CRISIS AT THE SALTON SEA The VitAl Role of Science ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The Salton Sea Task Force received support from the Universi- ty of California, Riverside, and the EDGE Institute. We benefit- ed from discussion with Doug Brown and William Ota from the Center for Science 2 Policy. Assemblymember Eduardo Garcia and consultant Keith Ciolino met with the Task Force and pro- vided helpful advice on direction. We thank our reviewers: Edward Avol Professor of Clinical California Preventative Medicine, Mike McNamara University of Southern CalEnergy California Tina Treude Michael Cohen Professor of Marine Senior Researcher, Geomicrobiology, Pacific Institute University of California, Shohreh Farzan Los Angeles Assistant Professor of Jon Trujillo Preventative Medicine, CalEnergy University of Southern Scott Tyler California Foundation Professor, Stuart Hurlbert University of Nevada, Professor Emeritus, San Reno Diego State University Earl Withycombe Jill Johnston CalEPA, Assistant Professor of Health and Exposure Preventative Medicine, Assessment Branch, University of Southern California Air A special reportSHOREBIRDS prepared FORAGING for near policymakers North Shore Yacht Club.and Jonathan stakeholders Nye by the UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA RIVERSIDE SALTON SEA TASK FORCE JUNE 2021 Sponsored by the EDGE Institute and the Center for Science to Policy at SALTON SEA TASK FORCE CHAIR Marilyn Fogel Distinguished Professor Emerita of Geoecology Department of Earth and Planeary Sciences, College of Natural and Agricultural Sciences Director of the Environmental Dynamics and GeoEcology (EDGE) Institute SENIOR MEMBERS ASSOCIATE MEMBERS Hoori Ajami Caroline Hung Assistant Professor of Groundwater Hydrology PhD Candidate Department of Environmental Sciences Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences College of Natural and Agricultural Sciences College of Natural and Agricultural Sciences Emma Aronson Jonathan Nye Associate Professor of Environmental Microbiology Postdoctoral Scholar, EDGE Institute Department of Microbiology and Plant Pathology Science to Policy Graduate College of Natural and Agricultural Sciences College of Natural and Agricultural Sciences Roya Bahreini Associate Professor of Atmospheric Science GUEST CONTRIBUTORS Department of Environmental Sciences Diana Del Castillo College of Natural and Agricultural Sciences Division of Biomedical Sciences, School of Medicine Wilfred Elders Somiya Maheshwari Professor Emeritus of Geology Division of Biomedical Sciences, School of Medicine Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences College of Natural and Agricultural Sciences SCIENCE TO POLICY ADVISORS Darrel Jenerette Doug Brown Professor of Landscape Ecology Associate Director, Center for Science to Policy Department of Botany and Plant Sciences College of Natural and Agricultural Sciences Susan Hackwood Director, Center for Science to Policy David Lo Distinguished Professor of Biomedical Sciences Stephanie Piper Senior Associate Dean of Research Student Cabinet Member, Center for Science to Policy Division of Biomedical Sciences, School of Medicine Timothy Lyons LEGISLATIVE SUPPORT Distinguished Professor of Biogeochemistry Kathy Eiler Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences Director of Federal Relations College of Natural and Agricultural Sciences Juan Herrera Michael McKibben Associate Director for Advocacy and Associate Professor of Geology Institutional Relations Chair, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences College of Natural and Agricultural Sciences Elizabeth Romero Assistant Vice Chancellor of Governmental & William Porter Community Relations Assistant Professor of Atmospheric Dynamics and Modeling, Department of Environmental Sciences ADMINISTRATIVE SUPPORT College of Natural and Agricultural Sciences Theresa Kane Arun Raju EDGE Institute (since July 2020) Associate Research Engineer Center for Environmental Research and Technology, Jeanette Westbrook Bourns College of Engineering EDGE Institute (prior to July 2020) Kurt Schwabe EDITORIAL SERVICES Professor of Environmental Economics & Policy Associate Dean and Chair, School of Public Policy Sarah Simpson ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The Salton Sea Task Force received support from the Universi- ty of California, Riverside, and the EDGE Institute. We benefted from discussion with Doug Brown and William Ota from the Cen- ter for Science 2 Policy. Assemblymember Eduardo Garcia and consultant Keith Ciolino met with the Task Force and provided helpful advice on direction. We thank our reviewers: Edward Avol Mike McNamara Professor of Clinical CalEnergy Preventative Medicine, Tina Treude University of Southern Professor of Marine California Geomicrobiology, Michael Cohen University of California, Senior