Courtesy Translation in English Provided by the Translation Services of the European Commission National Energy and Climate Plan of Hungary (Draft) 2018 TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS ........................................................................................................................................ 1 LIST OF FIGURES ............................................................................................................................................... 3 LIST OF TABLES ................................................................................................................................................. 6 1. PROCESS OF REVIEWING AND DRAWING UP THE PLAN ........................................................................... 7 SUMMARY................................................................................................................................................. 7 OVERVIEW OF CURRENT POLICIES ................................................................................................................. 14 CONSULTATIONS AND INVOLVEMENT OF NATIONAL AND EU ENTITIES AND THEIR OUTCOME .................................... 18 REGIONAL COOPERATION IN PREPARING THE PLAN ........................................................................................... 22 2. TARGETS AND OBJECTIVES ..................................................................................................................... 22 DIMENSION OF DECARBONISATION ............................................................................................................... 22 2.1.1. GHG emissions and removals ...................................................................................................... 22 2.1.2. Renewable energy ....................................................................................................................... 24 DIMENSION OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY .............................................................................................................. 26 DIMENSION OF ENERGY SECURITY ................................................................................................................ 28 DIMENSION OF THE INTERNAL ENERGY MARKET .............................................................................................. 31 2.4.1. Interconnection of electricity networks....................................................................................... 31 2.4.2. Energy transmission infrastructure ............................................................................................. 32 2.4.3. Market integration...................................................................................................................... 33 2.4.4. Energy poverty ............................................................................................................................ 36 DIMENSION OF RESEARCH, INNOVATION AND COMPETITIVENESS ........................................................................ 37 3. POLICIES AND MEASURES ...................................................................................................................... 38 DIMENSION OF DECARBONISATION ............................................................................................................... 38 3.1.1. GHG emissions and removals ...................................................................................................... 38 3.1.2. Renewable energy ....................................................................................................................... 39 3.1.3. Other elements of the dimension ................................................................................................ 43 DIMENSION OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY .............................................................................................................. 43 DIMENSION OF ENERGY SECURITY ................................................................................................................ 46 DIMENSION OF THE INTERNAL ENERGY MARKET .............................................................................................. 46 3.4.1. Electricity infrastructure.............................................................................................................. 46 3.4.2. Energy transmission infrastructure ............................................................................................. 46 3.4.3. Market integration...................................................................................................................... 47 3.4.4. Energy poverty ............................................................................................................................ 48 DIMENSION OF RESEARCH, INNOVATION AND COMPETITIVENESS ........................................................................ 48 4. PRESENT SITUATION AND FORECASTING WITH EXISTING POLICIES ....................................................... 48 PROJECTED EVOLUTION OF MAIN EXOGENOUS FACTORS INFLUENCING ENERGY SYSTEM AND GHG EMISSION DEVELOPMENTS ..................................................................................................................................................... 48 DIMENSION OF DECARBONISATION ............................................................................................................... 50 4.2.1. GHG emissions and removals ...................................................................................................... 50 4.2.2. Renewable energy ....................................................................................................................... 59 DIMENSION OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY .............................................................................................................. 66 DIMENSION OF ENERGY SECURITY ................................................................................................................ 73 DIMENSION OF THE INTERNAL ENERGY MARKET .............................................................................................. 82 4.5.1. Electricity interconnectivity ......................................................................................................... 82 1 4.5.2. Energy transmission infrastructure ............................................................................................. 83 4.5.3. Electricity and gas markets, energy prices .................................................................................. 86 DIMENSION OF RESEARCH, INNOVATION AND COMPETITIVENESS ........................................................................ 89 5. IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF PLANNED POLICIES AND MEASURES .............................................................. 98 EFFECTS OF PLANNED POLICIES AND MEASURES DESCRIBED IN SECTION 3 ON ENERGY SYSTEMS AND GHG EMISSIONS AND REMOVALS, INCLUDING COMPARISON TO PROJECTIONS WITH EXISTING POLICIES AND MEASURES (AS DESCRIBED IN SECTION 4). .. 98 MACROECONOMIC AND, TO THE EXTENT FEASIBLE, THE HEALTH, ENVIRONMENTAL, EMPLOYMENT AND EDUCATION, SKILLS AND SOCIAL IMPACTS, INCLUDING JUST TRANSITION ASPECTS (IN TERMS OF COSTS AND BENEFITS AS WELL AS COST-EFFECTIVENESS) OF THE PLANNED POLICIES AND MEASURES DESCRIBED IN CHAPTER 3 AT LEAST UNTIL THE LAST YEAR OF THE PERIOD COVERED BY THE PLAN, INCLUDING COMPARISON TO PROJECTIONS WITH EXISTING POLICIES AND MEASURES ................................................. 122 OVERVIEW OF INVESTMENT NEEDS ............................................................................................................. 122 EFFECTS OF PLANNED POLICIES AND MEASURES DESCRIBED IN CHAPTER 3 ON OTHER MEMBER STATES AND REGIONAL COOPERATION AT LEAST UNTIL THE LAST YEAR OF THE PERIOD COVERED BY THE PLAN, INCLUDING COMPARISON TO PROJECTIONS WITH EXISTING POLICIES AND MEASURES ................................................................................................................... 123 2 LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE 1 – GHG REDUCTION SCENARIOS OUTLINED IN THE SECOND NATIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE STRATEGY (NCCS-2). ................ 9 FIGURE 2 - PROJECTION OF INSTALLED CAPACITY OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION FROM RENEWABLE SOURCES, IN CONSIDERATION OF THE IMPACT OF EXISTING POLICY MEASURES .................................................................................................................. 11 FIGURE 3 - THE NECP CONSULTATION PROCESS .............................................................................................................. 19 FIGURE 4 - GHG EMISSION INTENSITY OF THE HUNGARIAN ECONOMY .................................................................................. 51 FIGURE 5 - PRIMARY ENERGY INTENSITY OF THE HUNGARIAN ECONOMY (2005–2015) .......................................................... 52 FIGURE 6 - GHG EMISSIONS WITH EXISTING POLICIES AND MEASURES (2015–2030) ............................................................. 55 FIGURE 7 - GROSS GHG EMISSIONS PER GAS, WITH EXISTING POLICIES AND MEASURES (2015–2030) ...................................... 55 FIGURE 8 - ETS AND ESR EMISSIONS WITH EXISTING POLICIES AND MEASURES (2005–2030).................................................. 56 FIGURE 9 – PROJECTION OF GHG EMISSIONS FROM THE USE OF ENERGY (TOTAL ENERGY) IN CONSIDERATION OF THE IMPACT OF EXISTING POLICY MEASURES ................................................................................................................................. 57 FIGURE 10 - PROJECTION OF GHG EMISSIONS FROM THE USE OF ENERGY IN THE END-USE