THE STRATEGIC ROLE OF EXTERNAL ACTORS IN THE WESTERN BALKANS STUDY 1 Table of Contents Preface .................................................................................................................................. 2 Executive Summary ............................................................................................................... 3 Albania and the Influence of Outside Actors ........................................................................... 5 Bosnia and Herzegovina: A Forgotten Crossroad .................................................................. 17 Montenegro between the East and West: Who will prevail in the ‘land of seas and mountains’? ........................................................................................................................ 29 After Prespa: External influences in North Macedonia .......................................................... 48 Serbia: The Hub for External Actor Involvement ................................................................... 75 The Strategic Role of External Actors in the Western Balkans: Kosovo’s Perspective ............. 92 Conclusion ......................................................................................................................... 107 This is a joint publication of the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies and the Political Academy of the Austrian People´s Party. This publication receives funding from the European Parliament. The Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies, the Political Academy of the Austrian People´s Party and the European Parliament assume no responsibility for facts or opinions expressed in this publication or any subsequent use of the information contained therein. Sole responsibility lies on the author of the publication. The processing of the publication was concluded in December 2020. 1 Dear readers, As the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies, the Political Academy of the Austrian People's Party and the Austrian Institute for European and Security Policy, we are pleased to present to you the following study on the strategic role of the external actors in the Western Balkans. Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia are not only geographically and historically closely linked to Austria and the European Union, but are also of great economic and geopolitical importance to them. Accordingly, the influence of other states on the countries of the Western Balkans is of equally great relevance. The importance of the Western Balkans and the region’s future for the European Union can be seen by the effort the Union puts into them. European Commissioner for Neighbourhood and Enlargement Oliver Varhelyi announced in October 2020 that the EU plans to invest €9 billion in the region, under the Instrument for Pre-Accession (IPA III) between 2021 and 2027. Additionally, the EU aims to provide guarantees of €20 billion of investments through the new Western Balkans Guarantee Facility, and has also supported the Western Balkans in the global COVID-19 pandemic with €3.3 billion. Particularly in times of this pandemic and the economic crisis that accompanies it, we do not want to perceive the efforts made in the region by different countries as a race or competition. Any help is welcome and will support the region to develop further. Accordingly, this study aims to provide an objective analysis of the dimensions and nature of assistance and its strategic importance in the Western Balkans. We are convinced that the European Union will only be complete with the accession of the Western Balkans. Therefore, we hope that the results of this study will contribute to a better understanding about the role and concrete goals of other external actors in the region, and in further consequence will lead to an enhanced rapprochement between the EU and the countries from the Western Balkans. Last but not least, we would like to thank all the authors and staff involved, who have put together a detailed and high-quality study in a very short time. We hope you enjoy the results. Bettina Rausch Mikuláš Dzurinda Werner Fasslabend President of the Political President of the Wilfried President of the Austrian Academy of the Austrian Martens Centre for Institute for European and People's Party European Studies Security Policy 2 Executive Summary Der Westbalkan, eine Region welche die Staaten Albanien, Bosnien und Herzegowina, Montenegro, Nord-Mazedonien, Serbien und den Kosovo umfasst, ist heutzutage von immenser geopolitischer Bedeutung und steht zunehmend unter dem Einfluss konkurrierender Großmachtinteressen. Während der Westen, das heißt die EU und die USA, bestrebt ist diese Länder schrittweiße in den europäischen Integrationsprozess