EAST COAST (4.6%) 9 NAHRIM’s RegHCM-PM Simulated Future Annual Rainfall Average Annual RAIN Max: +264mm N/EAST COAST (8.5%) Min: -110mm SELANGOR (-4.9%) 10 1-day maximum precipitation map SG. KELANTAN SG. DUNGUN - KEMAMAN 1-day Maximum Precipitation (mm) SG. JOHOR- MERSING 11 NAHRIM’s RegHCM-PM Simulated Future River Flow Mean Monthly Flow Max: +12% [KEL] Min: - 8% KLANG 12 Research on the Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrologic Regime & Water Resources of Sabah and Sarawak . 2010: A regional hydrologic- atmospheric model of east Malaysia called as ‘Regional Hydro-climate Model of Sabah and Sarawak (RegHCM-SS) was developed The grid layout for the outer domain (1st Domain, 26x28 grids, 81 km resolution) of the . Downscaling global climate RegHCM-SS change simulation data (ECHAM5 GCM and MRI GCM2.3.2 at control run simulation and future climate simulation data) that are at very coarse resolution (~ 208/310km), to Sabah & Sarawak (East Malaysia) at fine spatial resolution (~9km) – for future period of 2010 to 2100 27km x 27km 9km x 9km 13 NAHRIM’s RegHCM-SS Projected Temperature SABAH 2040 - 2050 2090 -2100 Min. 1 .36 o C 2 .31 o C SARAWAK Mean 1 .51 o C 3 .27 o C o o 2040- 2050 2090- 2100 Max. 2 .22 C 4 . 01 C Min. 1. 08 o c 2 . 03 o C Mean 1. 23 o C 3 . 10 o C Max. 1. 61 o C 3 . 24 o C 14 NAHRIM’s RegHCM-SS Projected Rainfall SCS Coast: Highest projected monthly Max. rainfall Tuaran: Substantial increases of 46.4% (2040- increase of monthly Min. 2050) to 58.1% (2090-2100) & Mean Rainfall in 2090-2100 (19.7%) Limbang: Highest projected Monthly Max. rainfall increases of 51.77% (2040-2050) to 99% (2090-2100) 15 1-day maximum precipitation map TUARAN SCS COAST SOUTHERN SARAWAK 16 NAHRIM’s RegHCM-SS KEDAMAIAN ( WATER SUPPLY & FLOODS ) 2040 - 2050 2090 - 2100 Projected Flow 3 Low Flow (m /s ) 1 .75 /( 3 .40 ) 3 .18 /( 3 .40 ) 3 High Flow (m /s ) 218 .9 /( 100. 8 ) 148 . 4 /(100 . 80 ) WATER SUPPLY PROBLEM SARAWAK R . ( FLOODS ) FLOODS 2040 -2050 2090 - 2100 3 Low Flow (m /s ) 2 .91 /( 4 .05 ) 6 .16 /( 4 . 05) 3 High Flow (m /s ) 89. 42 /( 98. 42 ) 133 . 91 /( 98 . 42 ) 17 PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGE IN MALAYSIA Peninsular Climate Malaysia Sabah Sarawak Parameter [RegHCM-PM] [RegHCM-SS] [RegHCM-SS] [2050] [2050] Annual mean 1.3-1.7oC 1.0-1.5oC 1.0-1.5oC [2050] surface temp. [2100] [2100] 2.9–3.5oC 3.0-3.3oC Max. Monthly [2050] [2050] [2050] +59mm (5.1%) +150mm (8%) Rainfall +113mm(12%) [2100] [2100] +111mm (9%) +282mm (32% ) 18 SEA LEVEL RISE (SLR) STUDY FOR MALAYSIA NAHRIM’s study (2010) : “The Study of the Impact of Climate Change on Sea Level Rise on Malaysia Coastlines” Projections of SLR for 21st century (2010 to 2100) Data: tide gauge data (25 years); satellite altimetry data (17 years); and GCM Projections. Linear Trend Analysis. Assimilation of mean projection of SLR with: 49 simulations of 7 AOGCM models at satellite altimetry locations along Malaysian coastlines 19 NAHRIM SLR Study (2010) SLR Projection for 2100 Satellite altimetry locations 0.373 – Projections of SLR at 2100 (in meter) National Hydraulics Research Institute Of Malaysia (NAHRIM) NAHRIM SLR Study (2010) Observed SLR Rates (mm/year) Malaysia Global Tide gauge 0.2 – 4.4 (1984-2010) 1.2 – 2.2 * Satellite Altimetry 2.73 – 7.0 (1993-2010) 3.2** •IPCC (AR4, 2007) **IPCC (AR5, 2013) Projection on Sea Level Rise at 2100 for Malaysia Sea Level Rise Note Projection 2100 0.25m – 0.52m Maximum SLR – Northeast and West coast of Peninsular Malaysia (Peninsular (2.5– 5.2 mm/yr) (Kelantan & Kedah) Malaysia) Projection 2100 0.43m – 1.06m 1. Maximum SLR– North & East coast of Sabah. (Sabah & (4.3 – 10.6 mm/yr) Sarawak) 2. Inundation at low lying area and rivermouth/estuaries in Southwest coast of Sarawak (Meradong, located between Batang Igan & Batang Rajang). 