The Space Congress® Proceedings 1983 (20th) Space: The Next Twenty Years Apr 1st, 8:00 AM The Role, Rationale, and Economics of a Shuttle Derived Cargo Vehicle Frank L. Williams Director, Advanced Programs, Martin Marietta Aerospace, Denver Aerospace, Michoud Division, New Orleans, Louisiana J. R. Tewell Manager, Vehicle Systems, Martin Marietta Aerospace, Denver Aerospace, Michoud Division, New Orleans, Louisiana Follow this and additional works at: https://commons.erau.edu/space-congress-proceedings Scholarly Commons Citation Williams, Frank L. and Tewell, J. R., "The Role, Rationale, and Economics of a Shuttle Derived Cargo Vehicle" (1983). The Space Congress® Proceedings. 2. https://commons.erau.edu/space-congress-proceedings/proceedings-1983-20th/session-iic/2 This Event is brought to you for free and open access by the Conferences at Scholarly Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in The Space Congress® Proceedings by an authorized administrator of Scholarly Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. THE ROLE, RATIONALE AND ECONOMICS OF A * SHUTTLE DERIVED CARGO VEHICLE Frank L. Williams J. Robert Tewell Director, Advanced Programs Manager, Vehicle Systems Martin Marietta Aerospace Martin Marietta Aerospace Denver Aerospace Denver Aerospace Michoud Division Michoud Division New Orleans, Louisiana New Orleans, Louisiana ABSTRACT concepts will find operational use for several decades and that a number of factors The Space Transportation System is now will interact to produce specific operational and a new evolution of space derivatives of the original configuration. activities is emerging. Space is an international frontier and will be pursued The evolution of space launch vehicles in by many nations, individually and the past has been motivated by increasing collectively. Commercial exploitation of payload weights, volumes, and economics. space systems is increasing with This is reflected by Figure 1 in which international breadth. specific launch cost trends, developed by Messerschmitt-Bolkow-Blohm (MBB) for an ESA Launch services, formerly a government study, are shown. Therefore, it is provided function, also are encountering an reasonable to assume that the same evolution. International competition is motivations will govern the development of keen and plans proliferate for private launch vehicles in the Space Transportation industry involvement in this vital element System (STS) era. For example, there is an of the space flight scenario. increasing recognition that later in this decade, additional investments will be The United States has made good its required to support the growth in volume and commitment to develop and bring into weight of payloads to geosynchronous earth operational status a STS to meet its own orbit (GEO). To satisfy these future need as well as to provide launch services requirements, the U.S. space launch program to industry and other nations. lv! must remain economically attractive 'to be able to continue to support the growing U.S. The STS has tremendous growth potential commercial and international market. utilizing existing flight elements, production capacity, logistics systems and The four reusable Space Transportation launch/flight operations facilities. This System (STS) Orbiter vehicles now planned paper describes the growth potential, were originally expected to be able to place develops a rationale for a Shuttle Derived DOD and NASA payloads into low earth orbit Cargo Vehicle and illustrates its role as and have sufficient operational capability well as the economic implications of its to launch other domestic, foreign and addition to the STS inventory of launch international payloads. systems. However, current forecast of requirements INTRODUCTION and capability indicate that even the total capability of a five orbiter STS program, The United States is entering a new era in the ESA Ariane, and the continuation of some launch vehicles with the very successful of the current U.S. expendable launch completion of the design, development, test vehicle fleet will be marginal in meeting and evaluation (DDT&E) phase of the Space the requirements in the late 1980 f s and the Transportation System. It can be readily Free World's total launch capability will be projected, based on the history of launch inadequate to meet the demand of the 90 *s vehicles, that the shuttle configuration and beyond. will evolve over time, that its basic IIC-1 Accordingly, it is imperative that the LAUNCH VEHICLE AVAILABILITY possibilities for the evolution of the U.S. space launch, capabilities in the STS era be The Western World's space launch capability reviewed from the standpoint of maintaining currently consists of the STS, Titan, Delta, economica1 space opera ti ons • Atlas, Scout, ESA's Ariane, India's SLV-3, and Japan's N-l and N-2 launch vehicles. LAUNCH DEMMID .PROJECTIONS. The Scout and Scout class vehicles are not considered in this assessment because of the The 'NASA uses a space transportation Traffic relatively low