Clemson University TigerPrints All Dissertations Dissertations 8-2007 AN ANALYSIS OF COLLEGE BASKETBALL CONFERENCE STRUCTURE, CONFERENCE OFFICIALS, AND THEIR POTENTIAL EFFECT ON REVENUES Kris Mcwhite Clemson University, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://tigerprints.clemson.edu/all_dissertations Part of the Economics Commons Recommended Citation Mcwhite, Kris, "AN ANALYSIS OF COLLEGE BASKETBALL CONFERENCE STRUCTURE, CONFERENCE OFFICIALS, AND THEIR POTENTIAL EFFECT ON REVENUES" (2007). All Dissertations. 134. https://tigerprints.clemson.edu/all_dissertations/134 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Dissertations at TigerPrints. It has been accepted for inclusion in All Dissertations by an authorized administrator of TigerPrints. For more information, please contact [email protected]. AN ANALYSIS OF COLLEGE BASKETBALL CONFERENCE STRUCTURE, CONFERENCE OFFICIALS, AND THEIR POTENTIAL EFFECT ON REVENUES A Dissertation Presented to the Graduate School of Clemson University In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Doctor of Philosophy Applied Economics by Kris Brian McWhite December 2007 Accepted by: Dr. Robert Tollison, Committee Chair Dr. Robert McCormick Dr. Raymond Sauer Dr. Bentley Coffey iii ABSTRACT The NCAA men’s basketball tournament paid out over $122 million to athletic conferences during the 2005-06 season alone. 1 Using data from previous basketball seasons, I formulate a theory as to the actions athletic conferences may encourage their basketball referees to take in order to enhance their share of the purse. If we consider the individual team within a group of college teams acting as a division of the larger “firm,” that being the conference and not an individual “firm” itself, then it is appropriate to suggest a single team would allow actions that at first glance seem detrimental. Initial research into referees’ actions during games provides some slight evidence toward their favoring of particular teams depending on the possibility of those teams entering the tournament. Additionally, evidence is found to support the idea of the “home-court” advantage in officiating. 1 http://www1.ncaa.org/finance/revenue_distribution_plan iv v ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to thank my committee members for their time, patience, and valuable suggestions. I would also like to thank my fellow graduate students for their assistance and advice on this project as well as on many others throughout my years at Clemson University. vi vii DEDICATION I would like to dedicate this to my family whose support I have always had no matter what choices I made in life. Without them, this would not have been possible. viii ix TABLE OF CONTENTS Page TITLE PAGE............................................................................................................. i ABSTRACT............................................................................................................... iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS....................................................................................... v DEDICATION........................................................................................................... vii LIST OF TABLES..................................................................................................... xi CHAPTER I. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................... 1 II. THE COMPETITIVE ORGANIZATION OF COLLEGE BASKETBALL.................................................................................. 7 The Regular Season........................................................................... 7 The Conference Tournaments............................................................ 8 The NCAA Tournament .................................................................... 9 The Six Major Conferences ............................................................... 11 III. PREVIOUS RESEARCH........................................................................ 13 Introduction........................................................................................ 13 Referees as Active Participants.......................................................... 13 Defining a Sports League................................................................... 16 Other Related Works.......................................................................... 18 IV. A MODEL OF CONFERENCE BEHAVIOR ........................................ 21 The Conference Member ................................................................... 21 The Conference Commissioner.......................................................... 24 Misaligned Incentives........................................................................ 25 Conditions for Tournament Manipulation ......................................... 27 x Table of Contents (Continued) Page V. DETERMINING THE EXPECTED VALUE OF TOURNAMENT PAYOUTS............................................................ 31 Introduction........................................................................................ 31 The Dataset........................................................................................ 31 The Model.......................................................................................... 31 Empirical Results and Conclusions................................................... 33 VI. ANALYSIS OF REFEREE BIAS ........................................................... 37 Introduction........................................................................................ 37 The Dataset........................................................................................ 37 The Model.......................................................................................... 39 Empirical Results and Conclusions................................................... 41 VII. CONCLUSION........................................................................................ 47 APPENDICES ........................................................................................................... 51 A. Regression Data and Other Additional Information ................................ 53 B. Experimental Data................................................................................... 69 WORKS CITED ........................................................................................................ 70 xi LIST OF TABLES Table Page 2.0 Teams of the Major Conferences................................................................... 12 5.0 Tournaments 1985-2006 – Probability of Units Earned by Seed .................. 33 5.1 Breakdown of Seed Payouts .......................................................................... 34 6.0 Distribution of Basketball-Related Funds According to Number of Units by Conference, 2000-2005......................................................... 38 6.1 Division I Basketball Fund Payout per Conference....................................... 39 A.0 Multinomial Logistic Regression................................................................... 53 A.1 One Bubble Team Variable List .................................................................... 54 A.2 Two Bubble Teams Variable List.................................................................. 55 A.3 Three Bubble Teams Variable List................................................................ 56 A.4 Effects on 1st Half Foul Ratio ........................................................................ 57 A.5 Effects on 2nd Half Foul Ratio ....................................................................... 58 A.6 Effects on Game Total Foul Ratio ................................................................. 59 A.7 Effects on 1st Half Foul Ratio (Log) .............................................................. 60 A.8 Effects on 2nd Half Foul Ratio (Log) ............................................................. 61 A.9 Effects on Game Total Foul Ratio (Log) ....................................................... 62 A.10 Effects on 1st Half Foul Ratio (Home, Away, Neutral) ................................. 63 A.11 Effects on 2nd Half Foul Ratio (Home, Away, Neutral) ................................ 64 A.12 Effects on Game Total Foul Ratio (Home, Away Neutral) ........................... 65 A.13 Additional Complete NCAA Payout for All Conferences Division I Basketball Fund ...................................................................... 66 xii List of Tables (Continued) Table Page A.14 Additional Complete NCAA Units for All Conferences Distribution of Basketball-Related Funds According to Number of Units ................................................................ 67 B.0 Included as a supplemental file...................................................................... 69 1 CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION Near the end of the 2004 football season, the University of Texas—ranked #6 in the Bowl Championship Series (BCS)2—played the University of Kansas, which at the time only had one conference win and an overall losing record. With 4:11 remaining in the game, Texas trailed Kansas 13 to 23. Texas managed to score two touchdowns and win the game 27 to 23. After Texas scored the first touchdown, Kansas had a chance to secure the victory on a pass which would have given them a first down, effectively allowing Kansas to run out the clock. Instead of a first down, Kansas was called for what was considered a controversial offensive pass interference penalty. Kansas eventually