Presents Non-kinetic warfare in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict Vahan Dilanyan & Vilen Khlgatyan Overview of Karabakh conflict • Karabakh & Nakhichevan placed inside Azerbaijan SSR in 1921 by Stalin (Commissar of Nationalities) • NK Autonomous Region created 1923 • Majority Armenian population in both • Azerification policy • Perestroika & Glasnost lead to Armenian desire for reunion with Armenian SSR Overview Cont’d • Aug. 1987 Karabakh Armenians send petition to rejoin Armenian SSR • Feb. 20th, 1988 Regional Soviet in Stepanakert votes to transfer NK to Armenian SSR • Next day mass demonstrations in favor of reunion begins in Yerevan • Feb. 27-29, anti-Armenian pogroms in Sumgait • July 18, Supreme Soviet in Moscow refuses Overview Cont’d • Jan. 13-15 anti-Armenian pogroms in Baku • Nov. 26, 1991 Baku abolished status of NKAO • Dec. 10, Karabakh Armenians declare independent state (Artsakh) • Feb. 25–26, 1992, Khojali Massacre • March, CSCE (later OSCE) Minsk Conference for NK proposed, Minsk Group formed • May 12, 1994 ceasefire signed via Russian mediation • March 23, 1995 Mandate for OSCE co-chairman states issued (only authorized mediating body) Forms of non- kinetic warfare • Information To alter an opponent's and third parties’ opinions and • Political actions in favor of your state's interests without • Psychological utilizing military power. Information Warfare • A concept involving the use and management of information technology (IT) in pursuit of a competitive advantage over an opponent • May involve collection of – tactical information – assurances that one's own information is valid – spreading of propaganda or disinformation to demoralize or manipulate the enemy & public – undermining the quality of opposing force information – denial of information-collection opportunities to opposing forces Political Warfare • Use of political means to compel an opponent to do one's will, based on hostile intent • Calculated interaction between a government & target audience to include another state's government, military, and/or general population • The core facet being the use of words, images and ideas Psychological Warfare • “The planned use of propaganda and other psychological actions having the primary purpose of influencing the opinions, emotions, attitudes, and behavior of hostile foreign groups in such a way as to support the achievement of national objectives.” – DoD Azerbaijan’s non-kinetic warfare • Ramil Safarov • Cyber attacks on Armenian government sites • Haydar Aliyev foundation/ HA statues • Islamic & Turkic card (pan-Turkism) • Arms race = concessions during negotiations • Khojali “genocide” resolutions in U.S. + the buying of influence with think tanks Grey Propaganda - Khojali "Genocide" Grey Propaganda - Khojali "Genocide" Grey Propaganda - Khojali "Genocide" Grey Propaganda - Khojali "Genocide" Karabakh & Armenia’s non-kinetic warfare • Talysh radio broadcasts • The use of Armenian terms instead of foreign terms • Azerbaijanis = Turks (ultimate other) • De jure recognition Predictions • No war unless Baku 100% certain of victory • Or domestic political situation boils over • Russia is likely to hold the key (more so than any other state) • A solution will be found during this century Special Thanks The Institute of Kosciuszko World Politics Chair.