performance capability in Model* formerly Mission 'Model, as support comparison to the others. Japan and India for planning and budgetary estimates which are each developing larger, Delta class list the launch site and the flight rate by launch vehicles which should be ready for user. Since the inception of the STS, the service in the early 1990's. model has been changed periodically to reflect the NASA's understanding of the user The purpose of this assessment is to community's needs and the availability of identify the availability of launch vehicles the STS to meet those needs. which could satisfy user's scheduled requirements through the year 2000. This STS model is sometimes misinterpreted to say that it portrays users 1 STS Assessment requirements. While it does incorporate the NASA's understanding of those requirements The NASA Space Transportation Operations as they can be satisfied by the STS, it is Traffic Model, 1 March 1982, has two options not required to cover the full breadth ofthe through 1994: a "24" option and a "40" users 1 needs - nor is that its purpose. The option. The 24 option builds through 1988 basic purpose is to assist the NASA to a maximum annual flight rate of 24 budgeting/planning function for the STS. flights per year with a fleet of 4 orbiters. The 40 option builds through 1991 Determination of the total requirements for to a maximum flight rate of 40 flights per space activity from the user's perspective year; however, this requires the funding of remains a much more elusive task. In the the fifth orbiter in FY 1983, which has not near term, 3 to 5 years, existing launch been approved to date. Both of these vehicle manifests can be used to establish options are shown on Figure 2. It is reasonably firm requirements. To this evident that neither option can satisfy the point , users have made sufficient user launch requirements with STS alone. commitments to be included on the schedule. Thus, one must consider additional Beyond 5 years, these requirements are expendable launch vehicles to accommodate usually not well enough defined to be the projected user demand. discussed outside of the particular user's ••organization. ELV Status For the purposes of this assessment, user Each ELV total launch rate availability, as requirements were developed primarily from shown in Figure 3, was determined using NASA and AIAA projections (References 1 and present production program plans, the 2)- A .summary of the projections are shown overall historical launch records, and In Figure 2. Two user requirements models launch rates consistent with the existing are shown - low and high - to bound the launch pads. ...anticipated demand. To provide a common base for comparison, Basically, the low model supports limited total launch rate for each ELV is plotted in new NASA space program starts, assuming Orbiter-equivalent terms. This equivalency funding constraints. The commercial portion was established by the AIAA (Reference 2). of low model Is dominated by the AIAA The resulting equivalent orbiter flights for --projection of a continued 19% annual growth each ELV are also shown in Figure 3. In communications on orbit capability — possibly a very conservative estimate. The Titan. The Titan is capable of a maximum high model considers a more favorable of 4 launches per year per launch pad. economic climate for and other civil There is one launch pad for the Titan IIIC international science (34D) at ETR and two launch pads at the , Including support of a manned Western Test Range (WTR) - one for Titan station. In the commercial IIIB (34B) and one for Titan HID (34D). environment, the high model projects a 20% Thus, a buildup to 12 flights per year is growth, starting in 1990, including possible. The current planning date of orbit materials processing and manufacturing* Titan termination is at the end of 1987. It HC-2 should be acknowledged however, that launch vehicle availability by 1990 for the commercial launchings of Titan are currently high model and by 1993 for the low model. in progress. While maintaining the current U.S. ELV fleet Delta. The Delta is to be phased out early to augment the STS appears to be a temporary in the STS era, but may sustain new life due solution, it is not a viable approach to to STS launch rate uncertainties and the meeting the user requirements in the 1990s. backed up launch demand for its services. A It is essential that an economical and total of 12 flights per year is the maximum responsive unmanned launch vehicle be anticipated for the Delta, using two launch developed to augment the STS. The most pads at ETR and one pad at WTR. Termination promising solution is a launch system based is planned for 1987. on existing STS elements, namely a Shuttle Derived Cargo Vehicle (SDCV). At las/Centaur. Atlas/Centaur is currently scheduled to support Intelsat missions SDCV CONFIGURATIONS through 1985 with no further committed missions; however, FleetSatCom is a strong All SDCV configurations presented here share potential customer through 1987.