SOUTH AFRICA AND POLITICAL CHANGE AN ANALYSIS OF SELECTED STUDIES OF SOUTH AFRICAN POLITICS Town VINCENT VICTORCape RAZIS of University A thesis submitted in fulfilment of the · - Tequirements for the Degree <Jf Master Q.f Arts in the F~qtilt:Y of Arts University of Cape Town -----------~~~~ October 1978 The copyright of this thesis vests in the author. No quotation from it or information derived from it is to be published without full acknowledgementTown of the source. The thesis is to be used for private study or non- commercial research purposes only. Cape Published by the University ofof Cape Town (UCT) in terms of the non-exclusive license granted to UCT by the author. University (ii) TO MY MOTHER AND FATHER for being the people they are (iii) ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS In any undertaking of this kind, the writer is indebted to people too numerous to mention, but, as always, there are a few who deserve special acknowledgement. My wife, Nadia, for encouraging, proofreading ·and maintaining my psychic energy at the requisite level. ·My Supervisors, Dr Andrew Prior and Dr Robert Schrire, for being superb helmsmen in a long voyage of academic discovery. Professor John Hampton of the Department of Business Sc.ience, and Professor Anthony de Crespigny of the Department of Political Science, for providing me with the framework within which to work. David Robinson, a true friend who has supported my studies in every way. Dr Ken Segar in England, Dr Lee Napier and Dr Ken Woods in Cape Town for being friends who are always willing to help. Trevor Thomson for being academically stimulating and enthusiastic. Dr Dennis Razis, for being correct about some things, but not all. My former PPE Tutors, Messrs Gosling, Dunbabin and Knight, at St Edmund Hall, Oxford, for helping to develop the necessary scholarly equipment. Finally, I wish to thank my typist for the efficient typing and clear presentation of this thesis. (iv) It is the mark of an educated man to look for precision in each class of things just so far as the nature of the subject allows Aristotle (v) TABLE OF CONTENTS Page No. PART I : INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 The Aims of the Thesis 1 The Nature of the Problem 2 Methods and Assumptions 8 1. 4 The Selected Studies 10 PART II THE SELECTED STUDIES 13 2.1 PIERRE L. VAN DEN BERGHE 13 2 .1.1 Aims, Analytical Concepts & Assumptions 13 2 .1. 2 The Central Theme 15 (2.T:JJ­ The Study of South Africa 16 ~ The Main Id,e1as 20 2 .1. 5 Acquiescence in the System 25 \, ~.1.0 Revolution 29 Extern.al Intervention 37 Instruments of Change ~ 2.1.8.1 Boycott as a Means for Effecting Change 48 2.1.8.2 Withholding of Labour 50 2.1.8.3 Civil Disobedience 50 2.1.8.4 Violent Means 52 2 .1. 9 The Possible-Impact of Pressures 53 Economic Growth & Social Change 56 Conclusion 58 2.2 HERI BERT ADAI'1 63 2.2.1 Introduction 63 (vi) Page No. 2.2.2 Methodology 65 r ~ Key C~mcept : "Pragmatic Racial Oligarchy" 8 2.2.4 Stalled Revolution 74 2. 2 .5 External Pressures OJ) 2.2.6 The Southern African Subsystem 79 2.2.7 Factors for Change. ~ 2.2.7.l' Homelands 86 2.2.7.2 Industrialisation, Economic Growth & Apartheid 2.2.7.3 Divisions Amongst the Elite 2.2.8 A Unifying Black Ideology? 2.2.9 Conclusion 2.3 MICHAEL O'DOWD 103 2.3.1 The Rostovian Model : A Critique 103 2.3.2 The Rostovian Influence : O'Dowd's Key Concepts & Theory of Change 107 2.3.3 Exposition & Assessment of O'Dowd's Theory 109 2.3.4 Some Conclusions on Industrialisation, Economic Growth & Political Change 2.4 RECENT PERSPECTIVES ON SOUTH AFRICAN HISTORY AND POLITICS 128 2.4.1 Analytical Categor:Les. Controversy & Clarification 128 2.4.2 Methodology & Marxism @) 2.4.3 New Perspectives on Race, Industrialisation, Economic Growth & P9litica~ Change, 142 \ '. I . 2.4.3.1 Attitudes Towards Race & Class 143 2.4.3.2 Industrialisation, Economic Growth & Political Chang~ <li6' 2.4.3.3 Evaluation· & Counter Arguments 155 !'- r'\ 2.4.4 Conclusion 164 '· (vii) Page No. PART III : CONCLUSION 167 3.1 Synopsis of Analyses 167 3.2 JConclusions on Conflict & Current P9litical Trends 171 3.3 Attitudes Towards Social Conflict in South ] Africa 177 3.4 The Nature of Change & thel Possible Futures J of South Africa 185 3.4.1 Reasons for Hypothesis on the Nature of Change 195 3.5 Selected Scenarios of the Future 205 Bibliography 217 TABLE I : INCOME DISTRIBUTION IN SOUTH AFRICA 161 TABLE II INCOME DISTRIBUTION IN SOUTH AFRICA 162 P A R T I l PART I INTRODUCTION 1.1 THE AIMS OF THE THESIS To a political scientist the challenge.is irresistible of trying to explain and understand a conflict society which is generally characterised in the world as historically anachronistic, politically untenable, economically wasteful and morally unacceptable. It is common cause that South Africa will change. What are the likely ways in which the conflict