Haywood, A. M., Valdes, P. J., Aze, T., Barlow, N., Burke, A., Dolan, A. M., von der Heydt, A. S., Hill, D. J., Jamieson, S. S. R., Otto- Bliesner, B. L., Salzmann, U., Saupe, E., & Voss, J. (2019). What can Palaeoclimate Modelling do for you? Earth Systems and Environment, 3(1). https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-019-00093-1 Publisher's PDF, also known as Version of record License (if available): CC BY Link to published version (if available): 10.1007/s41748-019-00093-1 Link to publication record in Explore Bristol Research PDF-document This is the final published version of the article (version of record). It first appeared online via Springer Nature at https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-019-00093-1 . Please refer to any applicable terms of use of the publisher. University of Bristol - Explore Bristol Research General rights This document is made available in accordance with publisher policies. Please cite only the published version using the reference above. Full terms of use are available: http://www.bristol.ac.uk/red/research-policy/pure/user-guides/ebr-terms/ Earth Systems and Environment (2019) 3:1–18 https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-019-00093-1 ORIGINAL ARTICLE What can Palaeoclimate Modelling do for you? A. M. Haywood1 · P. J. Valdes2 · T. Aze1 · N. Barlow1 · A. Burke3 · A. M. Dolan1 · A. S. von der Heydt4 · D. J. Hill1 · S. S. R. Jamieson5 · B. L. Otto‑Bliesner6 · U. Salzmann7 · E. Saupe8 · J. Voss9 Received: 19 March 2019 / Accepted: 13 April 2019 / Published online: 22 April 2019 © The Author(s) 2019 Abstract In modern environmental and climate science it is necessary to assimilate observational datasets collected over decades with outputs from numerical models, to enable a full understanding of natural systems and their sensitivities. During the twentieth and twenty-frst centuries, numerical modelling became central to many areas of science from the Bohr model of the atom to the Lorenz model of the atmosphere. In modern science, a great deal of time and efort is devoted to developing, evalu- ating, comparing and modifying numerical models that help us synthesise our understanding of complex natural systems. Here we provide an assessment of the contribution of past (palaeo) climate modelling to multidisciplinary science and to society by answering the following question: What can palaeoclimate modelling do for you? We provide an assessment of how palaeoclimate modelling can develop in the future to further enhance multidisciplinary research that aims to understand Earth’s evolution, and what this may tell us about the resilience of natural and social systems as we enter the Anthropocene. Keywords Climate · Model · Palaeoclimate · Global change · Environmental change · Earth history 1 Introduction a General Circulation Model (GCM) were published in the 1970s for the Last Glacial Maximum (e.g., Gates 1976). Complex climate models, and latterly Earth System Models Since then it has become apparent that to fully appreciate the (ESMs), are in the vanguard of attempts to assess the efects, complex interactions between climate and the environment, risks and potential impacts associated with the anthropo- and to use this knowledge to address societal challenges, it genic emission of greenhouse gases (GHG: IPCC 2013). is necessary to adopt multidisciplinary scientifc approaches Climate predictions underpin scientifc assessments of miti- capable of robustly testing long-standing hypotheses that gation and societal adaptation pathways (IPCC 2013). describe the sensitivity/resilience of our planet and the life The use of models to understand the evolution of our forms that inhabit it. Multidisciplinary studies have provided planet’s climate, environment and life (Fig. 1), collectively unique ways of evaluating the efcacy of climate and ESM known as past (palaeo) climate modelling, has matured in predictions in reproducing large-scale climate changes that its capacity and capability since the frst simulations using occurred in the past (Haywood et al. 2013), and this has * A. M. Haywood 5 Department of Geography, Durham University, South Road, [email protected] Durham DH1 3LE, UK 6 Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center 1 School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, for Atmospheric Research, 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, Woodhouse Lane, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK CO 80305, USA 2 School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, 7 Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, University Road, Bristol BS8 1SS, UK Northumbria University, Newcastle City Campus, 2 Ellison 3 Laboratoire d’Ecomorphologie et de Paleoanthropologie, Place, Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 8ST, UK Universite de Montreal, Departement d’Anthropologie, 8 Department of