High-Speed Rail Integration to Corridor 24 Final Report CODE24 Action 17 team August 2015 2 Final Report Final Report 3 Preface Many parts of the European railway network are facing difficulties in coordinating the increasing number of passenger (high-speed, long-distance and regional) and freight services, especially in high-density urban areas that share tracks. The Rhine-Alpine Corridor linking Rotterdam with Genoa is particularly concerned. Tremendous pressure because of fairly tight public budgets and limited land resources makes separation of rail traffic and the underlying development of infrastructures difficult. However, an international integrated timed transfer has the potential to guarantee regional accessibility and to overcome spatial disparities which may be underpinned with the development of pure high-speed rail focusing too much on connecting metropolises. The work is part of a specific action named as “Increasing Network Accessibility by Including High Speed Rail (HSR)” which was part of the five year EU-project CODE24 (Corridor 24 Development Rotterdam – Genoa). The report will show that (potential) demand is generated by several stations and their hinterland along this densely populated and linked corridor and not predominantly by a few metropolises. This is in line with the literature review and the fact that 60 % of German long-distance demand arises from outside those metropolises. The report will also visualise a cross-border perspective and is therefore valuable to make a contribution for fulfilling the EU common goals and the 60 % reduction target for CO2-emissions as set in the EU White Paper on transport published in 2011. The results of this study will help the partners of the newly founded follow-up organization “Interregional Alliance for the Rhine-Alpine Corridor EGTC” to refine a strategy established for the development of this corridor. We hope you enjoy reading and welcome any feedback for the on-going strategy. Birgit Simon Erste Beigeordnete Regionalverband FrankfurtRheinMain Maurizio Arnone Head of the Logistics and Transport Research Unit SiTI - Higher Institute on Territorial Systems for Innovation Antonello Fontanili Director of Uniontrasporti Dr. Herbert Kemming Senior Fellow ILS - Institut für Landes- und Stadtentwicklungsforschung gGmbH Christoph Trinemeier Planning Director Verband Region Rhein-Neckar Lead Partner CODE24 Laura Ghio Planning and Development Department Autorità Portuale di Genova Prof. Bernd Scholl Chair of Spatial Development ETH Zürich 4 Final Report Table of Contents Preface ......................................................................................................................................................3 Executive Summary .................................................................................................................................6 1 Introduction ..........................................................................................................................................9 1.1 Action 17 – Objectives ................................................................................................................ 10 1.2 Methodologies for the Three Activities ........................................................................................ 10 1.3 Structure of the Report ............................................................................................................... 12 2.1 High-Speed Rail – Definiton, Strengths and Weaknesses .............................................................. 13 2 High-Speed Rail Framework in Europe and Overseas ..................................................................... 13 2.2 Overseas High-Speed Rail Experiences ......................................................................................... 16 2.2.1 Japanese Railway Development and the Shinkansen Corridor ...................................................... 17 2.2.2 U.S. Railway Development and the Acela Line (Northeast Corridor) ............................................. 18 2.3 European High-Speed Rail Network – Past and Future ................................................................. 20 2.4 High-Speed Traffic Trends in the Last Ten Years ............................................................................ 23 3 Current Integration between Corridor and Regional Services ....................................................... 26 3.1 Mobility Demand ....................................................................................................................... 26 3.1.1 Main Mobility Nodes ................................................................................................................... 27 3.1.2 Main Mobility Relations ............................................................................................................... 27 3.2 Railway Services Integration ........................................................................................................ 29 3.2.1 Methodology and Data Visualization ........................................................................................... 30 3.2.2 Corridor Accessibility: Integration among Corridor Services ......................................................... 35 3.2.3 Regional Accessibility: Integration between Corridor and Regional Services ................................. 42 3.3 Does Transport Supply Meet Mobility Needs? .............................................................................. 44 4 EXPO Milano 2015 Case Study .......................................................................................................... 46 4.1 Accessibility to and from the EXPO Centre (Modal Split) .............................................................. 47 4.2 Methods to Estimate Railway Capacity ....................................................................................... 58 4.2.1 A Set of Examples to Illustrate what Railway Line Capacity Depends upon ................................... 59 4.2.2 A Survey of Methods for the Evaluation of Railway Line Capacity ................................................ 63 4.2.3 Summary of Features and Inputs of the Methods Surveyed.......................................................... 72 4.2.4 Calculation of the Capacity on the Pavia-Milano Rogoredo Railway Line ...................................... 73 4.3 Method and Application to Investigate the Feasibility of a Dedicated Railway Service between.... Genova and the EXPO Centre ..................................................................................................... 74 4.3.1 Method ...................................................................................................................................... 75 4.3.2 Transport Demand Outlook ......................................................................................................... 75 4.3.3 Transport Capacity ...................................................................................................................... 76 4.3.4 Route .......................................................................................................................................... 76 4.3.5 The Feasibility of an Added Rail Path between Genova and Rho-Fiera and Back ........................... 78 4.3.6 Connections ............................................................................................................................... 85 4.3.7 Competing Alternatives .............................................................................................................. 87 4.3.8 Conclusions ................................................................................................................................ 88 5 Expert Workshop ............................................................................................................................... 91 5.1 Workshop Outline ....................................................................................................................... 91 5.2 Workshop Outcome .................................................................................................................... 91 5.2.1 Transfer Time .............................................................................................................................. 91 5.2.2 Integration .................................................................................................................................. 91 5.2.3 HS Service Models ....................................................................................................................... 92 5.2.4 HS/LD Service Models .................................................................................................................. 93 Final Report 5 5.2.5 Competition HS Rail/Air .............................................................................................................. 93 5.2.6 Cross-Border Trains ..................................................................................................................... 93 5.2.7 EXPO 2015 ................................................................................................................................. 94 6 International Integrated Timed Transfer .......................................................................................... 95 6.1 CODE24 Methodology ................................................................................................................ 95 6.2 Different Scenarios of Rail Service Offer