On the agrarian origins of civil conflict in Colombia María del Pilar López-Uribe - London School of Economics and Political Science Fabio Sanchez Torres - Universidad de los Andes LSE-Stanford-Universidad de los Andes Conference on Long-Run Development in Latin America, London School of Economics and Political Science, 16-17 May 2018 On the agrarian origins of civil conflict in Colombia María del Pilar López-Uribe∗ Fabio Sanchez Torres† May 14, 2018 Abstract We investigate the impact of land dispossession of peasants on the origin of the civil conflict in Colombia. Using a matching-pair instrumental variable approach, we show that the his- torical dispossession of peasants’ lands by landlords that led to the rise of peasant grievances is associated with the presence of the rural guerrilla movement -The Revolutionary Forces of Colombia (FARC)- during the first stage of the Colombian civil conflict (1974-1985). This study exploits variation in floods to identify how peasants’ land dispossessions during the export boom (1914-1946) determine the rise of rural guerrilla movements and the consolida- tion of their rebel activities. Using a novel municipal-level data set on natural disasters and land dispossession, the study documents that municipalities experiencing floods during the years 1914-1946 were substantially more likely to have land dispossession than municipalities where floods was not severe. Floods reduced temporarily the conditions of the land and its value, facilitating the dispossession of the peasants of their lands by large landowners. We propose two mechanisms through which previous land dispossession facilitated the emer- gence of rebel armed groups. On the one hand, exposure to previous events of violence gave military training and access to weapons and military experience to the rural population that likely emboldened the formation of rebel groups. On the other hand, the ideological cohesion stemming from radical liberals and communists exacerbated the grievances and helped the emergence of rebel armed groups. Keywords: Land reform, Land Conflict, Property Rights, Civil Conflict. ∗Fellow, International Development Department, London School of Economics. Email: m.d.lopez- [email protected] †Professor, Economics Department, Universidad de los Andes 1 1 Introduction The studies of the causes of civil conflicts have multiplied during the recent decades. Diverse theories and hypotheses have been proposed and tested in order to determine the origins of civil wars. The debate is still alive and conclusions usually depend on the type of data or countries of study. However, most of the literature tends to explain civil conflicts as a result of poverty or low economic performance. This study, in con- trast, examines the role of grievances stemming from peasants’ land dispossessions as a historical cause of conflict. Peasants’ land dispossessions may occur as a result of the failure of the state to protect and enforce land property rights. Such dispossessions generate grievances that may persist over time and will manifest in a civil conflict when the window of opportunity emerges. We propose that a crucial factor to understand the origin of rural guerrilla groups are land dispossessions generally by large landowners. Peasants are expelled from their lands and lose, in most cases, their only productive asset, are forced to migrate or become landless. This triggers the perception of injustice and lead to the rise of grievances, which will persist while the state does not improve peasant’s living conditions or give them access to new lands. As peasants are at risk of losing their jobs or income or facing repression, they cannot manifest their grievances. The probability that peasants will succeed on their claims by acting without coordination is low. They need resources and political opportunities to organize themselves. Once the opportunity emerge, they will rebel against the govern- ment. Thus, our approach reivindicates the role of motive -the persistence of grievances- as the ultimate cause of civil conflict. We use the political economy theory of the peas- ant society (Popkin 1992) and the resource mobilization theory (Jenkins 1983; McAdam, McCarthy and Zaid 1987) to argue that peasants organize and rebel as a response to new opportunities yet their grievances and claims are endemic to the social structure and persist over time. Our paper contribute to the quantitative literature of the origins of civil wars in two ways. On the one hand, we use a precise measure of subnational historical grievances to explain the origins of conflict. On the other hand, we explore different mechanisms that led to the emergence of conflict. We propose two mechanisms through which old land dispossessions are likely to de- termine the origin of guerrilla groups. On the one hand, the military feasibility that is viable during civil war periods when peasants groups had access to weapons and mil- 2 itary equipment. On the other hand, the ideological politics of rebellion developed by the