3. Inundation at low lying area and rivermouth/estuaries in East coast of Sabah (Tawau, Semporna, Lahad Datu, Sandakan & Kudat). National Hydraulics Research Institute Of Malaysia (NAHRIM) Climate Change Impacts on • Water Quantity • Water Quality 22 A. Change in Water Quantity/Discharge Water excess (extreme rainfall, flows) • Increase in severity of floods • Increase in soil erosion -> scouring of drainage structures and sedimentation in rivers Water shortage (drought) • Reduced inflows to reservoirs • Reduced stream-flows -> affect raw water abstraction • Reduced recharge of groundwater 23 Water excesses Flooding in Kajang (2 Dec 2011) Source: San, LY 2011 Condition before and after floods on Kota Tinggi Bridge in Flooding condition in Johor River during January 2007 January 2007 24 Water shortages 17 Oct 2012 8 Oct 2012 Photo: SAMB Selangor Times 12 Oct 2012 25 B. Change in Water Quality 12 Oct 2012 Water excess (extreme rainfall, flows) • Increase in pollution: litters, nutrients and sediments 12 Oct 2012 Water shortage (drought) • Concentrated pollutant level in streams 26 Impacts of Water Shortage on Water Quality river flow and groundwater recharge will decrease, water quality decrease due to less dilution of pollutants, Higher concentration of pollutants in the water bodies Impacts of Excessive Flowing Water on Water Quality 1. Increased water colour due to increased input of humic substances as dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from the catchment. 2. Increased nutrients. Increased mineralisation and releases of nitrogen, phosphorus and carbon from soil organic matter and increased run-off and erosion will result in increased nutrient loads. 3. Reduced oxygen content. Increased biological respiration rates result in lower dissolved oxygen concentrations, particularly during low-flow periods and in the bottom layers of lakes. Higher temperature and lower oxygen concentrations will cause stress and may reduce the habitats in the lakes and rivers. Impact on Water Quality Nutrient Concentration and Pollutant Loading High temperature, Intense rainfall Increase surface and sediment runoff Tasik Metropolitan 2012 Tasik Chini 2012 algal bloom macrophyte bloom 29 National study on lake eutrophication • Desk-study in 2005, more than 60% of 90 lakes are experiencing eutrophication i.e. Sembrong Reservoir, Aman Lake, Chini Lake etc Kenyir Lake, 2012 Sembrong reservoir, 2012 Chini Lake, 2005 30 Impact on Coastal Resources 31 • Increase in erosion and sedimentation • Increase in inundations -> displacement of population • Affects infrastructure along coastal areas such as bridges, revetments, groins, breakwater and jetty • Salt water intrusion -> affect surface & groundwater • Shifting of ecosystem (i.e mangrove, marine habitat) towards hinterland 32 Case Study Sandakan Town Study Area : Sandakan Town Sandakan Pulau Town Duyong 34 Findings on Hydraulic Analysis • Increases in sea surface elevations along the waterfront; • These will also increase the wave heights and current speeds along the shoreline; • Pulau Duyong might experience a significant impact 35 Residual Projected Wave Height: Risk Maps Residual 2040 Residual 2020 Residual 2060 • Exposed northern part of Pulau Duyong will have higher wave height, while southern sheltered part of Pulau Duyong will experience lesser wave height 36 Projected Current Speed : Risk Maps Projected 2020 Baseline Projected 2060 Projected 2040 • Changes of maximum current speed caused by tidal fluctuations in year 2020, 2040 and 2060 37 Platform Elevation Loading Jetty 38 Land Losses In Vegetation Areas 39 The Way Forward • Continued R&D on hydroclimate projection, vulnerability assessment and innovative adaptation measures • Mainstreaming climate change adaptation options into planning and development • Public awareness on climate change impacts 40 Thank You for Your Attention 41 .