1 This page intentionally left blank 2 Table of Contents Introduction ............................................................................................................................................... 1 Chapter 1. The Future Operational Environment ............................................................................ 3 Lessons Learned in Assessing the Operational Environment ................................................ 5 Timeless Competitions ..................................................................................................................... 13 Potential Game Changers ................................................................................................................ 17 Advanced Engagement Battlespace and the “Hyperactive Battlefield”.............................. 21 Warfare at the Speed of Thought ................................................................................................... 25 Personalized Warfare ........................................................................................................................ 29 Star Wars 2050 .................................................................................................................................... 31 Chapter 2. Technology Trends ........................................................................................................... 35 Extended Trends Impacting the Future Operational Environment ....................................... 37 Trends in Autonomy .......................................................................................................................... 43 Artificial Intelligence (AI) Trends ................................................................................................... 47 An Appropriate Level of Trust… .................................................................................................... 53 Influence at Machine Speed: The Coming of AI-Powered Propaganda ............................... 57 Robotic Trends ................................................................................................................................... 61 The Multi-Domain “Dragoon” Squad: A Hyper-enabled Combat System ........................... 67 Russian Ground Battlefield Robots: A Candid Evaluation and Ways Forward................. 73 Quantum Surprise on the Battlefield? .......................................................................................... 81 Speed, Scope, and Convergence Trends .................................................................................... 85 Integrated Sensors: The Critical Element in Future Complex Environment Warfare ...... 89 Chapter 3. Innovation ............................................................................................................................ 93 Fundamental Questions Affecting Army Modernization ......................................................... 95 Building Future Ready Organizations ........................................................................................ 101 Four Elements for Future Innovation .......................................................................................... 105 Prototype Warfare ............................................................................................................................ 111 Mission Engineering and Prototype Warfare: Operationalizing Technology Faster to Stay Ahead of the Threat ............................................................................................................... 115 China’s Drive for Innovation Dominance ................................................................................... 123 i Chapter 4. Edge Cases ....................................................................................................................... 127 The Technological Information Landscape: Realities on the Horizon ................................ 129 Battle of the Brain ............................................................................................................................ 135 The Classified Mind – The Cyber Pearl Harbor of 2034 ......................................................... 139 Virtual Nations: An Emerging Supranational Cyber Trend ................................................... 143 Chapter 5. Conference Findings ...................................................................................................... 147 Bio Convergence and Soldier 2050 Conference Final Report ............................................. 149 Black Swans and Pink Flamingos ............................................................................................... 153 Top Ten Takeaways from the Installations of the Future Conference ............................... 159 Top Ten Takeaways from the Learning in 2050 Conference ................................................ 163 ii Introduction Welcome to the FY18 Mad Scientist Laboratory Anthology! This anthology serves as a sample of futures oriented assessments published in the blog over the last year. The assessments include ideas about the future operational environment, technology trends, innovation, and our conference findings. Each article includes a wealth of links to interesting content including Mad Scientist videos, podcasts, conference proceedings, and presentations. The Mad Scientist Laboratory is an open source, crowdsourced, running estimate of future possibilities and their military implications. There are no facts about the future, but this form of horizon scanning serves to help limit confirmation bias and the bandwagon effect of groupthink with regard to the changing character of future warfare and the convergence of disruptive technologies driving this change. The Mad Scientist Laboratory published 86 assessments in FY18 with 39 submitted by guest bloggers from academia, industry, our Army Labs, think tanks, and our Sister Services. After reading some of these articles, consider subscribing at: http://madsciblog.tradoc.army.mil/ and think about authoring our next guest post. Submit your questions about the Anthology and forward your draft posts to the Mad Scientist group email account: [email protected] Further connect to Mad Scientist by following us on Twitter - @ArmyMadSci Return to the Table of Contents 1 This page intentionally left blank 2 Chapter 1. The Future Operational Environment Lessons Learned in Assessing the Operational Environment Timeless Competitions Potential Game Changers Advanced Engagement Battlespace and the “Hyperactive Battlefield” Warfare at the Speed of Thought Personalized Warfare Star Wars 2050 Return to the Table of Contents 3 This page intentionally left blank 4 Mad Scientist Laboratory Blog Post 25 (1 FEB 18) 25. Lessons Learned in Assessing the Operational Environment (Editor’s Note: The Mad Scientist Laboratory is pleased to present the following guest blog post from Mr. Ian Sullivan.) During the past year, the U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC) G-2 has learned a great deal more about the Future Operational Environment (OE). While the underlying assessment of the OE’s trajectory has not changed, as reported in last year’s The Operational Environment and the Changing Character of Future Warfare, we have learned a number of critical lessons and insights that affect Army doctrine, training, and modernization efforts. These findings have been captured in Assessing the Operational Environment: What We Learned Over the Past Year, published in Small Wars Journal last week. This post extracts and highlights key themes from this article. General Lessons Learned: We have confirmed our previous analysis of trends and factors that are intensifying and accelerating the transformation of the OE. The rapid innovation, development, and fielding of new technologies promises to radically enhance our abilities to live, create, think, and prosper. The accelerated pace of human interaction and widespread connectivity through the Internet of Things (IoT), and the concept of convergence are also factors affecting these trends. Convergence of societal trends and technologies will create new capabilities or societal implications that are greater than the sum of their individual parts, and at times are unexpected. This convergence will embolden global actors to challenge US interests. The perceived waning of US military power in conjunction with the increase in capabilities resulting from our adversaries’ rapid proliferation of technology and increased investment in research and development has set the stage for challengers to pursue interests contrary to America’s. 5 We will face peer, near-peer, and regional hegemons as adversaries, as well as non-state actors motivated by identity, ideology, or interest, and individuals super- empowered by technologies and capabilities once found only among nations. They will directly attack our national will with cyber and sophisticated information operations. Technologies in the future OE will be disruptive, smart, connected, and self-organizing. Key technologies, once thought to be science fiction, present new opportunities for military operations ranging from human operated / machine-assisted, to human- machine hybrid operations, to human-directed / machine-conducted operations; all facilitated by autonomy, Artificial Intelligence (AI), robotics, enhanced human performance, and advanced computing. Tactical Lessons Learned: The tactical lessons we have learned reveal tangible realities found