THE RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES INSTITUTE OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF TERRITORIES OF RAS ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL CHANGES: FACTS, TRENDS, FORECAST 1 (31) 2014 The journal is published according to the decision of RAS economic institutions’ administration in the North-West Federal District Institute of Economics of Karelian Scientific Centre of RAS (Karelia Republic) G.P. Luzin Institute of Economic Problems of Kola Scientific Centre of RAS (the Murmansk Oblast) Institute of Socio-Economic Development of Territories of RAS (the Vologda Oblast) and according to the decision of the administration of Saint Petersburg State University of Economics and Finance Cherepovets State University (the Vologda Oblast) and RAS institutions of other RF regions Institute of Social and Economic Research of Ufa Science Centre of RAS (Bashkortostan Republic) Institute of Economics of the Ural RAS Department (the Sverdlovsk Oblast) The decision of Presidium of the Higher Attestation Commission of the Russian MES (No.6/6, dated 19.02.2010) the journal is included in the list of leading scientific editions, recommended for publication of the main results of dissertations for the degree of Doctor and Candidate of Sciences. The journal is included into databases: VINITI RAS, Ulrich's Periodicals Directory, Index Copernicus International, EBSCOhost, Proquest, and also into the Russian Science Citation Index, and is presented in the open access on the platform of the Scientific e-Library (http://www. elibrary.ru). Editorial Council: RAS Academician V.L. Makarov (Moscow, Russia) RAS Academician V.V. Ivanter (Moscow, Russia) RAS Academician V.V. Okrepilov (St. Petersburg, Russia) RAS Academician A.I. Tatarkin (Yekaterinburg, Russia) Belarus NAS Academician P.A. Vityaz (Minsk, Belarus) Belarus NAS Academician P.G. Nikitenko (Minsk, Belarus) RAS Corresponding Member V.N. Lazhentsev (Syktyvkar, Russia) Professor J. Sapir (Paris, France) Doctor of Economics, Professor S.D. Valentey (Moscow, Russia) Doctor of Economics, Professor D.A. Gaynanov (Ufa, Russia) Doctor of Economics, Professor A.E. Dayneko (Minsk, Belarus) Doctor of Economics, Professor V.A. Ilyin (Vologda, Russia) Professor M. Kivinen (Helsinki, Finland) Doctor of Sociology, Professor I.V. Kotlyarov (Minsk, Belarus) Doctor of Economics, Professor S.V. Kuznetsov (St. Petersburg, Russia) Doctor of Economics, Professor F.D. Larichkin (Apatity, Russia) Doctor of Economics, Professor I.A. Maksimtsev (St. Petersburg, Russia) Doctor of Technics, Professor A.V. Putilov (Moscow, Russia) Doctor of Technical Sciences Yu.Ya. Chukreev (Syktyvkar, Russia) Doctor of Technics, Professor A.I. Shishkin (Petrozavodsk, Russia) Doctor, Professor Zhang Shuhua (Beijing, China) Professor Wu Enyuan (Beijing, China) Ph.D. in Sociology, Associate Professor D.V. Afanasyev (Cherepovets, Russia) Chief Editor – V.A. Ilyin Editorial Board: Doctor of Economics, Professor L.A. Anosova Doctor of Economics, Professor A.G. Vorobyov, Doctor of Economics, Professor E.S. Gubanova Doctor of Economics K.A. Gulin (Deputy Chief Editor) Ph.D. in Economics K.A. Zadumkin, Ph.D. in Economics G.V. Leonidova Ph.D. in Economics M.F. Sychev (Deputy Chief Editor) Ph.D. in Philology O.V. Tretyakova (Deputy Chief Editor, Executive Editor) Ph.D. in Economics S.V. Terebova Doctor of Economics T.V. Uskova, Doctor of Economics A.A. Shabunova Opinions presented in the articles can differ from the editorial board’s point of view. Authors of the articles are responsible for the material selected and stated. ISSN 2307-0331 © ISEDT RAS, 2014 Internet address: http://esc.vscc.ac.ru CONTENT FROM THE CHIEF EDITOR Ilyin V.А. Time factor ....................................................................................................... 5 Public opinion monitoring of the state of the Russian society ............................................. 9 DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY Minakir P.A. On the key tasks of Russia’s economic development (following the Address of the RF President to the Federal Assembly) ................................................. 18 Lapin N.I. On the strategy of integrated modernization .................................................. 22 Zalkind L.O., Toropushina E.E. Participation of the state in the economic development of Russia’s Arctic: privatization (historical aspect) ......................................... 30 THEORETICAL ISSUES Leonidova G.V. Intellectual potential of population: theoretical and methodological framework for research .................................................................................. 43 BRANCH-WISE ECONOMY Berkovich M.I., Komarova E.A. Branch analysis in the context of evolutionary development of economic systems ................................................................. 