LME 13 – Humboldt Current Transboundary Water Assessment Programme, 2015 LME 13 – Humboldt Current Bordering countries: Chile, Peru LME Total area: 2,619,386 km2 List of indicators LME overall risk 2 POPs 8 Plastic debris 8 Productivity 2 Mangrove and coral cover 8 Chlorophyll-A 2 Reefs at risk 8 Primary productivity 3 Marine Protected Area change 8 Sea Surface Temperature 3 Cumulative Human Impact 9 Fish and Fisheries 4 Ocean Health Index 9 Annual Catch 4 Socio-economics 10 Catch value 4 Population 10 Marine Trophic Index and Fishing-in-Balance index 4 Coastal poor 10 Stock status 5 Revenues and Spatial Wealth Distribution 10 Catch from bottom impacting gear 5 Human Development Index 11 Fishing effort 6 Climate-Related Threat Indices 11 Primary Production Required 6 Governance 12 Pollution and Ecosystem Health 7 Governance architecture 12 Nutrient ratio, Nitrogen load and Merged Indicator 7 Nitrogen load 7 Nutrient ratio 7 Merged nutrient indicator 7 1/12 LME 13 – Humboldt Current Transboundary Water Assessment Programme, 2015 LME overall risk This LME falls in the cluster of LMEs that exhibit low to medium levels of economic development (based on the night light development index) and medium levels of collapsed and overexploited fish stocks. Based on a combined measure of the Human Development Index and the averaged indicators for fish & fisheries and pollution & ecosystem health modules, the overall risk factor is high. Very low Low Medium High Very high ▲ Productivity Chlorophyll-A The annual Chlorophyll a concentration (CHL) cycle has a maximum peak (0.487 mg.m-3) in October and a minimum (0.363 mg.m-3) during March. The average CHL is 0.417 mg.m-3. Maximum primary productivity (307 g.C.m-2.y-1) occurred during 2005 and minimum primary productivity (261 g.C.m-2.y- 1) during 1998. There is a statistically insignificant decreasing trend in Chlorophyll of -17.6 % from 2003 through 2013. The average primary productivity is 281 g.C.m-2.y-1, which places this LME in Group 3 of 5 categories (with 1 = lowest and 5= highest). Very low Low Medium High Very high ▲ 2/12 LME 13 – Humboldt Current Transboundary Water Assessment Programme, 2015 Primary productivity Very low Low Medium High Very high ▲ Sea Surface Temperature Between 1957 and 2012, the Humboldt Current LME #13 has warmed by 0.24°C, thus belonging to Category 4 (slow warming LME). This long-term warming trend was not uniform. It was punctuated by warm/cold events associated with El Niños and La Niñas, respectively, particularly by the El Niños 1983 and 1997. Because of the vast north-south extent of this LME, spatial variations within it are strong. The El Niños and La Niñas strongly affect the northern part of this LME (National Weather Service/Climate PredictionCenter, 2007) yet do not exert strong impact on it southern part. The Humboldt Current experienced a 1°C cooling in 1957-1973, followed by a decade-long warming, which culminated in 1983. These opposite trends represent two major oceanic regimes. The all-time El Niño-related peak of 17.6°C in 1997 was exceptional. From 1999 through 2012 SST remained rather low, <16.5°C. 3/12 LME 13 – Humboldt Current Transboundary Water Assessment Programme, 2015 Fish and Fisheries The Humboldt Current LME’s high productivity supports the world’s largest fisheries. Annual Catch In 1994, fisheries catches by Peru and Chile amounted to around 13 million t. These two countries account for 16% to 20% of the global fish catch, mostly in the form of small schooling pelagic fish such as sardines, anchovies (especially the ‘anchoveta’, Engraulis ringens) and mackerels. Total reported landings show considerable fluctuation, with two major peaks at over 10 million t and 13 million t in 1970 and 1994 respectively, which actual catches likely to be much higher. Catch value The value of the reported landings also fluctuates, reaching about 9 billion US$ (in 2005 real US$) in 1994. Marine Trophic Index and Fishing-in-Balance index The MTI, in this system, which in the early 1950s looked like most other LMEs (MTI of about 3.4), plunged as soon as the fisheries for anchoveta, a low-trophic level species, took off. Indeed, for two decades, this fishery was the largest single-species fishery in the world, with some of its fluctuations in landings reflected in the FiB index. Because of the dominance of anchoveta in the landings of the LME, the MTI and FiB index are not currently informative as to the status of the ecosystem. However, their trends with the anchoveta removed, and thus reflecting the assemblage exploited by coastal fisheries, show strong signs of "fishing down". 