Emerging Trends in West Asia Regional and Global Implications Emerging Trends in West Asia Regional and Global Implications Editor MEENA SINGH ROY INSTITUTE FOR DEFENCE STUDIES & ANALYSES NEW DELHI PENTAGON PRESS Emerging Trends in West Asia: Regional and Global Implications Meena Singh Roy (Ed) First Published in 2014 Copyright © Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi ISBN 978-81-8274-771-5 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without first obtaining written permission of the copyright owner. Disclaimer: The views expressed in this book are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, or the Government of India. Published by PENTAGON PRESS 206, Peacock Lane, Shahpur Jat, New Delhi-110049 Phones: 011-64706243, 26491568 Telefax: 011-26490600 email: [email protected] website: www.pentagonpress.in Branch: Prime Arcade Office #11 1154 Saifee Street Opp. M.G. Road, Camp Pune-411001 Email: [email protected] In association with Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses No. 1, Development Enclave, New Delhi-110010 Phone: +91-11-26717983 Website: www.idsa.in Printed at Avantika Printers Private Limited. Contents Preface ix Acknowledgements xi About the Editor/Contributors xiii Welcome Address by Director General, IDSA xvii Keynote Address by Shri A.K. Antony xix Special Address by Shri Shiv Shankar Menon xxiii PART I POLITICAL TRANSFORMATION IN WEST ASIA: PROSPECTS FOR PEACE, STABILITY AND PROSPERITY 1. Islamist Politics after the Arab Spring 3 Talmiz Ahmad 2. West Asia in Transitional Period of International Order 26 Ahmed Salem Saleh Al-Wahishi 3. The Future of Political Transformation in West Asia and North Africa 30 Timothy C. Niblock PART II FUTURE OF POLITICAL TRANSFORMATION IN WEST ASIA 4. Potential Strategic Cooperation among Pivotal States in Western Asia in the Light of Current Changes 45 Muhammad Abdul Ghaffar 5. Global Elites and Media in West Asia 56 Atul Aneja 6. Emerging Trends in West Asia: Regional and Global Implications 61 Ahmed A. Saif vi Emerging Trends in West Asia 7. West Asia: The Changing Political and Strategic Environment 84 Amin Saikal PART III WEST ASIA’S SECURITY DYNAMICS-I: ROLE OF EXTRA-REGIONAL POWERS 8. Russia in the Middle East: Battle for Principles? 99 Fyodor Lukyanov 9. US Foreign Policy in the Middle East: Combatting the Realist Resurgence 108 Julie E. Taylor 10. Emerging Trends in West Asia: A Syrian Perspective 113 Waiel Awwad 11. Realpolitik of the ‘Self-Appointed Frontrunner’ for the UNSC Seat 125 P.R. Kumaraswamy PART IV WEST ASIA’S SECURITY DYNAMICS-II: ROLE OF EXTRA-REGIONAL POWERS 12. Security Implications of the “Arab Spring” 141 Efraim Inbar 13. Arab Uprisings as Regional Events with Global Effects: An Iranian Perspective 148 Mohammad Hassan Khani 14. Security Dynamics in West Asia and the Role of Regional Powers: An Egyptian Vision for Gulf Security 157 Adel Soliman PART V INDIA AND THE GULF 15. Reconstructing India-Gulf Relation in the Context of Arab Uprising 163 Girijesh Pant 16. Conflict in WANA Region: Impact on Energy Markets 186 Shebonti Ray Dadwal Contents vii 17. India and the GCC: Prospects for an Enhanced Security Partnership 199 Sami Alfaraj PART VI NUCLEAR ISSUES IN WEST ASIA 18. Nuclear Issues in West Asia: Egyptian Perspective 209 Mahmoud Karem 19. Nuclear Issues in West Asia: An Indian Perspective 222 Rajesh Rajagopalan 20. The Iranian Nuclear Challenge 234 Ephraim Kam 21. US Missile Defence in the Gulf 243 Rajendra Abhyankar and Weston Merrick PART VII ROLE OF ASIA IN EVOLVING SECURITY DYNAMICS AND ARCHITECTURE OF THE GULF REGION 22. Role of Asia in the Evolving Security Dynamics of the Gulf Region 257 Ranjit Gupta 23. India-West Asia Relations: Building Inclusive Partnership in the Future 279 Meena Singh Roy Index 291 Preface Trapped in a political tsunami, the West Asian region has been weathering waves of volatility and instability for the last five years. The political storm that slammed into Tunis in late 2010 gradually engulfed the entire region under the umbrella of ‘Arab Spring’, a journey that has been nothing short of turbulent. Several countries witnessed a street show of public dissatisfaction against existing despotic regimes, paving the way for change. Initial experiments with democracy have altered the strategic landscape in significant ways. Reverberations of the ‘Arab Spring’ have made the region a hub of global attention. As the old political order changes, sectarian clashes in several countries have taken place. The regional rivalries have accentuated. Radical Islamist groups have risen to power in several countries. Another significant dimension of the fluctuating geo-politics is the growing Pan-Asian economic linkage. With the rise of India and China as the economic power houses and the deepening of oil-energy ties between Asia and the Gulf, several Asian nations have developed major stakes in stability