THE GROWTH OUTLOOK FOR THE GREATER GOLDEN HORSESHOE Kawartha Peterborough Lakes Simcoe Grey Northumberland Dufferin Durham York Wellington Peel Toronto LAKE ONTARIO Halton erth Waterloo Hamilton Oxford Brant Niagara Haldimand Norfolk HEMSON C o n s u l t i n g L t d. January 2005 THE GROWTH OUTLOOK FOR THE GREATER GOLDEN HORSESHOE January 2005 Prepared by HEMSON C o n s u l t i n g L t d. Russell B. Mathew, MCIP, RPP, PLE, Partner Raymond J. Simpson, CMC, MCIP, RPP, Partner Antony Lorius, CMC, MCIP, RPP, Senior Consultant David MacLeod, Senior Consultant Andrew Sjogren, Consultant HEMSON CONSULTING LTD. 30 St. Patrick Street, Suite 1000 Toronto Ontario M5T 3A3 Phone: 416-593-5090 FOREWORD By the Greater Golden Horseshoe Forecast Committee The Greater Golden Horseshoe Forecast Committee is pleased to present prosperity balanced with social and environmental interests. These the attached report entitled The Growth Outlook for the Greater Golden challenges are: Horseshoe. The Committee is composed of staff from the Ministries of Public Infrastructure Renewal, Transportation and Municipal Affairs and • A shift required in housing choices and preferences towards Housing, as well as staff of upper tier and single tier municipalities. more compact units (row houses and apartments). The preparation of common forecasts is a cornerstone of coordinated • Better live-work proximity is essential which requires a planning across the Greater Golden Horseshoe. These forecasts at a matching of job creation and population in our communities. regional/county level provide a sense of the magnitude of growth pressures and challenges that municipalities in the Greater Golden • Coordinated provincial and municipal land use, infrastructure Horseshoe area may face. and investment decisions are required to accommodate this growth in an efficient and cost effective manner. This report shows a significant increase in forecasted population, employment and housing units to 2031. For the Greater Golden • Protection of our environment including natural heritage Horseshoe overall, the pace of growth is more rapid than previously areas, agriculture lands, the cultural environment and the anticipated and may result in almost a doubling in population for some quality of our air, water and land. municipalities. There is general agreement that we need more compact, mixed use The Forecast Committee believes that these forecasts can serve as communities organized around a system of centres and corridors valuable input to the Ministry of Public Infrastructure Renewal in accessible by effective transit systems. This system will help us finalizing their Places to Grow growth plan for the Greater Golden protect our countryside, our health and our quality of life. Horseshoe. The three scenarios presented in this report – “Current Trends”, “Compact” and “More Compact” – represent a continuum of Each of the municipalities in the Greater Golden Horseshoe will have moving towards a more sustainable urban form with a shift in housing to evaluate the implications of these new forecasts. How and if the choices from the traditional, low density to a more compact urban form. growth can be accommodated will have to be assessed by This shift gives priority to intensification and compact development. municipalities from their unique circumstances. Ultimately, each municipality will need to make long term policy decisions about The new forecasts call for a large quantum increase by 2031: 3,710,000 future growth having given consideration to provincial policies and new residents, 1,690,000 new housing units and 1,750,000 new jobs directions, infrastructure capacities, financial considerations and over the 30 year period to 2031. There are, however, a number of dialogue with local stakeholders/community members. significant challenges that we will need to manage if these new forecasts are to be realized and for us to continue to enjoy the benefits of economic Foreward Page 1 Foreward to The Growth Outlook for the Greater Golden Horseshoe If the Greater Golden Horseshoe as a whole is to accommodate these There is no silver bullet to effectively manage the level of growth growth forecasts we need a much more innovative, coordinated and associated with these new forecasts. Simple changes to our planning progressive approach to growth management. Simply put, the framework policies alone are not enough. Our communities will not be able to that has guided growth and development decisions in Central Ontario for manage the projected levels of growth and retain our economic the last 50 years needs to change – extraordinary growth requires vitality and quality of life without progressive changes to our extraordinary change in the way we do business. planning, investment and financial systems. The Provincial growth plan must set the stage with supportive strategies, investment and A number of elements in our approach to growth management need to policy. A concentrated effort by all levels of government and change. stakeholders is required – a new way of doing business is critical to our success. 