MOSCOW’S SPACE STRATEGY IN A CHANGING GLOBAL CONTEXT A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF SOCIAL SCIENCES OF MIDDLE EAST TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY BY OLGU ATÇI IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE IN THE PROGRAM OF EURASIAN STUDIES JANUARY 2021 Approval of the thesis: MOSCOW’S SPACE STRATEGY IN A CHANGING GLOBAL CONTEXT submitted by OLGU ATÇI in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Eurasian Studies, the Graduate School of Social Sciences of Middle East Technical University by, Prof. Dr. Yaşar KONDAKÇI Dean Graduate School of Social Sciences Assoc. Prof. Dr. Işık Kuşcu BONNENFANT Head of Department Department of Eurasian Studies Prof. Dr. Oktay F. TANRISEVER Supervisor Department of International Relations Examining Committee Assoc. Prof. Dr. Burak TANGÖR (Head of the Examining Committee) Hacettepe University Department of International Relations Prof. Dr. Oktay F. TANRISEVER (Supervisor) Middle East Technical University Department of International Relations Assoc. Prof. Dr. Zerrin TORUN Middle East Technical University Department of International Relations PLAGIARISM I hereby declare that all information in this document has been obtained and presented by academic rules and ethical conduct. I also state that, as required by these rules and conduct, I had thoroughly cited and referenced all material and results that are not original to this work. Name, Last name: Olgu Atçı Signature: iii ABSTRACT MOSCOW’S SPACE STRATEGY IN A CHANGING GLOBAL CONTEXT Atçı, Olgu M. Sc., Program in Eurasian Studies Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Oktay F. Tanrısever January 2021, 127 pages This thesis aims to study the Moscow’s perspective in space ventures in the Cold War and following the post-Soviet era by focusing on the change of global context in the goals and priorities of space activities. This thesis also focuses on exploring the trends and technological developments in field of space in other countries and evaluates the course of events in terms of political and economic factors that shapes the Moscow’s space strategy. This thesis argues that, Moscow was able to save a significant portion of the space industry assets from the Soviet Union. However, in comparison to United States and China, low funding of space industry in Russia and the lack of both commercial and scientific-technical ambitious tasks leads the erosion of Moscow’s space power position in international arena and commercial attractiveness in the growing global space market. Keywords: Russian Federation, Space Race, United States, space industry, commercial space enterprises iv ÖZ DEĞİŞEN KÜRESEL BAĞLAMDA RUSYA’NIN UZAY STRATEJİSİ Atçı, Olgu Yüksek Lisans, Avrasya Çalışmaları Bölümü Tez Yöneticisi: Prof. Dr. Oktay F. Tanrısever Ocak 2021, 127 sayfa Bu tez, Soğuk Savaş dönemindeki uzay girişimlerinde ve Sovyetler Birliği’nin dağılmasının ardındaki dönemde, uzay faaliyetlerinin amaç ve önceliklerindeki küresel bağlamdaki değişime odaklanarak Moskova’nın uzay çalışmalarına yaklaşımını incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Bu tez, diğer ülkelerde uzay alanındaki eğilimleri ve teknolojik geliştirmeleri de araştırmaya odaklanıyor ve olayların seyrini Moskova’nın uzay stratejisini şekillendiren politik ve ekonomik faktörler açısından değerlendiriyor. Bu tez, Moskova’nın Sovyetler Birliği’nin kurmuş olduğu uzay endüstrisinin önemli bir bölümünü kurtarabildiğini iddia etmektedir. Bununla birlikte, Amerika Birleşik Devletleri ve Çin ile karşılaştırıldığında, Rusya’da uzay endüstrisinin yetersiz finansmanı, hem ticari hem de bilimsel açıdan iddialı uzay görevlerinin eksikliği, Moskova’nın uluslararası arenadaki uzay gücü konumunun ve küresel uzay gücü konumunun ve gelişen küresel uzay pazarındaki rekabetçiliğinin azaldığı fikrine ulaşılmıştır. Anahtar kelimeler: Rusya Federasyonu, Uzay Yarışı, Amerika Birleşik Devletleri, uzay endüstrisi, ticari uzay girişimleri v ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would like to thank you my supervisor Prof. Dr. Oktay F. TANRISEVER for his guidance and encouragement throughout the development of this thesis. DEDICATION vi To My Parents vii TABLE OF CONTENTS PLAGIARISM ........................................................................................................................ iii ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................................ iv ÖZ............................................................................................................................................. v ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ....................................................................................................... vi DEDICATION ........................................................................................................................ vi TABLE OF CONTENTS ...................................................................................................... viii LIST OF TABLES .................................................................................................................. xi LIST OF FIGURES ................................................................................................................ xii CHAPTERS 1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................ 1 1.1. Scope and Objective ................................................................................................. 1 1.2. Literature Review ..................................................................................................... 2 1.3. Argument .................................................................................................................. 4 1.4. Theoretical Framework and Methodology ............................................................... 8 1.5. Organization of The Thesis ...................................................................................... 9 2. INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS AND POLITICS OF OUTER SPACE ...................... 12 3. HISTORICAL EVOLUTION OF SPACE POLICY ......................................................... 17 3.1. Historical Background ............................................................................................ 17 3.2. Cosmic Ideas in Popular Culture ............................................................................ 22 3.3. Russian Space Studies ............................................................................................ 24 3.4. Political Significance of The Space Ventures ........................................................ 29 viii 3.4.1. National Pride ................................................................................................ 29 3.4.2. Strategic Interests ........................................................................................... 31 3.4.3. Political Benefits ............................................................................................ 33 4. SPACE RACE DURING COLD WAR PERIOD ............................................................. 37 4.1. “Golden Age” of Space Initiatives ......................................................................... 37 4.1.1. Formation of the Soviet Space Program ........................................................ 37 4.1.2. Early Soviet Achievements ............................................................................ 39 4.1.3. US Reactions .................................................................................................. 41 4.1.4. Moon Expeditions .......................................................................................... 43 4.2. The Crisis of the Soviet Space Program ................................................................ 45 4.3. Limits Imposed by Treaties and Principles ............................................................ 46 4.4. Cooperation in Space ............................................................................................. 49 5. CHARACTERISTICS OF RUSSIAN SPACE POLICY IN THE POST-SOVIET TRANSITION PERIOD ........................................................................................................ 54 6. EXPANSION OF SPACE ACTIVITIES IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY ........... 58 6.1. International Space Station (ISS) ........................................................................... 58 6.2. New Contenders in Space Ventures ....................................................................... 60 6.3. Economic Use of Outer Space ............................................................................... 64 6.3.1. Definition of Space Economy ........................................................................ 64 6.3.2. Evolution of Space Economy ......................................................................... 66 6.4. Development of Commercial Space Industry ........................................................ 69 6.5. Characteristics of Russian Space Policy in the Twenty-First Century ................... 72 7. SPACE STRATEGIES OF OTHER GLOBAL ACTORS ................................................ 78 7.1. China ...................................................................................................................... 78 7.1.1. National Space Policy .................................................................................... 78 ix 7.1.2. Commercial and Economic Aspects ............................................................... 80 7.1.3. Military Capabilities ......................................................................................