in the West Asian region. A key question on every one’s mind is the direction of developments in West Asia and its regional and global implications. The Gulf region is critical for India. It remains India’s largest socio-economic partner and the main source of India’s hydrocarbon imports. Therefore, any developments in the region will inevitably have major implications for India. Given the strategic significance of the region India is working towards exploring new ways of forging strategic cooperation with the West Asian region. The questions are how should India prepare to meet the challenges of instability in the region and what role can it play to safeguard its interests? Against this backdrop, the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses organized the 15thAsian Security Conference on February 13-14, 2013, to stimulate discussion and debate on contemporary socio-economic and political developments in the region. The last such conference on West Asia was held in 2006. The desire to understand the West Asian region from a global perspective has been at the heart of inquiry into this subject. The diverse and rich exchange of information on the subject helped to envision a holistic landscape of the region, with well-defined focus on regional and international repercussions of recent developments. x Emerging Trends in West Asia The present book brings together the papers presented by the international scholars at the conference. The book provides an in-depth assessment of socio- political and strategic trends unfolding in West Asia. The complexities of West Asia have been systematically explored by scholars, diplomats and specialists to advance the understanding of West Asian issues and share Asian perceptions regarding evolving political, economic and security dynamics of the region. The book is expected to inform the reader about West Asia’s political and strategic architecture. It is hoped that this book would contribute to the ongoing debate on the subject and cater to needs of scholars, academicians as well as the policy-makers for more information and analysis of the unfolding situation in the region. Arvind Gupta Director General, Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. Acknowledgements This volume is an outcome of the Asian Security Conference organized by the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses in February, 2013. The aim of the conference was to extract Indian and West Asian perspectives on issues of mutual interest, and augment the understanding of emerging regional and global challenges. First and foremost, I would like to extend my sincere thanks to all the Indian and foreign contributors for giving their worthy insights and adding immense scholarly value to this work. Most of the papers presented during the conference were duly updated by the authors. Compilation of this volume would not have been possible without the unconditional support of my colleagues and administrative staff at IDSA. I am immensely grateful to Dr. Arvind Gupta, Director General IDSA for his wholehearted support while completing the conference proceedings. I take this opportunity to express my gratitude to Brig (Retd) R. Dahiya, Deputy Director General IDSA, and my centre members – Col Rajeev Agrawal, Dr. P.K. Pradhan and Dr. Mahtab Alam Rizvi for their constant support and feedback in organising the event which led to the publication of this volume. Ms. Divya Malhotra deserves a special recognition for her immense help in bringing out this volume. Special thanks are due to copy editors – Mrs Radha Joshi and Dr Kiran Sahni for their timely assistance in refining the volume. I would like to thank Mr. Vivek Kaushik, Associate Editor, IDSA for his support during the finalisation of the manuscript. Views expressed in the book are those of the authors in their individual capacity. Meena Singh Roy About the Editor/Contributors Editor Meena Singh Roy is a Research Fellow and Coordinator of the West Asia Centre at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. She has done her Ph.D. from University of Delhi and has been senior research scholar in the Department of African Studies, Delhi University. Contributors Talmiz Ahmad joined the Indian Foreign Service in 1974 and served as Indian Ambassador to Saudi Arabia (2000-03; 2010-11), Oman (2003-04), and the United Arab Emirates (2007-10). He was also Additional Secretary for International Cooperation in the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas from 2004-06. Ahmed Salem Saleh Al-Wahishi is currently serving as Executive Director of the Yemen Centre of International Affairs. He has served as Chief Representative of the League of Arab States in New Delhi. Atul Aneja is currently the West Asia/Middle East correspondent for The Hindu newspaper and is based in Dubai. He has reported extensively on West Asia from the region for the last 10 years.