CENTRE FOR THE LAW OF EU EXTERNAL RELATIONS Founded in 2008, the Centre for the Law of and prosperity and is carried out along the fol- EU External Relations (CLEER) is the first au- lowing transversal topics: thoritative research interface between academia • the reception of international norms in the EU and practice in the field of the Union’s external legal order; relations. CLEER serves as a leading forum for • the projection of EU norms and impact on the debate on the role of the EU in the world, but its development of international law; most distinguishing feature lies in its in-house re- • coherence in EU foreign and security policies; search capacity, complemented by an extensive • consistency and effectiveness of EU external network of partner institutes throughout Europe. policies. Goals CLEER’s research focuses primarily on four • To carry out state-of-the-art research leading cross-cutting issues: The Brexit Roadmap: Mapping the Choices and to offer solutions to the challenges facing the • the fight against illegal immigration and crime; EU in the world today. • the protection and promotion of economic and Consequences during the EU/UK withdrawal and • To achieve high standards of academic excel- financial interests; lence and maintain unqualified independence. • the protection of the environment, climate and Future Relationship Negotiations • To provide a forum for discussion among all energy; stakeholders in the EU external policy pro- • the ability to provide military security. Mitchel van der Wel and Ramses A. Wessel cess. • To build a collaborative network of researchers Network and practitioners across the whole of Europe. CLEER carries out its research via the T.M.C. • To disseminate our findings and views through Asser Institute’s own in-house research pro- a regular flow of publications and public gramme and through a collaborative research events. network centred around the active participation of all Dutch universities and involving an expand- Assets ing group of other highly reputable institutes and • Complete independence to set its own re- specialists in Europe. search priorities and freedom from any outside influence. Activities • A growing pan-European network, comprising CLEER organises a variety of activities and research institutes and individual experts and special events, involving its members, partners practitioners who extend CLEER’s outreach, and other stakeholders in the debate at national, provide knowledge and practical experience EU- and international level. and act as a sounding board for the utility and CLEER’s funding is obtained from a variety of feasibility of CLEER’s findings and proposals. sources, including the T.M.C. Asser Instituut, project research, foundation grants, confer- Research programme ences fees, publication sales and grants from CLEER’s research programme centres on the the European Commission. EU’s contribution in enhancing global stability CENTRE FOR THE LAW OF EU EXTERNAL RELATIONS T.M.C. Asser Instituut inter-university research centre CLEER is hosted by the T.M.C. Asser Instituut, Schimmelpennincklaan 20-22 E-mail: [email protected] 2517 JN, The Hague, The Netherlands Website: http://www.cleer.eu CLEER PAPERS 2017/5 Contents CENTRE FOR THE Law OF EU EXTERNAL Relations THE BREXIT ROADMAP: MAPPING THE CHOICES AND CONSEQUENCES DURING THE EU/UK WITHDRAWAL AND FUTURE RELATIONSHIP NEGOTIATIONS MITCHEL vAN DER WEL AND RAMSES A. WESSEL CLEER PAPERS 2017/5 1 CLEER PAPERS 2017/5 CLEER PAPERS 2017/5 Contents Governing board / Board of editors Prof. Fabian Amtenbrink (Erasmus University Rotterdam) Prof. Steven Blockmans (CEPS/University of Amsterdam) Dr. Wybe Douma (T.M.C. Asser Institute) Prof. Christophe Hillion (SIEPS/University of Leiden) Dr. Andrea Ott (Maastricht University) Dr. Enrico Partiti (T.M.C. Asser Instituut) Prof. Ramses Wessel (University of Twente) Associate editors Dr. Ton van den Brink (Utrecht University) Dr. Andrés Delgado Casteleiro (Durham University) Dr. Angelos Dimopoulos (Queen Mary University) Dr. Christina Eckes (University of Amsterdam) Prof. Dr. Peter Van Elsuwege (Ghent University) Dr. Ester Herlin-Karnell (VU University, Amsterdam) Prof. Dr. Dimitry Kochenov (Groningen University) Dr. Jan-Willem van Rossem (Utrecht University) Dr Jorrit Rijpma (Leiden University) Dr. Nikos Skoutaris (University of East Anglia) Dr. Bart Van Vooren (University of Copenhagen) Prof. Dr. Henri de Waele (Radboud University, Nijmegen) Dr. Geert De Baere (KU Leuven) Dr. Joris Larik and Dr. Aaron Matta (The Hague Institute for Global Justice) Editor-in-Chief Dr. Enrico Partiti (T.M.C. Asser Instituut) Academic