1. Long-term Infrastructure Investment: An extraordinary long term sustained infrastructure investment plan and implementation program by all levels of government is required. The Greater Golden Horseshoe Committee The program should focus on transit, housing, sewer and water January, 2005 system renewal and goods movement in Ontario. It is also critical for provincial human services funding to keep pace with this growth. This will require significant financial investment and innovative financial partnerships to implement. 2. Fiscal Policies: Our federal, provincial and municipal fiscal policies and taxation framework need to be brought more into sync with the objective of compact, dynamic communities. Fiscal policies need to better support compact mixed use development, including rental housing, mixed use developments and transit use. Realigning our fiscal policies is required to achieve our common planning vision. 3. Integrated Planning Approach: The Province has begun a new approach to planning with its Places to Grow and Greenbelt initiatives. A similar new approach to the planning process and approvals is required. Municipal growth management plans that implement the vision and provide an overall local strategy to address growth pressures should be supported. This new approach to planning must rationalize and expedite planning, approvals and implementation. Foreward Page 2 Foreward to The Growth Outlook for the Greater Golden Horseshoe EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report presents a set of growth forecasts for the Greater Golden 5. The population will continue to age and will be a critical demographic Horseshoe (GGH), the area made up of the Greater Toronto force affecting growth. Age-specific housing choices and labour force Area–Hamilton (GTAH) and the remaining Regions and Counties in participation have enormous implications for growth and planning in the GGH. the GGH (the Outer Ring). The forecasts and report were prepared with the assistance of the GTAH Forecast Committee, composed of represen- 6. The appropriate long-term planning and funding arrangements are tatives of the Cities of Toronto and Hamilton, the four Regions and the in place to accommodate anticipated growth pressures. Specifically Province as well as the Outer Ring Advisory Committee composed of it is assumed that there will be ongoing investment in infrastructure. representatives of the upper-tier municipalities and separated cities in A low, reference and high forecast has been prepared. The Reference the Outer Ring and the Province. forecast incorporates, in our view, the most reasonable set of assumptions about the future economy. The Reference forecast anticipates that the A principal set of assumptions are made about the economic future of population and employment of the GGH will increase respectively by Ontario, followed by more specific assumptions related to population, more than 3.7 million people, and almost 1.8 million jobs to 2031. A household and employment growth. The principal assumptions are: significant amount of this growth will be accommodated within the 1. The long term economic outlook is very positive. Continued GTAH. This is illustrated in the following two tables. economic growth in Canada, Ontario and the GGH is anticipated, and is the foundation of the forecast. Greater Golden Horseshoe Population Reference Forecast (in 000s) 2. Economic and population growth will continue to be concentrated in large urban regions. Canada’s population growth continues to be GTAH Outer Ring Total GGH concentrated in a few major areas, especially in the GGH. 1991 4,840 1,670 6,510 2001 5,810 1,980 7,790 3. The orientation of the local economy will still be predominately 2011 6,860 2,230 9,090 industrial. On balance, the GGH is one of the most heavily industrial- 2021 7,780 2,560 10,340 ised large metropolitan economies in Canada and the United States. 2031 8,620 2,880 11,500 4. Migration will increasingly be the primary generator of population Growth, 2001–2031 2,810 900 3,710 growth. Note: Total population including Census under coverage Source: Statistics Canada and Hemson Consulting Ltd. Executive Summary / i The Growth Outlook for the Greater Golden Horseshoe Hemson Consulting Ltd. Greater Golden Horseshoe Employment by Place of Work With respect to the distribution of growth within the GTAH and Outer Reference Forecast (in 000s) Ring, three growth scenarios have been prepared — the Current Trends GTAH Outer Ring Total GGH Scenario, Compact Scenario and the More Compact Scenario. 1991 2,500 720 3,220 2001 2,940 870 3,810 • The Current Trends Scenario is our best judgement of the most likely distribution of growth based upon the current level of policy 2011 3,630 1,010 4,640 intervention, current and future settlement patterns, and the 2021 4,030 1,130 5,160 2031 4,320 1,240 5,560 provision of necessary infrastructure to support growth. Growth, 2001–31 1,380 370 1,750 • The Compact and More Compact scenarios are policy-based forecasts. They have been run with specific input from the Province Source: Statistics Canada and Hemson Consulting Ltd.