einzubinden, etwa um die Stabilität der Region zu sichern, verfolgen Akteure wie Russland, China oder die Türkei ihre eigenen Ziele. Der Zweck dieser Studie ist demnach die sechs Staaten des Westbalkans hinsichtlich deren Beeinflussung durch und Anbindung an externe Akteure näher zu beleuchten. Was dabei zu Tage gefördert wurde ist ein äußerst differenziertes Bild der Region, wobei regionale Besonderheiten in Geschichte, Religion und anderen Faktoren für die gegenwärtige Ausrichtung der jeweiligen Westbalkanstaaten entscheidend sind. So sind etwa Albanien, Nord-Mazedonien und Montenegro bereits Mitglieder der NATO und auch ein Beitritt zur EU ist ein erklärtes Ziel. Doch auch Russland, hauptsächlich in Montenegro, und die Türkei, vor allem in Albanien und Nord- Mazedonien, sind gewillt ihre durchaus gewichtige Rolle in diesen Ländern auszubauen und stoßen dabei mit ihren Bemühungen, insbesondere auf Grund oftmals zäher EU- Beitrittsverhandlungen, meist auf fruchtbaren Boden. Auf wirtschaftlicher Ebene wird auch China zunehmend zu einem ernst zu nehmenden Faktor. Auch in Bosnien und Herzegowina spielen Russland durch dessen Einfluss auf die serbische Ethnie und die Türkei auf die mehrheitlich muslimischen Bosniaken eine keineswegs unwichtige Rolle. In Serbien, obwohl eine EU- Mitgliedschaft offiziell angestrebt wird, ist Russland ein traditionell bedeutender Machtfaktor und Partner. Doch in den letzten Jahren und insbesondere im Zuge der Covid-19-Pandemie hat es China geschafft seinen Einfluss entscheidend auszuweiten und auch die USA konnten unter Trump signifikante politische Erfolge in Serbien verbuchen. Im Kosovo sind es mit Ausnahme der Türkei vor allem die EU und die USA, die auf wirtschafts- und sicherheitspolitischer Ebene den Ton angeben, auch wenn eine Eingliederung des Landes in westliche Strukturen auf Grund der komplexen politischen Lage noch in weiter Ferne steht. Wie sich zeigt, ist eine Auseinandersetzung verschiedener externer Akteure um Macht und Einfluss auf dem Westbalkan in vollem Gange. Dies birgt für eine Einbeziehung der Region in den europäischen Integrationsprozess sowie deren generelle Stabilität ein großes Risiko. Dementsprechend ist die EU, in Zusammenarbeit mit den USA, stärker als bisher gefordert die Demokratisierung des Westbalkans voranzutreiben und den Ländern eine ehrliche und realistische Perspektive im EU- Erweiterungsprozess zu bieten. 3 4 Albania and the Influence of Outside Actors Alba Cela1 Abstract Albania is a NATO member state, a candidate country with a green light to open accession negotiations with the EU and pursues an agenda of commitment to regional cooperation. Much of what will happen in the area of its international relations will depend on the European perspective of the country, which for the moment serves as an umbrella of reforms and foreign policy positions. The purpose of this paper is to briefly present and analyse the interacting dynamics in the relations that Albania has with the Western states, on the one side, and other commonly called ‘third actors’, which include Russia, China, Turkey, among others. Each case has its own particularities when it comes to the history of bilateral relations and various political, economic and social dimensions. Throughout the sections of this paper, we shall take a quick journey, visiting each one in search of understanding and, to the extent that is possible, predicting. Keywords Albania – EU – US – NATO – Russia – China – Turkey – EU integration Introduction Albania and Kosovo are unique in the Western Balkans (WB) region when it comes to their high support for and alignment with the Western states and alliances such as the US, NATO and the EU. Their preference to indicate the US as a strategic partner, to support their countries’ integration into the EU, and to rely or work together with NATO for their security vision, sets them apart from the rest of the WB countries (RCC 2020, 39). This is mainly the result of history and geopolitics and is therefore sustainable in the long run. However, this does not mean that other actors are not influential or at least do not try to gain some advantage from various access points, especially through economic or soft power. Russia, China and Turkey are all present in various forms and degrees in Albania through ties in politics, business, media, education or religion. 1 Address: Rruga Andon Zako Cajupi, nr 20 Tirana, Albania 5 The US–NATO reign Albania’s particular devotion to the United States as its strategic partner and perceived protector in the international arena dates well back. In the 1930s, the Wilson administration is credited with giving the Albanian state a real survival chance when most of the European powers at the time were not as enthusiastic about it. The Albanian