programme coordinator Dr. Enrico Partiti (T.M.C. Asser Instituut) Editorial policy The governing board of CLEER, in its capacity as board of editors, welcomes the submission of legal papers and commentaries (max. 40,000 resp. 4.000 words, incl. footnotes, accom- panied by keywords and short abstracts) at [email protected]. CLEER applies a double blind peer review system. When accepted, papers are published on the website of CLEER and in 100 hard copies with full colour cover. This text may be downloaded for personal research purposes only. Any additional reproduction, whether in hard copy or electronically, requires the consent of the author(s), editor(s). If cited or quoted, reference should be made to the full name of the author(s), editor(s), the title, the working paper or other series, the year and the publisher. The author(s), editor(s) should inform CLEER if the paper is to be published elsewhere, and should also assume responsibility for any consequent obligation(s). ISSN 1878-9587 (print) ISSN 1878-9595 (online) © Authors Printed in The Netherlands T.M.C. Asser Institute P.O. Box 30461 2500 GL The Hague The Netherlands www.cleer.eu 2 Contents CONTENTS Abstract 5 About the Authors and Acknowledgements 6 1. Introduction 7 2. Article 50 Teu and the Final Agreements 7 2.1. Ways to Withdraw from the EU 8 2.2. The Article 50 TEU Procedure 9 2.2.1. Euratom and the EEA 10 2.2.2. The Notification 11 2.2.3. The Procedural Steps 12 2.3. The Final Agreements 16 2.3.1. The Withdrawal Agreement 17 2.3.2. The Future Relationship Agreement 20 2.3.3. The Transition Agreement 22 2.4. Sub-conclusion 23 3. The Withdrawal Agreement 24 3.1. Step 1: The European Council Drafts the Guidelines 24 3.2. Step 2: The Council Authorizes the Opening of the Negotiations 26 3.3. Step 3: The Negotiations 27 3.3.1. The Financial Settlement 27 3.3.2. The Reciprocal Rights of EU and UK Citizens 30 3.3.3. The Border Between Ireland and Northern Ireland 33 3.3.4. The Disentanglement of the UK From International Treaties 34 3.3.5. Phasing out the UK’s Involvement in CSDP Missions and JHA Matters 36 3.3.6. Other Issues 37 3.3.7. Legal Scrubbing, Initialising and Translating 38 3.4. Step 4: The Council Authorizes the Signing of the Agreement and Provisional Application 39 3.5. Step 5: The European Parliament Gives Consent 40 3.6. Optional Step: EU-27 Ratify the Agreement 41 3.7. Step 6: The UK Approves and Ratifies the Agreement 43 3.8. Step 7: The Council Concludes the Agreement 45 3.9. Optional Step: Extending the Negotiation Period 45 3.10. Optional Step: A Role for the CJEU 46 3.11. Optional Step: The UK Revokes the Notification 47 3.12. Sub-conclusion 47 4. The Transition Agreement 50 4.1. The Legal Basis 50 3 CLEER PAPERS 2017/5 CLEER PAPERS 2017/5 Contents 4.2. The Options 51 4.2.1. Transition Arrangements Within the Withdrawal Agreement 51 4.2.2. A Separate Transition Agreement 52 4.2.3. Other Options 53 4.2.4. No Transition Agreement 54 4.3. Sub-conclusion 54 5. The Future Relationship Agreement 55 5.1. The Legal Basis 55 5.2. The Procedure 56 5.2.1. Step 1: The Commission Submits Recommendations to Council 56 5.2.2. Step 2: The Council Authorizes the Opening of the Negotia- tions 57 5.2.3. Step 3: The Negotiations 58 5.2.4. Step 4: The Council Authorizes the Signing of the Agreement and Provisional Application 59 5.2.5. Step 5: The European Parliament Gives Consent 59 5.2.6. Optional Step: The EU-27 Ratify the Agreement 60 5.2.7. Step 6: UK Approves and Ratifies Agreement 61 5.2.8. Step 7: The Council Concludes the Agreement 61 5.2.9. Optional Step: Role of the CJEU 62 5.3. Accession to the EFTA and EEA 62 5.3.1. EFTA Accession 62 5.3.2. EEA Membership Through the EFTA 63 5.4. Sub-conclusion 64 6. Templates for the Future Relationship Agreement 66 6.1. EFTA + EEA Membership / The Norway Model 67 6.2. EFTA + Bilateral Agreements / The Swiss Model 69 6.3. Customs Union / The Turkey Model 71 6.4. FTA / The Canada Model 72 6.5. AA / The Ukraine Model 73 6.6. Continental Partnership 74 6.7. WTO 75 6.8. Sub-conclusion 77 7. The Options for the Remainers 78 7.1. The Remainers 78 7.1.1. Scotland 79 7.1.2. Northern Ireland 80 7.1.3. Gibraltar 82 7.2. The Options 82 CONTENTS CONTENTS 3 ABSTRACT 5 ABOUT THE AUTHORS AND ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 6 1. INTRODUCTION 7 2. ARTICLE 50 TEU AND THE FINAL AGREEMENTS 7 7.2.1. Staying in the UK and the EU 83 2.1. Ways to Withdraw from the EU 8 2.2. The Article 50 TEU Procedure 9 2.2.1. Euratom and the EEA 10 2.2.2. The Notification 11 2.2.3. The Procedural Steps 12 2.3. The Final Agreements 16 2.3.1. The Withdrawal Agreement 17 2.3.2.