Contemporary Issues in Gun Policy Essays from the RAND Gun Policy in America Project EDITED BY RAJEEV RAMCHAND AND JESSICA SAUNDERS Sponsored by Arnold Ventures SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC WELL-BEING About RAND The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. To learn more about RAND, visit www.rand.org Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © 2021 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RRA243-2 Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute Preface Effective gun policies in the United States must balance Second Amendment rights and public interest in gun ownership with concerns about public health and safety. However, cur- rent efforts to craft legislation related to guns are hampered by a paucity of reliable informa- tion about the effects of such policies. To help address this problem, the RAND Corporation launched the Gun Policy in America initiative. Throughout RAND’s more than 70-year his- tory, in multiple projects, in many policy arenas, and on topics that are sensitive and con- troversial, researchers have conducted analyses, built tools, and developed resources to help policymakers and the public make effective decisions. The primary goal of the Gun Policy in America project is to create resources where policymakers and the general public can access unbiased information that facilitates the development of fair and effective firearm policies.1 This initiative has yielded several research products, such as a state firearm law data- base, a survey of policy experts that identified where access to reliable data would be most useful in resolving policy debates, and two editions of a report that synthesizes available sci- entific data on the effects of 18 types of firearm policies on a variety of outcomes related to gun ownership. This report presents a collection of essays that also synthesize the available scientific data on topics pertinent to gun policy in the United States. Three of these essays (Chapters One, Two, and Three) are updates to essays that were originally published in a 2018 RAND report and on the Gun Policy in America website,2 and two essays (Chapters Four and Five) are entirely new contributions. The work should be of interest to policymakers and other stakeholders considering deci- sions related to firearm policy. Furthermore, this report may be of interest to the research community and to the general public. Justice Policy Program RAND Social and Economic Well-Being is a division of the RAND Corporation that seeks to actively improve the health and social and economic well-being of populations and com- munities throughout the world. This research was conducted in the Justice Policy Program within RAND Social and Economic Well-Being. The program focuses on such topics as access to justice, policing, corrections, drug policy, and court system reform, as well as other policy concerns pertaining to public safety and criminal and civil justice. For more informa- tion, email [email protected]. 1 Although not all guns are firearms, in this report, we follow conventional use in U.S. policy discussions and treat the terms gun and firearm as interchangeable. 2 See RAND Corporation, The Science of Gun Policy: A Critical Synthesis of Research Evidence on the Effects of Gun Policies in the United States, Santa Monica, Calif., RR-2088-RC, 2018; and www.rand.org/gunpolicy. iii Contemporary Issues in Gun Policy: Essays from the RAND Gun Policy in America Project Funding Funding for the Gun Policy in America initiative was originally provided through unre- stricted gifts from RAND supporters and income from operations. Since June 2018, this ini- tiative has been supported by a grant from Arnold Ventures. To support RAND’s efforts and enable initiatives like the Gun Policy in America project, contact our Office of Development at (310) 393-0411, ext. 6901 or [email protected]. iv Contents Preface ..................................................................................................... iii Figures and Tables ...................................................................................... vii Summary .................................................................................................. ix Acknowledgments ....................................................................................... xi Abbreviations ........................................................................................... xiii CHAPTER ONE Mass Shootings in the United States ................................................................... 1 Rosanna Smart and Terry L. Schell What Is a Mass Shooting? .............................................................................. 2 Are Mass Shootings on the Rise? ....................................................................10 Characteristics of Mass Public Shootings...........................................................15 Research on Policies That Might Reduce Mass Shootings ........................................20 Conclusions .............................................................................................22 Chapter One References ...............................................................................25 CHAPTER TWO Firearm and Ammunition Taxes ......................................................................31 Rosanna Smart Conceptual Considerations ...........................................................................32 Current Policy ..........................................................................................34 Empirical Evidence ....................................................................................35 Conclusions .............................................................................................37 Chapter Two References ...............................................................................38 CHAPTER THREE The Effects of the 1996 National Firearms Agreement in Australia on Suicide, Homicide, and Mass Shootings ..................................................................43 Rajeev Ramchand and Jessica Saunders Effects on Firearm Ownership .......................................................................44 Effects on Suicide and Homicide Mortality in Australia .........................................45 Establishing a Causal Effect ..........................................................................48 Methods .................................................................................................49 Research Synthesis Findings ..........................................................................50 Conclusion ..............................................................................................64 Chapter Three References .............................................................................65 v Contemporary Issues in Gun Policy: Essays from the RAND Gun Policy in America Project CHAPTER FOUR Is Mental Illness a Risk Factor for Gun Violence? .................................................67 Rajeev Ramchand and Lynsay Ayer Mental Illness and Suicide ............................................................................68 Mental Illness and Firearm Interpersonal Violence ...............................................70 Summary and Conclusions ...........................................................................72 Chapter Four References .............................................................................73 CHAPTER FIVE Law Enforcement Approaches to Reduce Community Gun Violence ..........................77 Samuel Peterson and Shawn Bushway Standard Law Enforcement Approaches ...........................................................79 Proactive Law Enforcement Approaches ............................................................82 Conclusions .............................................................................................95 Chapter Five References ...............................................................................96 vi Figures and Tables Figures 1.1. Trends in Mass Shooting Incidents, 1976–2018 ........................................12 1.2. Trends in Mass Shooting Fatalities, 1976–2018 .........................................12 1.3. Trends in Mass Public Shooting Casualties, 1976–2018 ...............................14 3.1. Firearm and Nonfirearm Suicides in Australia, 1979–2013...........................46 3.2. Firearm and Nonfirearm Homicides in Australia, 1979–2013 .......................46 3.3. Homicides and Suicides in Australia, 1979–2013, Logarithmic