59 Biyev A.A., Shpak A.V. Opportunities and prospects for the emergence of new refineries in Russia’s Northern regions ................................................ 67 Shmatkov N.M., Kulyasova A.A., Korchagov S.A. Regulatory framework and development perspectives of the mechanism of public participation in the management of Russia’s forests ........................................................... 78 SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT Belyaeva L.A. Regional social capital and multiple modernization in Russia. On defining the problem ............................................................... 87 Migranova L.A., Toreyev V.B., Yarasheva A.V. Economic behavior: analysis and prospects ................................................................................................ 93 Popova L.A. Evaluation of efficiency of the public demographic initiatives .................... 101 Kovrigin B.V., Sinitsyna T.I. About middle class theory: history and modern times ......... 112 SOCIAL FINANCES Pechenskaya М.А. Budgetary prospects in the region in 2014–2016: implementation of the President’s social decrees or avoidance of default risks? ...................... 117 INNOVATION DEVELOPMENT Terebova S.V., Kuzmin I.V. The EU’s Seventh Framework Programme: opportunities for Russian academic institutions ............................................130 Ma Zhihui. Assessment of Jiangxi regional innovation system construction .....................142 Kireeva A.A. Theoretical and methodological framework establishing the conditions for the development of innovation clusters ..............................148 MODELING AND INFORMATICS Sadov S.L. The use of median rank for the comparison of alternatives in the long-term ...154 YOUNG RESEARCHERS Popov A.V. Assessment of the effectiveness of population’s labor behaviour at the macro-level .........................................................................................160 RAS Academician, the Journal's Editorial Council member Vladimir V. Okrepilov celebrates his 70th Anniversary ........................................................ 170 Requirements to manuscripts ....................................................................................... 173 Subscription information .............................................................................................. 175 FROM THE CHIEF EDITOR Time factor February 9, 2012, presidential candidate V.V. Putin, speaking at the Congress of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, was quite objective in his statements about the root cause of high social tension in Russia: “…concerning what was going on in the 1990s, when doing business was often reduced to slicing the state pie”. V.V. Putin points out: “We should, of course, turn over this very page Vladimir Aleksandrovich as well… Otherwise we will not be able to develop a modern market ILYIN Doctor of Economics, economy and, what is more, we will not be able to create a healthy Professor, Honoured civil society... The most important decisions must be taken in 2012 Scientist of the Russian already.” 1 Federation, Two years have passed since V.V. Putin announced his ISEDT RAS Director determination to handle this pressing issue. Besides, he has been [email protected] President for more than 18 months now, but, sadly, no actual steps have been taken so far. The system of state property distribution that has developed in Russia is socially unfair; it is a sore spot for the vast majority of the population. However, this issue is reflected neither in the Decrees of May 7, 2012, adopted on V.V. Putin’s accession to presidency, nor in his first Address to the Federal Assembly, nor in his second Address on December 12, 2013. Speaking at the Valdai International Club in September 2013, President V.V. Putin pointed out: “…The main thing that will determine success is the quality of citizens, the quality of society: their intellectual, spiritual and moral strength” 2. 1 V.V. Putin’s speech at the RUIE congress on February 9, 2012. Official website of V.V. Putin. Available at: http://premier.gov.ru/events/news/18052/ 2 Putin V.V. Speech at the session of the Valdai International Discussion Club on September 19, 2013. Available at: htpp://www.kremlin.ru/news/19243 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 1 (31) 2014 5 Time factor V.V. Putin’s Valdai speech gave rise to many in the first place. And all this should be done commentaries in different expert groups3. not just by some department, but the President People were arguing what the national idea himself and his team”4. should be, what principles it should be based It must be done without delay. Neglect of on, and how our elite could be nationa- the time factor, expressed in a constant lized. discrepancy between words and actions, Political