will be resolved, and which is most likely? These are the questions to which this thesis will attempt to provide answers : it is an effort to determine, as far as possible, the nature, direction and pace of change in South Africa, as seen by a selected group of recent studies of South African politics. The method will be to test the validity of the respective positions on this and related issues embedded in the selected studies of South African politics. Part II, the major part of the work, therefore, is an examination of the 2 explicit or implicit assumptions and values, the conceptual and theoretical frameworks, the use of evidence, the existence of counter evidence, the omissions, inconsistencies and conclusions of various studies of South.Africa, in order to assess the strengths and weaknesses of each as explanations of the political, social and economic process. In the course of the examination, an alternative analysis of the issues will be presented and defended. A synopsis of the analysis will be given in Part III. This will be used as a means for testing the analyses of the selected studies, before selecting what is valid in all of them in terms of providing possible answers to the questions posed about the resolution of conflict. 1.2 THE NATURE OF THE PROBLEM The immediate difficulty encountered with this subject is the meaning of the concept 'change',_ and it is worth elaborating on what is meant by change at the outset of the thesis. The South African system has certain core characteristics. These are White control of the power structures, institutionalised racial stratification, differential 3 incorporation into the political and economic system, a largely capitalist economy, economic interdependence between racial groups, and an unusual degree of cultural heterogeneity. These factors partially determine the patterned political, social and economic interactions of people in the system. There are two possible ways in which the South African system can change. The first is marginal change, which does not affect the salient features of the system, and the sec9nd is fundamental change, which does affect the core characteristics: These correspond to Talcott Parsons' distinction between change within and change of systems. As Coser points out, ~"even though it may be difficult to pinpoint the exact time at which one social system has been transformed into another, we, can talk of changes of social systems when all major structural relations, basic institutions, and prevailing value systems have been transformed" (Coser, 1967, p.18). For example, it could be argued that the creation of a Cabinet Council which excludes Africans, and in which Indians and Coloureds have a consultative rather than an executive role, is marginal change which does not alter the basic 4 characteristics of the system. Fundamental change, if it were also equitable change, would result in a system in which no South African would be at a disadvantage because of skin colour or ethnic affiliation. The distinction between 'marginal' and 'fundamental' change, and between change 'within' a system or 'of' a system, is natur,ally a relative one, since there is always some sort of ~R c_s>_l),t.-i-nui_t_y_pe_tween--the past, present and future .of a sociaJ.. \~ :y; ,.----·system. Societies do not experience birth and death, except metaphorically, in the saro.e way as biological organisms. Relevant to this is a further distinction between 'purposive' change, which is brought about by overtly political action (the establishment of independent homelands, say, or three parliaments for White, Brown and Indian), and 'non-purposive' change, brought about as a result of, for example,.new technology, or an increase in African birth rates, which are not planned political moves but may nevertheless have a clearly political impact on the system. Since change, even revolutionary change, is a process, it is necessary to define what is meant by the term social or political 'process'. The term is used descriptively by political scientists of various ideological positions. A Marxist would see the historical process as being formed 5 through the tensions generated by the differential access of individuals and groups to scarce resources and power in society. It is an essentially conflict view of society, and according to Marx conflict leads not only to ever changing relations within the existing social structure, but the total social system undergoes transformation through conflict. Easton suggests that "the political process ... is a continuing flux .. of activity among social elements that seek to influence policy. The process conception views social elements as in constant tension or power struggle over policy, and the task of the political scientist is to extricate the various elements for independent study in order to examine the exact role of each.