Wagga Wagga Special Activation Precinct Strategic Economic and Employment Analysis PREPARED FOR NSW DEPARTMENT OF PLANNING, INDUSTRY AND ENVIRONMENT July 2020 Important Notice © MacroPlan Holdings Pty Ltd All Rights Reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced, transmitted, stored in a retrieval system, or translated into any language in any form by any means without the written permission of MacroPlan Holdings Pty Ltd. All Rights Reserved. All methods, processes, commercial proposals and other contents described in this document are the confidential intellectual property of MacroPlan Holdings Pty Ltd and may not be used or disclosed to any party without the written permission of MacroPlan Holdings Pty Ltd. MacroPlan staff responsible for this report: Dr. Nigel Stapledon, Chief Advisor Daniela Vujic, Senior Strategic Planning Manager - NSW Lainey Haratsis, Consultant Version Version No. Author(s) Draft report 1.0 NS, DV, LH Final Report 1.0 NS, DV, LH Contact Level 10 580 George Street Sydney NSW 2000 (02) 9221 5211 [email protected] Table of contents Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................... 6 Introduction...............................................................................................................................10 Stakeholder Consultation .........................................................................................................12 2.1 Consultation .............................................................................................................................12 Summary of Consultation Findings ..................................................................................................14 Economic Narrative ..................................................................................................................15 Strategic Context ......................................................................................................................17 4.1 Riverina Murray Regional Plan 2036 ........................................................................................17 4.2 A 20-Year Economic Vision for Regional NSW (2018) .............................................................19 4.3 Eastern Riverina: Regional Economic Development Strategy (2018) ......................................21 4.4 New South Wales: Strong, smart and connected. The NSW Government Defence and Industry Strategy 2017 ...................................................................................................................................22 4.5 NSW Freight and Ports Plan 2018-2023 ..................................................................................23 4.6 Wagga Wagga Spatial Plan 2013-2043 ...................................................................................24 4.7 Bomen Employment Land Structure Plan (2018) .....................................................................25 Economic Drivers and Trends ..................................................................................................27 Key Sectors in the Wagga Wagga Economy ............................................................................30 6.1 Health .......................................................................................................................................30 6.2 Education .................................................................................................................................30 6.3 Defence ....................................................................................................................................32 6.4 Industry ....................................................................................................................................33 6.5 Impact of the SAP on Industry ..................................................................................................36 Future Industry Sectors ............................................................................................................37 7.1 Overview ..................................................................................................................................37 7.2 Advanced Manufacturing ..........................................................................................................37 7.1 Food and Agribusiness .............................................................................................................41 7.2 Freight and Logistics ................................................................................................................44 7.3 Renewable Energy ...................................................................................................................47 3 Prospective Business Types ....................................................................................................49 8.1 Overview ..................................................................................................................................49 8.2 Education and Business ...........................................................................................................49 8.3 Advanced Manufacturing ..........................................................................................................49 8.4 Agribusiness .............................................................................................................................52 8.5 Freight and Logistics ................................................................................................................55 8.6 Renewable Energy ...................................................................................................................56 Gannawarra Energy Storage System (GESS) .................................................................................56 Socio-demographic Context .....................................................................................................57 9.1 Population ................................................................................................................................57 9.2 Age Profile ................................................................................................................................58 9.3 Education .................................................................................................................................59 9.4 Historic Employment ................................................................................................................60 9.5 Labour Force Status .................................................................................................................60 9.6 Skills and Occupations of Wagga Wagga LGA Workforce .......................................................61 9.7 Where the Wagga Wagga LGA / SAP Workforce Lives ...........................................................61 9.8 Amenity for the SAP Workforce ................................................................................................62 Projections for Growth in Wagga Wagga LGA .........................................................................63 10.1 Population and Employment Projections ..................................................................................63 10.2 Employment Growth in Bomen .................................................................................................70 10.3 Population and Employment Projections Summary ..................................................................72 Evaluation of Concept Structure Plan Scenarios ......................................................................73 11.1 Overview ..................................................................................................................................73 11.2 Potential Land Use Requirements for the Three Concept Structure Plan Scenarios................73 11.3 Industry Land Use and Potential Land Use Requirements .......................................................80 11.4 Potential Employment Generated by the Three Concept Structure Plan Scenarios .................81 11.5 SWOT Analysis of the Three Concept Structure Plan Scenarios .............................................86 Scenario 4 SWOT ............................................................................................................................86 Scenario 5 SWOT ............................................................................................................................87 Scenario 7 SWOT ............................................................................................................................88 Final Structure Plan ..................................................................................................................89 4 Evaluation of Final Preferred Plan ............................................................................................91 13.1 Overview ..................................................................................................................................91 13.2 Employment Growth in Bomen .................................................................................................91 13.3 Industry Land Use, Potential Land Use Requirements and Demand .......................................92 13.4 Aggregate Supply of New Regional Enterprise Areas ..............................................................93 Employment Attraction .............................................................................................................98