BEHIND THE CHANGE IN TURKISH FOREIGN POLICY VIS-À-VIS CYPRUS BETWEEN 2002 AND 2004: THE IMPACT OF LEADERSHIP AND THE EU İNANÇ KAMBUROĞLU Thesis submitted to the University of Nottingham for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy March 2015 1 ABSTRACT This thesis attempts to explain the change in Turkey’s foreign policy regarding Cyprus between 2002 and 2004. It argues that the overriding factor in this policy change was a change in leadership, i.e., the coming to power of the Justice and Development Party (AKP), which developed a decidedly liberal outlook on foreign affairs following its split in 2001 from the anti-Western, Islamist Welfare Party. Other crucial determinants included the Europeanization of the Cyprus issue and selective support for interest groups within Turkey, both of which were affected to various degrees by the European Union and a propitious change in decision-making context. This thesis shows how constant policy failures during the 1980s and 1990s led to an identity crisis and the subsequent radical ideational transformation of the AKP whereby the party leadership renounced political Islamism and began to espouse an EU-oriented policy agenda and compatible rhetoric. The arguments presented in this thesis contribute to the literature on foreign policy analysis, political leadership and Europeanization. With regard to foreign policy analysis, this thesis shows that foreign policy change is a multi-causal phenomenon that can only be explained by a combination of various concepts. Moreover, it argues that despite the fact that no ready-made formula can account for all cases of foreign policy alterations, changes in leadership and a favourable decision-making composition appear to be indispensable determinants of any foreign policy shift. With regard to leadership, by applying a social-learning model to the analysis of the AKP leadership, this thesis follows the evolution of the Turkish Islamist Movement towards conservative democracy and an embracing of EU norms, which in turn resulted in a change in Turkey’s Cyprus policy. It is argued that Turkey’s new Cyprus policy was above all the consequence of a radical normative shift in the mindset of the new Turkish leadership. With regard to Europeanization, this thesis demonstrates how the change in Turkey’s foreign policy vis-à-vis Cyprus was bolstered by the Europeanization process. In this context, it can be understood that the EU militated in favour of a policy alteration by Europeanizing the Cyprus disagreement with the acceptance of the Republic of 2 Cyprus into the EU in May 2004. The third essential determinant of Turkish foreign policy shift was the emergence of a propitious decision-making context within Turkey, which rendered such a policy shift possible. 3 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to express my gratitude to Prof. Wyn Rees at the University of Nottingham and Dr. Geoffrey Edwards at the University of Cambridge, for their valuable contribution to the completion of my research. I would also like to thank the staff at the School of Politics and International Relations and my colleagues for providing a supportive and friendly research environment. Finally, I would also like to express my gratitude to the officials, academics and journalists in Turkey and in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus for sharing their opinions with me. Last but not least, I would like to give my special thanks to my wonderful daughters, İpek and Deniz, who rendered my life meaningful. Therefore, this thesis, in all modesty, is dedicated to them. 4 LIST OF ABBREVATIONS AKP-Justice and Development Party ANAP-Motherland Party APEC-Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation BIA-Business Interest Associations BSP-Bulgarian Socialist Party CFSP-Common Foreign and Security Policy CTP-Republican Turkish Party DP-Party Democratic DSP-Democratic Left Party EC-European Community ECHR-European Court of Human Rights EFTA-European Free Trade Association EOKA-B-National Organisation of Cypriot Fighters EPC-European Political Cooperation EU-European Union FP-Virtue Party HCCI-Hungarian Chambers of Commerce and Industry HDZ-Croatian Democratic Union IKV-Economic Development Foundation ITC-Committee of Union and Progress MGK-National Security Council MHP-Nationalist Action Party MÜSİAD-The Independent Industrialists and Businessmen’s Association NAFTA-North American Free Trade Area NATO-North Atlantic Treaty Organization 5 NSWP-Non Soviet Warsaw Pact NPAA-National Programme for the Adoption of the Acquis OSCE-Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe PCC-Polish Chamber of Commerce PKK-Kurdistan Workers’ Party PSD-Social Democratic Party ROP-Republic of Cyprus RP-Welfare Party TBMM-Turkish National Grand Assembly TESEV-Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation TOBB-Turkish Union of Chambers and Bursaries TRNC-Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus TÜRKİŞ-Confederation of Turkish Labour Unions TÜSİAD-Turkish Businessmen and Industrialists’ Association UBP-National Union Party UK-United Kingdom UN-United Nations UNFICYP-United Nations Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus URC-United Republic of Cyprus US-United States 6 TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT..................................................................................................................2 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS..........................................................................................4 LIST OF ABBREVATIONS........................................................................................5 TABLE OF CONTENTS............................................................................................. 7 PART ONE: DEFINING FOREIGN POLICY CHANGE.........................................11 INTRODUCTION.......................................................................................................11 1. Context of the Topic .......................................................................................... .11 2. Background ......................................................................................................... 12 3. The Cyprus Question as an Intractable Problem ................................................. 13 4. Nature of the Puzzle ............................................................................................ 14 5. Argument ............................................................................................................ 15 6. Defining Change ................................................................................................. 21 7. Research Methodology ....................................................................................... 22 8. Outline ................................................................................................................ 25 CHAPTER I: THE BACKGROUND TO THE CYPRUS QUESTION.....................29 1. The Cyprus Question and Federalism ................................................................ .29 2. The UN’s Parameters for Cyprus ........................................................................ 34 3. Literature Review on Cyprus .............................................................................. 36 3.1. Causes of the Cyprus Conflict......................................................................36 3.2. Conflict Resolution in Cyprus......................................................................39 3.3. Legal and Constitutional Aspects of the Cyprus Question...........................41 3.4. The Role of Outside Powers and Institutions in Cyprus...............................44 CHAPTER II: TURKISH FOREIGN POLICY IN GENERAL AND TOWARDS CYPRUS IN PARTICULAR......................................................................................49 1. Determinants of Turkish Foreign Policy ...................................................... ...49 1.1. Determinants of Turkish Foreign Policy in General................................49 1.2. Determinants of Turkish Foreign Policy between 1990-2001.................51 1.3. Determinants of Turkish Foreign Policy from the Early 2000s to Date..53 2. Turkish Foreign Policy towards Cyprus ......................................................... 57 2.1. The Emergence of the Cyprus Question and Turkey’s Cyprus Policy in the 1950s..............................................................................................................57 2.2. Turkey’s Cyprus Policy, 1960-1980........................................................59 7 2.3. Turkey’s Cyprus Policy, 1980-1990........................................................63 2.4. Turkey’s Cyprus Policy, 1980-1990........................................................64 2.5. Turkey’s Cyprus Policy, 1990-2001........................................................65 2.6. Turkey’s Cyprus Policy, After 2001........................................................72 CHAPTER III: THREE WAYS IN WHICH TURKISH POLICY ON CYPRUS HAS CHANGED..................................................................................................................77 1. Change in Policy Instruments ......................................................................... 78 2. Change in the Policy Goal .............................................................................. 82 3. The Normative Change ................................................................................... 85 CHAPTER IV: EXPLAINING FOREIGN POLICY CHANGE................................88 1. Causes Related to the International System .................................................... 90 1.1. International Institutionalization..............................................................91