4/12 LME 13 – Humboldt Current Transboundary Water Assessment Programme, 2015 Stock status The Stock-Catch Status Plots indicate that about 60% of commercially exploited stocks in the LME are either overexploited or have collapsed. This is, at least in part, a definitional artefact, because of the classification of anchoveta as an overexploited stock, having experienced its maximum catch in the early 1970s, even though its catches have recovered in recent years. Here again, the analysis may benefit from being conducted without the anchoveta catch (see www.seaaroundus.org). Catch from bottom impacting gear The percentage of catch from the bottom gear type to the total catch reached its peak at 13% in 1952 and then declined to less than 1% in the 1960s. In the recent decade, this percentage ranged between 1.4 and 2%. 5/12 LME 13 – Humboldt Current Transboundary Water Assessment Programme, 2015 Fishing effort The total effective effort continuously increased from around 15 million kW in the 1950s to its peak at 180 million kW in the mid- 2000s. Primary Production Required The primary production required (PPR) to sustain the reported landings reached 20% of the observed primary production in the LME in the mid-1990s, and has fluctuated around this level in recent years. 6/12 LME 13 – Humboldt Current Transboundary Water Assessment Programme, 2015 Pollution and Ecosystem Health Pollution Nutrient ratio, Nitrogen load and Merged Indicator Human activities in watersheds are affecting nutrients transported by rivers into LMEs. Large amounts of nutrients (in particular nitrogen load) entering coastal waters of LMEs can result in high biomass algal blooms, leading to hypoxic or anoxic conditions, increased turbidity and changes in community composition, among other effects. In addition, changes in the ratio of nutrients entering LMEs can result in dominance by algal species that have deleterious effects (toxic, clog gills of shellfish, etc.) on ecosystems and humans. An overall nutrient indicator (Merged Nutrient Indicator) based on 2 sub-indicators: Nitrogen Load and Nutrient Ratio (ratio of dissolved Silica to Nitrogen or Phosphorus - the Index of Coastal Eutrophication Potential or ICEP) was calculated. Nitrogen load The Nitrogen Load risk level for contemporary (2000) conditions was low (level 2 of the five risk categories, where 1 = lowest risk; 5 = highest risk). Based on a “current trends” scenario (Global Orchestration), this remained low in 2030 and increased to moderate by 2050. Nutrient ratio The Nutrient Ratio (ICEP) risk level for contemporary (2000) conditions was very low (1). According to the Global Orchestration scenario, this remained the same in 2030 and increased to low in 2050. Merged nutrient indicator The risk level for the Merged Nutrient Indicator for contemporary (2000) conditions was low (2). According to the Global Orchestration scenario, this remained the same in 2030 and increased to moderate in 2050. 2000 2030 2050 Merged Merged Merged Nitrogen Nutrient Nitrogen Nutrient Nitrogen Nutrient nutrient nutrient nutrient load ratio load ratio load ratio indicator indicator indicator 2 1 2 2 1 2 3 2 3 Legend: Very low Low Medium High Very high 7/12 LME 13 – Humboldt Current Transboundary Water Assessment Programme, 2015 POPs Data are available for three samples at three locations in Chile. These locations show low concentrations for all the indicators. The average concentration (ng.g-1 of pellets) was 29 (range 4 – 50 ng.g-1) for PCBs, 8 (range 2 – 16 ng.g-1) for DDTs, and 1.0 (range 0.2 – 2.5 ng.g-1) for HCHs. The PCBs and DDTs averages correspond to risk category 2 and HCHs to risk category 1, of the five risk categories (1 = lowest risk; 5 = highest risk). Relatively higher PCB concentrations at San Vicente and San Antonio are probably due to proximity to large cities. PCBs DDTs HCHs Locations Avg. Risk Avg. Risk Avg. Risk (ng/g) (ng/g) (ng/g) 3 29 2 8 2 1.0 1 Legend: Very low Low Medium High Very high Plastic debris Modelled estimates of floating plastic abundance (items km-2), for both micro-plastic (<4.75 mm) and macro-plastic (>4.75 mm), indicate that this LME is in the group with relatively low levels of plastic concentration. Estimates are based on three proxy sources of litter: shipping density, coastal population density and the level of urbanisation within major watersheds, with enhanced run-off. The low values are due to the relative remoteness of this LME from significant sources of plastic. The abundance of floating plastic in this category is estimated to be on average over 40 times lower that those LMEs with the highest values. There is evidence from sea-based direct observations and towed nets to support this conclusion. Ecosystem Health Mangrove and coral cover 0.0001% of this LME is covered by mangroves (US Geological Survey, 2011). Reefs at risk Not applicable. Marine Protected Area change The Humboldt Current LME experienced an increase in MPA coverage from 2,463 km2 prior to 1983 to 5,798 km2 by 2014.