ress.ac.za ress.ac.za p Free download from www.hsrc ress.ac.za ress.ac.za p Compiled by the Democracy and Governance Research Programme, Human Sciences Research Council First published in South Africa by HSRC Press Private Bag X9182, Cape Town, 8000, South Africa www.hsrcpress.ac.za Published in the rest of the world by Michigan State University Press East Lansing, Michigan, 48823-5202, United States of America © 2005 Human Sciences Research Council First published 2005 All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or Free download from www.hsrc utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers. Copy editing by Vaun Cornell Typeset by Christabel Hardacre Cover design by Flame Design Cover photograph by Yassir Booley Production by comPress Printed in the Republic of South Africa by Paarl Print Distributed in South Africa by Blue Weaver Marketing and Distribution PO Box 30370, Tokai, Cape Town, 7966, South Africa. Tel: +27 +21 701-4477 Fax: +27 +21 701-7302 email: [email protected] In South Africa ISBN 0-7969-2086-9 In the rest of the world ISBN 0-87013-716-6 Contents ress.ac.za ress.ac.za p List of tables vi List of figures viii Foreword xi Mark Orkin Acronyms xiii Introduction: President Mbeki’s second term: opening the golden door? xix John Daniel, Roger Southall and Jessica Lutchman Part I: Politics Introduction 3 1 Race and identity in the nation 9 Free download from www.hsrc Zimitri Erasmus 2 The state of parties post-election 2004: ANC dominance and opposition enfeeblement 34 Roger Southall and John Daniel 3 Rural governance and citizenship in post-1994 South Africa: democracy compromised? 58 Lungisile Ntsebeza 4 The state of corruption and accountability 86 Sam Sole 5 The state of the public service 112 Vino Naidoo Part II: Society Introduction 137 6 The state of crime and policing 144 Ted Leggett 7 The state of the military 117 Len Le Roux and Henri Boshoff ress.ac.za ress.ac.za p 8 The state of South Africa’s schools 210 Linda Chisholm 9 HIV/AIDS: finding ways to contain the pandemic 227 Tim Quinlan and Sarah Willan 10 Multiple communities: Muslims in post-apartheid South Africa 252 Goolam Vahed and Shamil Jeppie 11 The state of the art(s) 287 Lynn Maree 12 The state of the archives and access to information 313 Seán Morrow and Luvuyo Wotshela 13 A virtuous circle? Gender equality and representation in South Africa 336 Free download from www.hsrc Shireen Hassim Part III: Economy Introduction 363 14 An overview of the South African economy 367 Stephen Gelb 15 Who owns South Africa: an analysis of state and private ownership patterns 401 Reg Rumney 16 The state of employment 423 Miriam Altman 17 Black empowerment and corporate capital 455 Roger Southall 18 ‘Empty stomachs, empty pockets’: poverty and inequality in post-apartheid South Africa 479 Benjamin Roberts 19 A better life for all? Service delivery and poverty alleviation 511 David Hemson and Kwame Owusu-Ampomah ress.ac.za ress.ac.za Part IV: South Africa in Africa p Introduction 541 20 South Africa and Nigeria: two unequal centres in a periphery 544 John Daniel, Jessica Lutchman and Sanusha Naidu 21 South Africa’s quiet diplomacy: the case of Zimbabwe 569 Lloyd M Sachikonye Contributors 586 Index 589 Free download from www.hsrc List of tables ress.ac.za ress.ac.za p Table 2.1 Outcome of the national elections, 1994, 1999 and 2004 38 Table 5.1 Public service growth in personnel (including apartheid period) 114 Table 5.2 Comparative economic figures for white areas and black homelands, 1985 117 Table 7.1 Expenditure estimates and summarised outputs for DoD programmes for the medium-term expenditure framework 2004–07 (R thousands) 184 Table 7.2 Itemised expenditure for DoD, MTEF 2004–07 (R thousands) 184 Table 7.3 Numbers of members of forces integrated into SANDF 187 Table 7.4 Racial composition of the SANDF, 1994, 1998, 2003 188 Table 7.5 Gender composition of SANDF, 1994, 1998, 2003 188 Free download from www.hsrc Table 7.6 Approved force design of SANDF 192 Table 8.1 Provincial education expenditure per programme (R millions) 209 Table 8.2 Expenditure per learner by province (Rand) 209 Table 8.3 Enrolment in educator training at universities and technikons, 2000 and 2001 214 Table 8.4 Changing union membership, 1999– 2002 214 Table 8.5 Number of teachers in schools, per province 223 Table 9.1 Summary of HIV/AIDS-specific allocations in the national Budget 233 Table 9.2 Overall HIV prevalence (extrapolated from study sample) by province, South Africa 2002 240 Table 9. 