Government Relations Update Election 2008 Special Edition A Look Behind the Numbers Obama’s win is also notable in that it was truly a national win. In acquir- ing at least 349 electoral votes, the Illinois Senator garnered victories in key states in every region of the country—New England, Mid-Atlantic, South, Midwest, Plains, Mountain West, Southwest, and Northwest. As John Kerry did before him, Senator Obama carried every state in the Northeast. His break- through states, ones he took out of the GOP column from 2004, were Florida, Ohio, Colorado, New Mexico, Virginia, Nevada, and Iowa. As this is written, Obama holds a small lead in North Carolina, a state that went to Bush in 2004. Senator McCain maintains a small lead in Missouri, also a “red” state last time. The 44th President of the United States SENATOR BARACK OBAMA’S solid victo- ry in the 2008 presidential election is historic—an African-American has been elected President of the United States. It is also historic in terms of political history in that his campaign appears to have generated the highest voter turnout in recent memory, based on the percentage of registered voters who came to the polls. Obama 349 McCain 163 Undecided 26 © 2008, BLANK ROME GOVERNMENT RELATIONS LLC. Notice: The purpose of this newsletter is to review the latest developments which are of interest to clients of Blank Rome. The information contained herein is abridged from legislation, court decisions, administrative rulings, and other sources and should not be construed as legal advice or opinion, and is not a substitute for the advice of counsel. Watergate • 600 New Hampshire Ave., NW • Washington, DC 20037 • (202) 772-5800 Election 2008: A Look Behind the Numbers In the end, this election—while campaign in recent weeks and months, it appears likely Obama will claim a hard fought—will likely be viewed mandate to accomplish the following: similar to the way many observers THE ECONOMY—take further steps to create jobs and spur economic growth view the 2004 election. The political through a blend of significant spending and targeted tax breaks. fundamentals were heavily favoring HEALTHCARE—expand government programs for child health care so as to one side and nothing that happened ensure all children have insurance coverage. Enact a health care reform pack- in the general election campaign did age that includes inducements for employers to offer coverage and an expan- anything to reverse that—quite the sive government program to cover other Americans without health insurance. contrary. In 2004, the nation was at war and it was the first Presidential THE WAR IN IRAQ—reach agreement with the Iraqis for an accelerated timetable election since the September 11 ter- for pulling U.S. forces out of Baghdad first and then out of the country alto- rorist attacks. With the economy gether. growing, the President was able to INFRASTRUCTURE—enact a new investment program to improve the nation’s keep voters focused on national and infrastructure. homeland security issues. His oppo- ENERGY—push for greatly expanded incentives for alternative energy develop- nents stumbled out of the starting ment and reach a compromise on offshore drilling and nuclear power. blocks and never fully recovered. In 2008, the GOP candidate was sad- dled with a now unpopular war, a Obama Puts Seven 2004 Red States in the Blue President of his own party with dis- approval ratings at historic lows, and an economy that began the campaign Florida – 27 electoral votes Iowa – 7 electoral votes in a weakened state and ended it in crisis. McCain picked a Vice Ohio – 20 electoral votes Nevada – 5 electoral votes Presidential nominee, Alaska Virginia – 13 electoral votes New Mexico – 5 electoral votes Governor Sarah Palin, who, accord- Colorado – 9 electoral votes ing to most polls, became a lightning rod for controversy and opposition Total: 86 electoral votes and the campaign never settled on a clear narrative. Key questions now are does The 111th Congress President-elect Obama have a man- U.S. SENATE date and, if so, to do what? Given the There has not been this much of a shift in power to one party in the U.S. decisiveness of his victory and Senate since the 1994 Clinton mid-term election when Republicans gained eight Democratic gains in House and seats. With the public placing a great deal of blame on the Republican party for Senate races, it appears clear that the the state of the economy, it was difficult for Republicans to defend the 23 seats Democrats and the new President will they had to protect, while the Democrats only had to defend 12 seats. have a mandate to act. Based Currently, Republicans and Democrats each hold 49 seats, and two on the con- Independent Senators caucus with the Democrats, giving control of the Senate tent to the Democratic party. As expected, the results from the 2008 elections sig- of nificantly increased the Democrats’ majority in the Senate. In the 111th the Congress, Democrats will hold 54 seats to the 40 for the Republicans—a 5-seat gain for the Democrats. There are currently 4 undecided races in Alaska, Minnesota, Georgia, and Oregon. The Democratic margin could grow with the outcome of the undecided races, plus, the two Independents—if they continue to caucus with the Democrats. This is significant because the Democrats now have a wider voting margin that increases their ability to move their legislative agenda, especially with a Democratic President in the White House for the first time in eight years. 