UNIVERSITY OF CALGARY Contested Science in the Global Warming Controversy by Michael C. Zajko A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS DEPARTMENT OF SOCIOLOGY CALGARY, ALBERTA JUNE, 2010 © Michael C. 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ABSTRACT The global warming controversy involves public disagreements over various scientific, political, and moral issues, with significant implications for humanity. Participants in the controversy employ opposing scientific claims concerning the climate, as well as competing definitions of science, and different rhetorical attempts to redraw or close off the boundaries of legitimate debate. Recent developments have also revealed the power of a new online medium in the controversy that has enabled “climate skeptics” to challenge traditional scientific boundaries, and provided the means for all sides to engage with a broader public on the topic. The global warming controversy demonstrates the range of possibilities in the establishment of global warming expertise, as has been constructed by a number of prominent public actors without traditional scientific credentials. However, the discourse of the debate continues to be dominated by problematic conceptions of scientific truth and objectivity, which this work ultimately cautions against. i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This work is greatly indebted to the support and confidence of my supervisor, Augustine Brannigan. I also appreciate the cooperation and assistance of all those who helped me find my feet in this topic, including interview participants, online contacts, and Liza McCoy. I also appreciate the input of my committee, including Cooper H. Langford and the keen eye of Erin Gibbs Van Brunschot. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS Abstract………………………………………………………………………... i Acknowledgements……………………………………………………………. ii Table of Contents……………………………………………………………… iii List of Figures…………………………………………………………………. vii INTRODUCTION……………………………………………………………. 1 Plan of the Proceeding Chapters……………………………………… 5 CHAPTER ONE: A CONSTRUCTIVIST APPROACH TO THE STUDY OF SCIENTIFIC CONTROVERSY………………………………………… 9 An Orthodox View of the Global Warming Controversy……………. 9 The Constructivist Approach to Scientific Fact……………………… 13 Bringing Nature into Sociology……………………………………… 20 Truth, Falsity, and Symmetry………………………………………… 27 Defining Science……………………………………………………… 29 Rhetoric, Discourse, and Reflexivity…………………………………. 31 A Theoretical Summary………………………………………………. 34 Notes…………………………………………………………………... 36 CHAPTER TWO: CONTEXT OF THE GLOBAL WARMING iii CONTROVERSY…………………………………………………………….. 37 The Conjunction of Global Warming Science and Politics.................... 37 Resistance and Counter-Movements in the United States and Canada.. 42 The Friends of Science............................................................................ 44 Countering the Counter-Movement........................................................ 49 Recent Developments in the Global Warming Debate........................... 50 The Context of Recent Global Temperatures......................................... 52 Notes....................................................................................................... 56 CHAPTER THREE: CONTESTED CREDIBILITY AND THE PERFORMANCE OF EXPERTISE IN THE GLOBAL WARMING CONTROVERSY............................................................................................... 58 Scientific Expertise in Environmental Controversies.............................. 59 Dr. Tim Ball – Climatologist................................................................... 63 The Public Performance of Climate Expertise........................................ 71 Al Gore's Inconvenient Truth and the Nature of David Suzuki.............. 79 Christopher Monckton – the “Anti-Gore”.............................................. 86 Reflections on the Public Performance of Expertise............................... 93 Notes....................................................................................................... 96 iv CHAPTER FOUR: THE RHETORIC OF CLOSURE...................................... 98 The IPCC as a Mechanism of Closure in the Global Warming Controversy............................................................................................ 100 Climate Skeptics and the Rhetoric of Closure....................................... 105 Challenging the Climate Consensus...................................................... 106 Uncertainty in Science-for-Policy.......................................................... 111 Closure Despite Uncertainty.................................................................. 113 The Rhetoric of Closure via Demarcation............................................. 119 Implications of the Rhetoric of Closure................................................. 128 Notes...................................................................................................... 131 CHAPTER FIVE: THE INTERNET, CLIMATEGATE, AND SHIFTING BOUNDARIES IN CLIMATE SCIENCE........................................................ 133 Scientific Knowledge and the Internet................................................... 135 The Global Warming Controversy on the Internet................................. 138 Peer-Review as a Contested Boundary in the Global Warming Controversy............................................................................................. 140 The Publication of Soon & Baliunas 2003.............................................. 144 Steve McIntyre’s Climate Audit............................................................. 149 Information Wars in the Global Warming Controversy After 2005....... 155 The Internet as an Agent of Change in Climate Science......................... 163 The Changing Face of the Climate Skeptic Counter-Movement............. 166 v Conclusions Concerning Climategate and its Repercussions................... 168 Notes........................................................................................................ 170 EPILOGUE......................................................................................................... 171 Facts and Values in the Global Warming Controversy........................... 174 What Role for Sociology?....................................................................... 178 REFERENCES................................................................................................... 181 APPENDIX: NOTES REGARDING METHODS............................................ 236 vi LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: A rough model showing the connections through which scientific climate knowledge is transformed and aggregated......................................... 35 Figure 2: The “hockey-stick” graph as featured in the SPM of the IPCC’s TAR in 2001.................................................................................................... 146 Figure 3: Preliminary network analysis of the global warming debate conducted by Profero for Oxfam..................................................................... 156 Figure 4: My own attempt at network mapping, which traces connections between many of the actors mentioned in this study...................................... 157 Figure 5: A chronology of included events..................................................... 163 vii 1 INTRODUCTION There are few social and environmental problems that have been claimed to present a threat as severe as global warming’s potentially catastrophic consequences for our species and the planet. Such claims have been taken up, rhetorically at least, by