3 Provincial HIV prevalence, antenatal clinic attendees, South Africa 1994–2002 241 Table 9.4 Extrapolation of HIV prevalence amongst antenatal clinic attendees to the general population, 2000–02 241 Table 9.5 Cost of HIV to three companies in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa 243 vi Table 10.1 Muslim population per province and race 253 Table 14.1 Government budget: size and distribution 371 Table 14.2 Decomposition of aggregate demand, 1989–2003 392 Table 14.3 Sectoral output shares, 1995 prices 395 Table 14.4 Percentage shares of merchandise exports, by sector 396 Table 16.1 Unemployment rates by region and gender, 2003 (percentages) 424 ress.ac.za ress.ac.za Table 16.2 Unemployment trends (percentages) 425 p Table 16.3 Summary of net employment creation (thousands) 434 Table 16.4 Female earnings as a percentage of male earnings, formal sector 2002 438 Table 16.5 Mean monthly incomes 440 Table 16.6 Unionisation 443 Table 16.7 Average year-on-year growth rates of productivity and real wages 444 Table 18.1 Subjective assessment of food insecurity in South African households by province and area of residence, 1995–2002 (percentage) 491 Table 18.2 Annual per capita income by race group (percentage of Free download from www.hsrc white level) 494 Table 18.3 Gini coefficients by population group using per capita income 495 Table 18.4 Decomposition of national income by income source and poverty status (percentage share in overall Gini) 496 Table 19.1 Forms of household sanitation 1995 and 2001 (percentage) 521 Table 19.2 Main reason for interruption of water service for more than one day by monthly household income 526 Table 19.3 Human Development Index and life expectancy trends 531 Table 20.1 Rand value of South African exports by continent/region, 2000–03 547 Table 20.2 South Africa’s top five African trading partners (R billions) 549 Table 20.3 South African investments in Africa by region and investment type, value in R millions and by market share, 1997–2001 551 Table 20.4 African investments by region in South Africa, value in R millions and by market share, 1997–2001 552 Table 20.5 Major South African companies in other African countries by sector (selected companies) 554 vii List of figures ress.ac.za ress.ac.za p Figure 2.1 Comparison of 1994, 1999 and 2004 elections by votes 39 Figure 2.2 Voter registration and valid votes for 1994, 1999 and 2004 elections 39 Figure 5.1 Comparative racial representation within central public service 115 Figure 5.2 Profile of public service, 2003 118 Figure 5.3 Racial composition of South African public service, 2003 119 Figure 5.4 Senior managers by race and salary level 119 Figure 5.5 Senior managers by provincial administration and national departments 121 Figure 6.1 Percentage change in crime rates between 1994–95 and Free download from www.hsrc 2002–03 151 Figure 7.1 Structure of the Department of Defence 181 Figure 9.1 HIV prevalence rate by skill level in South Africa 244 Figure 14.1 Fiscal balances as share of GDP, 1990–2003 373 Figure 14.2 Exchange rate volatility, 1982–2003, percentage change in effective rates, quarterly 377 Figure 14.3 Capital inflows, quarterly, 1990–2003 379 Figure 14.4 Effective exchange rate indices, monthly 1990–2003, 1995=100 380 Figure 14.5 Interest rates and inflation, 1983–2003 381 Figure 14.6 GDP growth, consumption growth and changes in capital formation, 1983–2003 384 Figure 14.7 Investment as share of GDP, 1982–2003 385 Figure 14.8 National savings as share of GDP, 1982–2003 388 Figure 14.9 Balance of payments, 1982–2003 390 viii Figure 14.10 Trade components as share of GDP, 1982–2003 391 Figure 16.1 GDP and unemployment 426 Figure 16.2 Unemployment by race 426 Figure 16.3 Comparing strict and broad unemployment 427 Figure 16.4 Number of unemployed by age 248 Figure 16.5 Employment and labour force 248 ress.ac.za ress.ac.za p Figure 16.6 ‘Not working’, as a percentage of working age population, by race 429 Figure 16.7 GDP and employment growth – comparing formal non- agricultural private sector employment in the LFS and SEE 431 Figure 16.8 Employment in formal and non-formal sectors 432 Figure 16.9 Change in formal employment 433 Figure 16.10 Distribution of employment, broad sectors 433 Figure 16.11 Formal employment by skill level 435 Figure 16.12 Proportion of labour force, productive and unproductive 437 Figure 16.13 Wage trends by skill level in the formal sector, 2000 prices 437 Figure 16.14 Formal sector workers with written contract, by skill category 439 Free download from www.hsrc Figure 16.15 Formal sector workers with pension plan, by skill category 439 Figure 16.16 Earnings in the formal and informal sector, by level of education, 2002 441 Figure 18.1 Incidence of poverty by province (percentage of households) 487 Figure 18.2 Change in employment and economically active population by race and gender, 1995–99 (percentage)