2 Election 2008: A Look Behind the Numbers Cloture – The Magic of 60 The Balance of Power: U.S. Senate There has been a great deal of recent speculation as to whether or 54 4 2 40 not the Democrats were going to 111th Congress: Democrat+5 Republican -9 Independent 2 Undecided 4 reach the magical number of 60 seats needed under the Senate rules to cut 49 2 49 off floor debate. In theory, reaching 110th Congress 60 seats would enable Democrats to “invoke cloture.” Cloture is the only Open Seats procedure by which the Senate can With the elevation of Senators Obama and Biden to the White House, vote to place a time limit on consid- there are now two vacated seats in the U.S. Senate. Both seats will be appoint- ed by their respective governors, who are also from the same party. eration of a bill or other matter, and thereby overcome a filibuster mount- ILLINOIS Under Illinois law, Governor Rod Blagojevich, Democrat, could ed by the minority party. In reality, choose someone from either party to ride out the rest of Senator Obama’s while obtaining 60 seats would make term, which will conclude in 2010. Names that have surfaced include: it easier to secure the necessary votes • Emil Jones, President of the Illinois Senate; for cloture, success is not guaranteed • Attorney General Lisa Madigan; for Democratic initiatives because • Tammy Duckworth, former Iraq veteran and Director of the Illinois most Senate votes are not straight Department of Veterans' Affairs; and party-line votes and Senators often chart an independent course from • Congressman Jesse Jackson, Jr., a current member of the U.S. House of their leadership. In the end, the Representatives. Democrats have only a slight chance Governor Blagojevich, who is up for reelection in 2010, is currently deal- to secure 60 Senators and they need ing with his own political imbroglio and has extremely low approval ratings. In to win all the undecided races and the light of this, there is speculation that the Governor would appoint his closest two Independents to continue to competitor in the gubernatorial race, Attorney General Lisa Madigan, to fill caucus with them. Senator Obama’s vacant spot until 2010. DELAWARE The vacancy in Delaware leaves Governor Ruth Ann Minner Surprises (D), with a choice as well. Senator Biden just won his 7th term but will not One might look at the vulnerable serve in the next Congress. It is widely speculated that Senator Biden’s son, Republicans who won their re-elec- Delaware Attorney General Joseph R. “Beau” Biden III, might be a logical tion as the surprise winners in this replacement. However, Beau Biden is a member of the Delaware Army political environment, instead of looking at GOP incumbent losses. It was surprising to see many tradition- New Faces in the Senate ally “red” states, such as North Carolina, Mississippi, Georgia, COLORADO Mark Udall Alaska, and Kentucky, in such hotly contested races. In the end, the incumbents who lost their bid for IDAHO Jim Risch another term include Senator John Sununu (R-NH) and Elizabeth Dole NEBRASKA Mike Johanns (R-NC). The current fate of Senators NEW Ted Stevens (R-AK), Saxby Chambliss Jeanne Shaheen (R-GA), Gordon Smith (R-OR), and HAMPSHIRE Norm Coleman (R-MN) remains NEW MEXICO Tom Udall uncertain—although Stevens, NORTH Chambliss, and Coleman have the Kay Hagan slightest of leads. CAROLINA VIRGINIA Mark Warner 3 Election 2008: A Look Behind the Numbers Leadership and Committee Assignments With the start of a new Congressional session next year, Congressional leadership and committee assignments will be reshuffled. Members of the 111th Congress will be nominating and electing their colleagues for leadership positions. The Democrats are not expected to make any changes to their cur- rent lineup of Majority Leader Harry Reid (NV) and Majority Whip Dick Durbin (IL). There is talk that Senator Chuck Schumer (NY) will stay on to head the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) for another cycle, or possibly recruit Senator Bob Menendez from New Jersey. With the narrow re-election of Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (KY), there is not expected to be a great deal of shift in power with the Republican Senate leadership team.