THE JAMESTOWN FOUNDATION AUGUST 15, 2016 VOLUME XV, ISSUE 16 p.1 p.3 p.6 p.8 Alexander Sehmer Nicholas A. Heras Animesh Roul Zachary Abuza BRIEFS De-escalation Deal Al-Qaeda’s Quiet The Uighurs and China’s Means Tricky Transi- Resurgence in India Regional Counter-Ter- tion for Southern Syria rorism Efforts Rebels IRAQ: POLITICAL DIFFERENCES AND OUTSIDE IN- The Hashd al-Shaabi (PMU, Popular Mobilization Units) FLUENCES — a collection of predominantly Shia militias formed in 2014, though not all of them are in fact Shia — have Alexander Sehmer proved to be an important and effective player in the battle against IS, but have become increasingly difficult As Iraq moves into the next stage of its campaign for the government to control. Nonetheless, the organi- against Islamic State (IS), political rivalries, sectarian divi- zation appears likely to remain a fixture of the Iraqi secu- sions and the outside influence of regional players are rity landscape. Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi has ruled conspiring to hamper efforts to tackle the terrorist out dissolving the PMUs, a demand made by Shia cleric group. Muqtada al-Sadr who wants the more “disciplined” PMU fighters to be absorbed into the Iraqi army (al- Backed by air strikes, Iraqi forces have begun moving in Jazeera, August 5). In truth, al-Sadr’s concern over the on IS fighters in Tal Afar, the final IS stronghold in north- PMUs may come from the fact that they include a num- ern Iraq’s Nineveh governorate (Twitter, August 7; Iraqi ber of his own political rivals. News, August 7). This is the next phase of the battle following the July 10 liberation of Mosul. Despite that Having previously fought IS on the outskirts of Tal Afar, victory, there is still a long way to go. the Shia militias were warned not to enter the town, but now it appears that PMU fighters will take part in the Three years under IS rule and a massive military opera- new offensive (Anadolu, July 29). That will set the stage tion to recapture the city have left Mosul in ruins. Hun- for disagreements between Iran — Iran sponsors a dreds of thousands of people have been displaced, and number of the PMU militias and would be pleased to with years of rebuilding ahead, few are ready to return see them take Tal Afar — and Turkey, which sees itself as home (Rudaw, August 9). At the same time, both Iraqi the protector of Sunni Turkmen living in the city and forces and the Shia militias that aided in the liberation of fears that there will be sectarian reprisals similar to the Mosul have been accused of carrying out abuses in the abuses reported in Mosul. city (Baghdad Post, August 7; Rudaw, July 20). 1 Meanwhile, Iraq’s Sunni politicians are also struggling to SOMALIA: MOGADISHU UNDER PRESSURE find common ground. Rival reconciliation meetings, in- cluding a conference organized by parliamentary speak- Alexander Sehmer er Salim al-Jabouri, have failed to get off the ground (New Arab, July 13). Those disagreements are likely ex- Mogadishu has seen an increase in attacks in recent acerbated by the diplomatic spat between Saudi Arabia months, and the withdrawal of African Union troops and Qatar, since both Gulf States back various Iraqi from a nearby town has piled on the pressure in Soma- Sunni parties, with al-Jabouri thought be favored by lia’s capital. Qatar (al-Monitor, June 11). One person was killed and several others injured when a All told, the region’s troublesome politics risk hampering car bomb exploded near a hospital on the main Maka the next stage of the battle against IS, to say nothing of al-Mkarramah road on August 4 (Somali Update, August the Iraqi government’s efforts to rebuild communities in 4). A bombing on the same stretch of road, orchestrated areas that have suffered terribly under the terrorist by al-Shabaab less than a week earlier, killed at least five group. people and injured several others (Garowe Online, July 30). In a separate incident, just hours after the August 4 blast, al-Shabaab gunmen in the capital shot and killed Mohamed Ali Elmi, the provincial governor of the Gal- gadud region, along with his brother (All Africa, August 8). Elmi was reportedly in Mogadishu visiting relatives. Residents of Somali capital are on edge — bodyguards for one Somali politician mistakenly shot dead two civil- ians during a demonstration by motorcycle taxi drivers on August 7 (Radio Dalsan, August 7). Away from the capital, militants re-took the town of Lego in the Lower Shabelle region on August 4, after Ugandan troops with the African Union mission in Soma- lia (AMISOM) withdrew from their base there. The area is a prize for al-Shabaab, their fighters having staged a major attack on the base in 2015 (al-Jazeera, June 26, 2015). Situated on a major road about 100 kilometers (km) northwest of the capital, having Lego in the hands of the militants reduces transport options into Mo- gadishu. Reports indicate that the militants arrived with- in minutes of the AMISOM convoys moving out (De- fence Web, August 4). Mogadishu is coming under pressure. Victories such as the recent killing in a drone strike of al-Shabaab com- mander Ali Mohamed Hussein (a.k.a. Ali Jabal), who was responsible for coordinating many attacks on the Somali capital, provide relatively little relief (Mareeg, July 31). AMISOM troops are expected to start drawing down next year, and it is doubtful that Somali forces will be ready to take up the slack. Despite the successes of the U.S.