Review of Current and Planned Adaptation Action in Namibia CARIAA Working Paper #12 Alec Crawford Anika Terton CARIAA Working Paper #12 Crawford, A. and Terton, A. 2016. Review of current and planned adaptation action in Namibia. CARIAA Working Paper no. 12. International Development Research Centre, Ottawa, Canada and UK Aid, London, United Kingdom. Available online at: www.idrc.ca/cariaa. ISSN: 2292-6798 This CARIAA working paper has been prepared by the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD). About CARIAA Working Papers This series is based on work funded by Canada’s International Development Research Centre (IDRC) and the UK’s Department for International Development (DFID) through the Collaborative Adaptation Research Initiative in Africa and Asia (CARIAA). CARIAA aims to build the resilience of vulnerable populations and their livelihoods in three climate change hot spots in Africa and Asia. The program supports collaborative research to inform adaptation policy and practice. Titles in this series are intended to share initial findings and lessons from research and background studies commissioned by the program. Papers are intended to foster exchange and dialogue within science and policy circles concerned with climate change adaptation in vulnerability hotspots. As an interim output of the CARIAA program, they have not undergone an external review process. Opinions stated are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the policies or opinions of IDRC, DFID, or partners. Feedback is welcomed as a means to strengthen these works: some may later be revised for peer-reviewed publication. Contact Collaborative Adaptation Research Initiative in Africa and Asia c/o International Development Research Centre PO Box 8500, Ottawa, ON Canada K1G 3H9 Tel: (+1) 613-236-6163; Email: [email protected] Creative Commons License This Working Paper is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial- ShareAlike 4.0 International License. Articles appearing in this publication may be freely quoted and reproduced provided that i) the source is acknowledged, ii) the material is not used for commercial purposes, and iii) any adaptations of the material are distributed under the same license. © 2016 International Development Research Centre Cover photos: Top: © PANOS/Jean-Leo Dugast Bottom: © PANOS/Abbie Trayler-Smith Left: © Blane Harvey CARIAA Working Paper #12 Abstract Climate change presents a very real challenge to Namibia’s continued development progress. The country is already home to a harsh environment dominated by desert and low levels of precipitation. Population growth, severe inequality, and development trends will interact with changing rainfall patterns, rising temperatures, increased rates of evapotranspiration, and rising sea levels to exacerbate water scarcity and other existing vulnerabilities. Despite these risks, Namibia is considered less vulnerable to the impacts of climate change than most of the countries of sub-Saharan Africa, which is more a function of its development status and sparse population than a reflection of its exposure to climate change or its policy environment. The country’s climate vulnerability is closely tied to its aridity and high level of water scarcity. The government has identified six key sectors as particularly vulnerable: water and wetlands; agriculture; sea level rise, the coastal zone, and fisheries; tourism; health; and disaster risk management. The government has prioritized climate change action and has passed a national climate change policy; however, momentum on the subject is strongly tied to donor interest and funding. Adaptation programs and projects currently under way in Namibia, as well as adaptation networks and communities of practice, are limited. This report provides an overview of these issues. It is one in a series of country reviews prepared to provide the Collaborative Adaptation Research Initiative in Africa and Asia with a snapshot of adaptation action in its countries of engagement. iii CARIAA Working Paper #12 Résumé Examen des mesures d’adaptation actuelles et prévues en Namibie Les changements climatiques représentent un véritable obstacle au développement continu de la Namibie. Le pays présente déjà un environnement rude dominé par le désert et par de faibles taux de précipitations. À la croissance de la population, aux importantes inégalités et aux tendances en matière de développement s’ajoutent la modification des régimes pluviométriques, la hausse des températures, la hausse des taux d’évapotranspiration et la montée du niveau de la mer, ce qui exacerbe les pénuries d’eau et d’autres vulnérabilités existantes. Malgré ces risques, la Namibie est considérée comme moins vulnérable aux effets des changements climatiques que la plupart des pays d’Afrique subsaharienne, du fait de son stade de développement et de sa faible population plutôt que du fait de son exposition aux changements climatiques ou de ses politiques. La vulnérabilité climatique du pays est étroitement liée à son aridité et à une importante pénurie d’eau. Le gouvernement a déterminé six secteurs principaux comme étant particulièrement vulnérables : les bassins hydrographiques et les zones humides; l’agriculture; la montée du niveau de la mer; le littoral et les pêches; le tourisme; la santé; et la gestion des risques de catastrophe. Le gouvernement accorde la priorité aux mesures de réponse aux changements climatiques et a mis en œuvre une politique relative aux changements climatiques. Cependant, l’élan relativement à ce sujet est étroitement lié à l’intérêt et au financement des bailleurs de fonds. Les programmes et projets d’adaptation en cours en Namibie, ainsi que les réseaux d’adaptation et les communautés de pratique, sont limités. Ce rapport fournit un aperçu de ces enjeux. Cet examen fait partie d’une série d’examens des pays préparés dans le cadre de l’Initiative de recherche concertée sur l’adaptation en Afrique et en Asie qui donnent un aperçu des mesures d’adaptation dans les pays où elle est déployée. iv CARIAA Working Paper #12 Acronyms ASSAR Adaptation at Scale in Semi-Arid Regions CARIAA Collaborative Adaptation Research Initiative in Africa and Asia CIA Central Intelligence Agency IDRC International Development Research Centre IIED International Institute for Environment and Development IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change MDG Millennium Development Goal MET Ministry of Environment and Tourism NCCC National Climate Change Committee NCCP National Climate Change Policy NCCSAP National Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan ND-GAIN Notre Dame’s Global Adaptation Index NDP national development plan OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development OPM Office of the Prime Minister SASSCAL Southern African Science Service Centre for Climate Change and Adaptive Land Management UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change v CARIAA Working Paper #12 About the authors Alec Crawford Associate, International Institute for Sustainable Development Toronto, Canada Alec Crawford is a researcher with the CARIAA-supported review of current and planned adaptation in the CARIAA program’s countries of focus. His research examines the links among environmental change, natural resources, conflict, and peacebuilding in fragile states. Contact: [email protected] Anika Terton Project Officer, International Institute for Sustainable Development Winnipeg, Canada Anika Terton is a researcher with the CARIAA-supported review of current and planned adaptation in the CARIAA program’s countries of focus. She undertakes research in areas such as transitioning to the green economy, achieving the Sustainable Development Goals, and building climate resilience in the Canadian Prairies and internationally. Contact: [email protected] vi CARIAA Working Paper #12 Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank Margaret N. Angula, from the University of Namibia and a researcher on the Adaptation at Scale in Semi-Arid Regions (ASSAR) project, for her valuable input on this report, and Jo-Ellen Parry for her invaluable guidance and advice in the preparation of this report. vii CARIAA Working Paper #12 Contents Abstract ....................................................................................................................................................................... iii Résumé ......................................................................................................................................................................... iv Synopsis ....................................................................................................................................................................... ix Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................ 1 1. Current climate and projected changes ............................................................................................ 2 2. Vulnerability to climate change ........................................................................................................... 4 2.1 Current drivers of vulnerability .......................................................................................................... 4 2.2 Vulnerability of key sectors, groups and regions ........................................................................ 8 3. Adaptation planning context .............................................................................................................