Researcher, Los Angeles Pacifc Institute Jon Trujillo Shohreh Farzan CalEnergy Assistant Professor of Scott Tyler Preventative Medicine, Foundation Professor, University of Southern University of Nevada, California Reno Stuart Hurlbert Earl Withycombe Professor Emeritus, San California Environmental Diego State University Protection Agency, Jill Johnston Health and Exposure Assistant Professor of Assessment Branch, Preventative Medicine, California Air University of Southern Resources Board California Research Division SHOREBIRDS FORAGING near North Shore Yacht Club. Jonathan Nye CRISIS AT THE SALTON SEA The Vital Role of Science EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The VitAl Role of Science in a Successful Salton Sea Policy he Salton Sea, a hypersaline lake in southern California, is in crisis. A combination of mismanagement and competition among federal, state and local agencies has stalled T efforts to address declining lake levels and unstable water chemistry. This delay has height- ened the public health threat to regional communities as retreating shorelines expose dry lakebed— a source of potentially toxic dust—while aquatic ecosystems face collapse due to rising salinity and oxygen loss. Although state agencies are making efforts to mitigate the problems, the scientifc assumptions informing current management practices are outdated or lacking entirely, making outcomes unpredictable at best. THE ABSENCE OF AN ADAPTIVE, SCIENCE-BASED approach as usual, where lake levels continue to decline without to addressing the environmental and human health chal- intervention, (2) stabilization, where enough water is lenges at the Salton Sea prompted UC Riverside’s Envi- directed to the Sea to slow the decline and potentially ronmental Dynamics and GeoEcology (EDGE) Institute and stabilize lake levels at a level lower than it is today, and Science to Policy Center to launch an independent Salton (3) recovery, where enough water is brought in from the Sea Task Force to identify critical scientifc research ocean or local freshwater sources to stabilize, and possi- necessary to guide policymakers in making decisions bly increase, lake levels. about the region’s future. As an interdisciplinary group Based on our array of frst-hand research experience of scientists, engineers medical experts, and economists, at the Salton Sea, we identifed substantial challenges we considered three potential, realistic scenarios fac- and opportunities in seven interconnected areas: water ing the Salton Sea over the coming decade: (1) business policy, watershed hydrology, water chemistry, air quality, 2 Salton Sea Task Force The Vital Role of Science CRISIS AT THE SALTON SEA Effectiveness FIRST CONSIDER EFFECTIVENESS, which measures how successfully a plan achieves its desired results. We can set a lower bound for the effectiveness of current Salton Sea policies by asking two simple questions: Will air quality improve? Will there be critical habitat for birds? The Salton Sea Management Program, led by a con- sortium of state agencies, aims to achieve its desired outcomes by constructing 30,000 acres of bird habitat and dust suppression projects by 2028. Progress has been slow, however, with only 755 acres completed by the end of 2020 (SSMP, 2021). Potential outcomes of these efforts are highly uncertain. Plans to limit air pollution rely largely on limiting acreage of exposed lakebed, or playa. Yet the acreage of exposed playa will depend on the Sea’s volume, which in turn depends on regional wa- ter policy (Chapter 1) and complex interactions between surface water and groundwater, a factor that has been overlooked until recently (Chapter 2). Air quality, too, is a function not only of water availability but also of the chemistry and biology of the lake itself, which is chang- ing rapidly as water volume diminishes (Chapters 3, 4, 5). The degree to which restoration efforts will produce viable bird habitats is similarly uncertain (Chapter 5). The AIR QUALITY monitoring equipment: dust that sticks to marbles can be analyzed later in the lab. Emma Aronson characteristics of restored wetland habitat will depend on the intersection of water quantity, water quality, and other inputs, such as food sources for birds. Yet, as this ecology, human health, and geothermal resources. This report demonstrates, we are proceeding with a lack of report devotes a chapter to each of these areas of con- understanding of the Sea’s water quantity (Chapters 1 cern and provides specifc suggestions for research tasks and 2) and water quality (Chapter 3) dynamics. In short, that would provide the necessary clarity to evaluate out- whether planned wetland projects will provide the min- comes of current Salton Sea management policies and imum range of ecosystem functions required to support help make necessary adjustments moving forward. specifc bird species