-trained Gashaan counter-terrorism force, the Somali National Army (SNA) lacks cohesion and seems ill- equipped to cope. 2 The same regional divides that beset the SNA are also a De-escalation Deal Means major hurdle for Somalia as it attempts to combat al- Tricky Transition for Southern Shabaab, though there have been some small success- es. In July, the United Nations heralded joint police pa- Syria Rebels trols in Gaalkayo, where the city’s administration is di- vided between Puntland and Galmudung, states that Nicholas A. Heras have frequently clashed. In early July, the United States, Russia and Jordan The joint patrols are part of a ceasefire agreement agreed to support a “de-escalation zone” in the south- signed on January 1, and their main purpose will be to western Syrian governorates of al-Quneitra, Daraa and ensure the continuation of that deal. Perhaps in an indi- part of the governorate of Suwayda (TASS, July 31; Hur- cation of how effective such coordination can be, it was riyet, July 22). The de-escalation zone agreement was a joint operation by Puntland and Galmudug security the product of a separate but related diplomatic process forces in Gaalkayo last month that resulted in the cap- to the ongoing Astana and Geneva negotiations that are ture of al-Shabaab commander Abdirsak Hussein Tahlil seeking to achieve a mechanism for a sustainable cease- (All Africa, July 25). fire and political framework to end the Syrian civil war (Hurriyet, August 8; Hal.net [Daraa], July 18; TASS, July 10). A key component of the southwestern Syria de-escala- tion zone agreement, which is being made in consulta- tion with Israel, is an understanding that the armed op- position movement in southern Syria — specifically the Southern Front coalition — will transform from an anti- government force to a local security force for opposi- tion-controlled areas. It is expected that it will conduct counterterrorism operations and provide security for the Israeli and Jordanian borders (Haaretz August 9; al- Watan, July 30). [1] Border Security Fears To date, the exact contours of the de-escalation zone agreement in southern Syria remain unclear. However, representatives of the Syrian opposition expect that Russia will be responsible for guaranteeing that forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad adhere to the ceasefire, and that it will prevent Lebanese Hezbollah and foreign Shia militias mobilized by Iran’s Islamic Rev- olutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) from being deployed in the de-escalation zone. Meanwhile, the United States and Jordan, in consultation with Israel, are reportedly responsible for ensuring the compliance of the armed opposition with the ceasefire, and for reorganizing the Southern Front coalition into a force that is less threat- ening to Bashar al-Assad (The National, July 10; al-Ghad [Amman], July 10). [2] 3 Disagreements over the future of the armed opposition’s Daraa, in an area that borders Jordan’s northern Irbid battle against al-Assad, and the desire of the United governorate. States, Jordan and Israel to draw down the conflict in southwestern Syria, are major points of contention be- A major source of tension between the United States tween the Southern Front and its foreign backers (Enab and the southern Syrian armed opposition has been the Baladi, August 8; al-Baladi News [Daraa], July 15; al- inability of the Southern Front over the past year and a Monitor, July 14). half to mount an effective campaign to defeat JKW (SMART News Agency [Daraa], July 5; al-Quds al-Arabi, In particular, the Israeli government has voiced strong June 9). This ineffectiveness is the result of a variety of public skepticism about the de-escalation zone agree- factors, particularly tribal, clan and family ties between ment over the question of whether Lebanese Hezbollah JKW fighters and Southern Front affiliates, which would and IRGC-mobilized Shia militias would still be able to require the armed opposition forces to pay diya (blood operate near the Israeli side of the Golan Heights money) to the families of slain JKW fighters, money that (Haaretz, August 9; Times of Israel, July 16; Haaretz, its foreign backers have not provided.