guidance and support of the revolutionary parties that may consolidate peasants grievances, generate political awareness among the peasantry and foster the formation of rebel groups. We apply this reasoning to the rise of the most important Colombian guerrilla move- ment, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) during the early stage of the civil conflict in Colombia (1974-1985)1. The Colombian civil conflict arose in the rural areas, where land conflicts have been visible since the late 19th century. Instead of understanding the rural problems as an issue of distribution, we suggest that the main cause has been a historic problem of weak enforcement of property rights that led to the rise of grievances by the peasants, who were dispossessed of their lands by large landowners, in many cases with the informal approval of the State. Some of these grievances materialized in legal land conflicts, in which the peasant filled a land pro- tection petition or land restitution. The key element of our argument is not only the existence of grievances, but their persistence over time. The role of land as a main cause of the Colombian conflict has been constantly mentioned by academics, policy makers and guerrilla leaders. For example, the agrarian agreement was the first one out of the six agreed during the recent peace talks between the government and FARC. Since its foundation, this guerrilla has had the land issue at the center of its political agenda. Their leaders often mentioned as the cause of armed conflict the expansion of the latifundio and the violent dispossession of the peasant’ lands by the landowners, they demanded the abolition of large properties that, according to them, consolidated through legal fraud and dispossessions. Land dispossessions in the rural areas have also impacted the food’s market and production and have led to forced displacement and more poverty of the peasantry (Reyes, 2016). Weak property rights that facilitate land dispossessions have been at the centre of the political discussion in Colombia since 19th century. Important land reforms, such the law 200 of 1936 or law 135 of 1961, aimed at facilitating the access of public land to peasants and settlers but nonetheless failed. A solution of the land issues was also the main claim that the guerrilla group FARC stated in its demands and was at the 1The boundaries of the period of the study relate to the social foundation of the FARC (1964) and the breakdown of the agreements of ’La Uribe" between Betancourt government and FARC (1985). We exclude the following years since the civil war became more complex and hard to disentangle due to the appearance of drug trafficking and the paramilitaries 3 center of the debate during the Second Guerrilla Conference in 1966 when they decided to named themselves as FARC. In the Colombian case, peasants’ claims have remained mostly unchanged during the 20th century: access to land and higher provision of public goods. But the opportunity to demand them without the use of violence were only possible when a window of political opportunity and the economic resources appeared. This work argues that the differences in the intensity of armed conflict at municipal level during its early stage (1974-1985) were due to old peasant’s land dispossessions by large landowners that led to the rise and persistence of grievances. To test this argument, we use historical data that includes, among others, measures of land dispossessions, FARC rebel activities, exposure to the civil war and support to revolutionary parties. We show, first, that there is a strong link between FARC rebel activity(1974-1985) and land dispossessions during the export coffee expansion (1916-1946). And second, that the link is mediated by the exposure to the previous civil war "La Violencia", facilitating that small peasant groups had access to weapons and military experience (Molano 2015, Collier Collier, Hoeffler and Rohner 2009), and by an ideological cohesion lead by the communist party. We follow the methodology used by Acemoglu et al (2012) and use an identification strategy that combines a matching methodology with an instrumental variable approach. We compare municipalities that experienced land dispossession during the coffee expan- sion 1916-1948 and neighboring municipalities that did not. In order to deal with the plausible endogeneity problems and measurement error, we use as instrumental variable for land dispossessions floods during the export boom. Floods can generate damages on land plots by eroding the boundaries of properties, destroying crops, reducing their value and, in some cases, forcing peasants to migrate. Landowners can easily cope with floods shocks since they can rely on multiple sources of income or have easy access to credit. On the contrary, peasants, have limited access to markets and credits and rely entirely on their lands to survive. This vulnerability of peasants to climate shocks can be exploited by landowners who can dispossess the peasants from their lands.