Earth Sciences, University of Oxford, South C.P. 6128, Centre-Ville, Montreal, QC H3C 3J7, Canada Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3AN, UK 4 Department of Physics, Centre for Complex Systems Science, 9 School of Mathematics, University of Leeds, Woodhouse Utrecht University, Princetonplein 5, 3584CC Utrecht, Lane, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK The Netherlands Vol.:(0123456789)1 3 2 A. M. Haywood et al. Fig. 1 Global annual mean temperature variation of the Earth through iferous (C) Permian (P), Triassic (Tr), Jurassic (J) Cretaceous (K), time (last 400 million years) predicted by the Hadley Centre Coupled Eocene (Eoc), Oligocene (Oli.), Miocene (Mio), Pliocene and Pleis- Climate Model version 3 (HadCM3), compared with geologically tocene (Pleist.)] Future predictions of temperature change are based derived estimates of temperature variability over the same period [the on HadCM3 simulations using diferent Representative Concentration Royer et al. 2004 temperature record, the Zachos et al. 2008; Lisiecki Pathways (RCPs). Horizontal blue lines represent geological evidence and Raymo 2005 benthic oxygen isotope stack, as well as the EPICA for ice sheets in the northern (NH) and southern (SH) hemispheres. and NGRIP ice core records; Jouzel et al. 2007 and NGRIP Mem- Major evolutionary characteristics and events over the last 400 mil- bers 2004. Geological epochs include the Devonian (D), Carbon- lion years represented by cartoon silhouettes provided valuable out-of-sample tests for the tools used to addresses societal needs, as generally expressed through predict future climate and environmental change. UN SDGs and scientific grand challenges, is not fully The march towards multidisciplinary assessment of past appreciated either. Here we address this issue through the climate and environmental states has accelerated through the exploration of palaeoclimate modelling’ s (using complex construction of models that have more complete representa- numerical models) contribution to the better understanding tions of the Earth system at higher spatial resolution. From of climate sensitivity, data-model comparison and geological relatively simple three-dimensional representations of the proxy interpretation, life and its resiliency, glacial and sea- atmosphere, models have developed to include representa- level history, hydrology, anthropology and natural resource tions of the oceans and land cover, and incorporate the inter- exploration as well as energy-based research. We also dis- actions between atmosphere, oceans, and the land and ice cuss potential avenues for the future that have the capability sheets. They have developed to enable dynamic simulation to enhance the contribution of palaeoclimate modelling to of the distribution of past vegetation cover, ice sheet distri- other disciplines and to better address societal needs. bution and variability, and ocean/terrestrial biogeochemical cycles (Prinn 2013). Each development has brought with it opportunities to form new research collaborations with 2 The Climate Sensitivity Grand Challenge observational-based scientists to test hypotheses for Earth evolution in novel and exciting ways, and to relate this Studies of climate sensitivity quantify changes in global knowledge towards addressing societal challenges. mean temperature in response to variations in atmospheric Whilst some of the contributions made by palaeoclimate CO2 concentration. The concept of equilibrium climate modelling to wider research eforts are obvious, the util- states has been crucial in this respect. Equilibrium Climate ity of, and access to, model simulations has grown to such Sensitivity (ECS) is the temperature diference in response a degree that many of the connections between palaeocli- to a doubling of CO2, where the climate is assumed to be mate modelling and other disciplines are not appreciated. in equilibrium before and after the CO 2 perturbation (e.g., Unsurprisingly, the way in which palaeoclimate modelling Von der Heydt et al. 2016). An important aim of quantifying 1 3 3 What can Palaeoclimate Modelling do for you? ECS has always been to predict future climate change, where in atmospheric CO 2 concentration (Hansen et al. 2008). ECS plays a role in quantifying the expected warming in One of the most salient observations made by palaeocli- the year 2100. Moreover, in view of recent plans to limit matology is that the magnitude of reconstructed climate future global warming to between 1.5 and 2 °C (Paris Agree- change in the past can be hard to reconcile with the abso- ment), establishing ECS is crucial to determining how to lute CO2 forcing at a given time, and from fast(er) climate cap greenhouse gas emissions to limit warming to within feedbacks alone. This draws attention to an important this range and contribute to objectives described under the limitation of a scientifc