Isabel Vogel for the UK Department of International Development Review of the use of ‘Theory of Change’ in international development Review Report Isabel Vogel, April 2012 www.isabelvogel.co.uk 0 This report was commissioned by the UK Department for International Development (DFID) and authored by Isabel Vogel, an independent consultant. The views expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of DFID. Authored by Isabel Vogel, April 2012 Please send comments and feedback to: [email protected] 1 Contents Acronyms and abbreviations ............................................................................................................................... 2 Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................................................. 2 1. Executive Summary ......................................................................................................................................... 3 Key messages from the review ........................................................................................................................ 3 Review findings ................................................................................................................................................ 5 Scope of the review ......................................................................................................................................... 6 Structure of the report .................................................................................................................................... 6 2. Who is using theory of change in international development? ...................................................................... 8 What is ‘theory of change’? ............................................................................................................................ 9 Where does theory of change come from? A brief history ............................................................................. 9 Anticipated benefits of working with theory of change in programmes ...................................................... 11 3. What is theory of change in practice? ........................................................................................................... 14 What are the core concepts of theory of change as it is currently used? ..................................................... 14 Types of ‘theories of change’ ........................................................................................................................ 16 Variations in theories of change ................................................................................................................ 17 How is theory of change thinking different from the log-frame? ................................................................. 19 Is there room for both log-frames and theory of change? ....................................................................... 20 When and how to develop theory of change thinking .................................................................................. 21 What is less clear – assumptions ............................................................................................................... 22 Practical suggestions ..................................................................................................................................... 23 Example 1: DFID Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC): Using theory of change thinking to explore the links between road-building and development ..................................................................................................... 25 4. Why are the ‘assumptions’ so important in theory of change thinking? ...................................................... 26 Why are assumptions important? ................................................................................................................. 26 Power and politics in theory of change thinking ....................................................................................... 28 Multiple theories of change ...................................................................................................................... 28 Subjective limits to theories of change ..................................................................................................... 29 Practical suggestions ..................................................................................................................................... 30 Example 2: Accountability Tanzania (AcT): Applying ‘Models of Change’ thinking to understand emergent strategies .................................................................................................................................. 32 0 5. What makes a good quality theory of change process and product - or ‘good enough’? ............................ 33 Quality of the product or the process? ......................................................................................................... 33 Features of quality in theory of change thinking .......................................................................................... 33 Practical suggestions ..................................................................................................................................... 35 Example 3: Irish Aid: Using theory of change thinking to clarify programme strategic thinking by not asking for diagrams ................................................................................................................................... 36 6. How should theory of change thinking be represented? .............................................................................. 37 Key parameters for effective visual representation of theories of change .................................................. 38 Practical suggestions ..................................................................................................................................... 38 Example 4: Trade Mark East Africa: Mapping the ‘missing middle’ in a complex multi-country, multi- implementing agency programme ............................................................................................................ 39 7. How can evidence be used to support a theory of change process? ............................................................ 40 The role of evidence in theory of change thinking ........................................................................................ 40 ‘Pathways Mapping’ ...................................................................................................................................... 41 Practical suggestions ..................................................................................................................................... 42 8. How is theory of change thinking being used for monitoring, evaluation and impact assessment? ........... 43 Conceptualising the change process: impact pathways and cause-effect links ............................................ 43 What is helpful to understand about evaluation concepts of causality and evidence when working with theory of change for programmes? .............................................................................................................. 44 Practical suggestions ..................................................................................................................................... 45 Mapping theory of change to log-frames .................................................................................................. 46 Example 5: AWARD: Tracing empowerment and capacity-building using theory of change thinking for real- time monitoring and evaluation .................................................................................................................... 48 9. How can theory of change thinking help with complex aspects of programmes? ....................................... 49 How theory of change thinking can help ............................................................................................. 50 Donors and funders: working with adaptive management approaches ....................................................... 51 Practical suggestions ..................................................................................................................................... 52 10. How can theory of change thinking be embedded as a support to learning through the project cycle? ... 54 Donors and other funding organisations need to see themselves as ‘in the picture’ at the country level .. 56 Integrating theory of change thinking in ‘light-touch’ ways ......................................................................... 56 Staffing and resourcing for impact planning and learning ............................................................................ 58 Structured programme cycle standards and support ................................................................................... 59 11. Conclusions .................................................................................................................................................. 62 Bibliography ....................................................................................................................................................... 63 Appendix 1: Guidelines and manuals ...............................................................................................................