Exceptional Event Demonstration for September 2017 PM10 Exceedances Due to Wildfires At Kennewick and Yakima, WA Washington Department of Ecology August 2018 Public Review Draft Publication and Contact Information This document is available on the Department of Ecology’s website at: https://fortress.wa.gov/ecy/publications/summarypages/XXXXXXX.html For more information contact: Air Quality Program P.O. Box 47600 Olympia, WA 98504-7600 Phone: 360-407-7528 Washington State Department of Ecology — www.ecology.wa.gov • Headquarters, Olympia 360-407-6000 • Northwest Regional Office, Bellevue 425-649-7000 • Southwest Regional Office, Olympia 360-407-6300 • Central Regional Office, Union Gap 509-575-2490 • Eastern Regional Office, Spokane 509-329-3400 To request ADA accommodation including materials in a format for the visually impaired, call Ecology at (360) 407- 6800 or visit https://ecology.wa.gov/accessibility. People with impaired hearing may call Washington Relay Service at 711. People with speech disability may call TTY at 877-833-6341. Exceptional Event Demonstration for September 2017 PM10 Exceedances Due to Wildfires At Kennewick and Yakima, WA By Caroline (Ying) Sun Air Quality Program Washington State Department of Ecology zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Olympia, Washington i zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA This page is purposely left blank ii Table of Contents zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA---Page List of Figures and Tables.................................................................................................. iii Figures.......................................................................................................................... iii Tables ........................................................................................................................... iv Acknowledgements ..............................................................................................................v Acronyms and Abbreviations ............................................................................................ vi Executive Summary .......................................................................................................... vii 1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................1 2 Regulatory Significance .................................................................................................3 3 Conceptual Model..........................................................................................................3 3.1 Overview ..........................................................................................................3 3.2 General Weather Conditions............................................................................6 3.3 Source Area and Affected Region ...................................................................9 3.4 Monitors Impact .............................................................................................15 3.5 Summary ........................................................................................................17 4 Clear Causal Relationship ............................................................................................17 5 Comparison of Event-Related Concentration to Historical Concentrations................18 5.1 Comparison with Historical Data and Identified “High” Values...................18 5.2 Demonstrate Spatial and Temporal Variability of PM10 in the Area .............21 5.3 Determine Percentile Ranking .......................................................................24 5.4 Plot Annual Time Series ................................................................................27 5.5 Identify Diurnal or Seasonal Patterns ............................................................29 6 Not Reasonably Controllable or Preventable ...............................................................31 7 Human Activity Unlikely to Recur or Natural Event ..................................................31 8 Public Notification .......................................................................................................31 8.1 Ecology Air Quality Notifications .................................................................32 8.2 Benton Clean Air Agency Notifications........................................................32 8.3 Yakima Clean Air Agency Notifications .......................................................33 9 Flagging and Initial Notification ..................................................................................33 10 Public Involvement and Public Comments............................................................33 11 Conclusion .............................................................................................................34 i zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA 12 Bibliography ..........................................................................................................35 13 Appendices .............................................................................................................36 Appendix A. Wildfires that Caused Smoky Conditions on September 5, 6 and 7, 2017 ..36 Appendix B. Air Quality Alerts Messages ........................................................................39 Appendix C. Benton Clean Air Agency Press Release......................................................48 Appendix D. Yakima Regional Clean Air Agency News Release ....................................49 Appendix E. Media Reports...............................................................................................50 Appendix F. Governor Inslee Declaration of Statewide Wildfire Emergency ..................66 Appendix G. Washington Smoke Blog..............................................................................68 Appendix H. Washington Ecology Twitter and Facebook Posting ...................................78 ii List of Figures and Tables zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA---Page Figures Figure 1 Daily and 5-day average acres burned for 2017 fire season............................................. 5 Figure 2 September 5-8, 2017 500 mb height contours over North America showing daily progression of upper level ridge over the Pacific Northwest. ......................................................... 7 Figure 3 Troutdale, OR wind profiler from 3-8 September 2017. Read from right to left............. 8 Figure 4. 24-hour HYSPLIT back trajectories at 50 (green), 500 (blue), and 2000 (red) meter starting heights on September 4, 2017 for Kennewick (left) and Yakima (right).. ...................... 10 Figure 5. 24-hour HYSPLIT back trajectories at 50 (green), 500 (blue), and 2000 (red) meter starting heights on September 5, 2017 for Kennewick (left) and Yakima (right). ....................... 11 Figure 6. 24-hour HYSPLIT back trajectories at 50 (green), 500 (blue), and 2000 (red) meter starting heights on September 6, 2017 for Kennewick (left) and Yakima (right).. ...................... 12 Figure 7. 24-hour HYSPLIT back trajectories at 50 (green), 500 (blue), and 2000 (red) meter starting heights on September 7, 2017 for Kennewick (left) and Yakima (right).. ...................... 13 Figure 8 Large wildfire incidents in the US on September 6, 2017. Source: NIFC. ................... 14 Figure 9. Eastern Washington PM10 monitoring stations and maintenance areas ........................ 16 Figure 10. Kennewick 24-hour PM10 concentrations by date, 2013-2017. .................................. 19 Figure 11. Yakima 24-hour PM10 concentrations by date, 2013-2017......................................... 20 Figure 12. Hourly PM10 and PM2.5 at KENMETA with the surrounding two weeks of the event days on September 5, 6 and 7, 2017. ............................................................................................ 22 Figure 13. Hourly PM10 and PM2.5 at Spokane with the surrounding two weeks of the event days on September 5, 6 and 7, 2017. ..................................................................................................... 23 Figure 14. Hourly PM10 and PM2.5 at Yakima with the surrounding two weeks of the event days on September 5, 6 and 7, 2017. ..................................................................................................... 23 Figure 15. Kennewick frequency distribution of 24-hour PM10 concentrations, 2013-2017. ...... 25 Figure 16. Yakima frequency distribution of 24-hour PM10 concentrations, 2013-2017. ............ 26 Figure 17. Overlay Five Years of 24-hour PM10 data from Kennewick Monitor. ........................ 28 Figure 18. Overlay Five Years of 24-hour PM10 data from Yakima Monitor. ............................. 29 Figure 19 PM10 Diurnal pattern on event days comparing with diurnal patterns on nonevent days during summer months from 2013-2016 at Kennewick. .............................................................. 30 Figure 20 PM10 Diurnal pattern on event days comparing with diurnal patterns on nonevent days during summer months from 2015-2017 at Yakima. .................................................................... 30 iii zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Tables Table 1 PM10 Exceedances at Kennewick and Yakima on September 5, 6 and