Paris, London, July 2015 STATUS REPORT 2015 MYCLE SCHNEIDER CONSULTING PROJECT SCHNEIDER CONSULTING MYCLE A BY Mycle Schneider Antony Froggatt WITH Julie Hazemann Tadahiro Katsuta M.V. Ramana Steve Thomas FOREWORD Jonathon Porritt V4 This page is intentionally left blank The World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2015 By Mycle Schneider Independent Consultant, Paris, France Project Coordinator and Lead Author Antony Froggatt Independent Consultant, London, U.K. Lead Author With Julie Hazemann Director of EnerWebWatch, Paris, France Documentary Research, Modeling and Graphic Design Tadahiro Katsuta Associate Professor, School of Law, Meiji University, Tokyo, Japan Contributing Author M.V. Ramana Nuclear Futures Laboratory & Program on Science and Global Security Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, U.S. Contributing Author Steve Thomas Professor for Energy Policy, Greenwich University, U.K. Contributing Author Foreword by Jonathon Porritt Paris, London, July 2015 © A Mycle Schneider Consulting Project Cover page and layout created by Noëlle Papay This page is intentionally left blank ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The project coordinator wishes to thank Antony Froggatt and Steve Thomas for their creativity and unbeatable reliability in their numerous contributions over many years. Thanks also to the new contributing authors Tadahiro Katsuta and M.V. Ramana who managed to author pertinent sections, limited in size, on issues that would each have justified a book. A special thank you to Jonathon Porritt for his thoughtful and engaged foreword. A big chunk of the success of this project is due to its visibility through the graphic illustrations based on the project database designed and maintained by data engineer Julie Hazemann. Nina Schneider extended meticulous verification to background research that contributed a fair share to the result. Thank you both. Many other people have contributed pieces of work to make this project possible and bring it to the current standard. These include in particular Caroline Peachey, who provided the Nuclear Engineering International nuclear load factor statistics, Shaun Burnie, who contributed invaluable research, Benoît Rozel, who provided terrific support on data management, and Victoria Tardieu, who gave this crucial hint on software interaction. The report has greatly benefitted from partial or full proof-reading, editing suggestions and comments by Amory B. Lovins, Marianne Böller, Shaun Burnie, Tom Clements, Ian Fairlie, Tomas Kaberger, Yves Marignac, Nina Schneider, Sabine von Stockar. and various anonymous reviewers. Thank you all. The authors wish to thank in particular Amory B. Lovins, Matthew McKinzie and Rebecca Harms for their durable and enthusiastic support for this project. And everybody involved is grateful to Natural Resources Defense Council, Heinrich Böll Foundation North America, the Greens-EFA Group in the European Parliament, and the Swiss Renewable Energy Foundation for their generous support for this project. A big thank-you to Philippe Rivière for his reliable work on the website and his generous assistance at any time of the day (or night) as well as to Noëlle Papay who created the special cover page and the new layout for this report. NOTE This report contains a very large amount of factual and numerical data. While we do our utmost to verify and double-check, nobody is perfect. The authors are always grateful for corrections and suggested improvements. LEAD AUTHORS’ CONTACT INFORMATION Mycle Schneider Antony Froggatt 45, allée des deux cèdres 53a Nevill Road 91210 Draveil (Paris) London N16 8SW France United KingdoM Phone: +33-1-69 83 23 79 Ph: +44-79 68 80 52 99 Email: [email protected] E: [email protected] The World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2015 © 2015 Mycle Schneider Consulting (MSC) TABLE OF CONTENTS Foreword .............................................................................................................................................. 9 Executive Summary and Conclusions ....................................................................................... 12 Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 19 General Overview Worldwide ..................................................................................................... 23 Introduction ...................................................................................................................................................................... 23 Overview—The Role of Nuclear Power ................................................................................................................ 23 Operation, Power Generation, Age Distribution ............................................................................................... 26 Construction Times Overview of Current .........................................................................................................................New Build ............................................................................................................................... 32 30 Currently Under Construction Currently Operating Construction Times of Reactors .................................................................. 32 Construction Starts Construction Times ofand Cancellations Past and ..................................................................................... Reactors .................................................................. 34 33 Operating Age ................................................................................................................................... 36 Lifetime Projections ....................................................................................................................... 40 Potential Newcomer Countries ................................................................................................... 42 Under Construction ........................................................................................................................................................ 43 Contracts Signed .............................................................................................................................................................. 46 Generation III ReactorsPlans and Projects ....................................................................................................—Why the Delays and Cost Overruns? ............................................................................................. 55 48 Introduction ...................................................................................................................................................................... 55 What is Generation III+? .............................................................................................................................................. 56 Standardization and Generic Design Reviews .................................................................................................... 58 Causes of construction delays ................................................................................................................................... 58 Experience at Construction Sites ............................................................................................................................. 60 Comparison of the EPR and AP1000 ...................................................................................................................... 64 Advanced Nuclear ReactorsConclusions ....................................................................................................—The Story of the SMR .................................................................................................................................. 68 64 History ................................................................................................................................................................................. 68 United States ..................................................................................................................................................................... 69 Russia ................................................................................................................................................................................... 72 South Korea ....................................................................................................................................................................... 73 China ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 74 India ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 75 Argentina ............................................................................................................................................................................ 76 Fukushima—A Status Report Conclusion ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 78 76 Onsite challenges ...........................................................................................................................................................