TECHNICAL DEEP DIVE ON SEISMIC RISK AND RESILIENCE - SUMMARY REPORT SUMMARY - RESILIENCE AND RISK SEISMIC ON DIVE DEEP TECHNICAL TECHNICAL DEEP DIVE ON AND SUMMARY REPORT This report was prepared by World Bank staff. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of the World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions: The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to the work is given. The material in this work is subject to copyright. © 2018 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / International Development Association or The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Cover image: Varunyuuu/Shutterstock.com TECHNICAL DEEP DIVE (TDD) ON SEISMIC RISK AND RESILIENCE MARCH 12–16, 2018 This Technical Deep Dive (TDD) was jointly organized by the World Bank Disaster Risk Management (DRM) Hub, Tokyo, and the Tokyo Development Learning Center (TDLC), in partnership with the Government of Japan (the Ministry of Finance; the Cabinet Office; the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism [MLIT]; the Japan International Cooperation Agency [JICA]; the Japan Meteorological Agency [JMA]; Sendai City; and Kobe City). The TDD was organized in collaboration with the Building Regulations for Resilience, Climate Change Adaptation, and Mitigation Knowledge Silo Breaker. CONCEPT: THE TECHNICAL DEEP DIVE (TDD) Technical Deep Dives (TDDs) bring together experts and practitioners through workshops, site visits, peer-to-peer knowledge sharing, and action planning. The objective is to provide specific support to World Bank clients and their projects by addressing thematic topics of high client demand. Typically, reference is drawn from Japan, which offers relevant experience and solutions for a wide range of topics. TDDs offer firsthand knowledge-exchange opportunities and enable developing countries to deepen their knowledge and identify operational solutions through intensive study tours and peer learning. Client demand is determined through a survey conducted by the World Bank. Demand is met by offering participants structured learning before they arrive in Japan, and by providing ongoing support to connect them to technical experts and best practices in close collaboration with the World Bank’s Communities of Practice (CoPs). TDDs have four core elements: ◾ A challenge-driven approach, which reflects the demand-driven nature of the program and involves problem solving and technical assistance, including expert consultation and expert visits to client nations. ◾ Knowledge development for operational development, which involves knowledge exchange, just-in-time assistance, and potential technical assistance for clients and World Bank task teams. ◾ Structured learning, which is delivered to clients and partners through e-learning courses and a package of selected knowledge-exchange instruments before, during, and after the TDD in Japan. ◾ Application to knowledge networks, which involves contributing relevant inputs to CoPs to support the development of case studies as well as best-practice lessons and to diffuse knowledge to the broader community. TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 5 ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS 6 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 8 Technical Deep Dive on Seismic Risk and Resilience 8 Structure of the TDD 9 Participants’ Profile and Challenges Faced 10 Key Takeaways 12 OPENING AND WELCOME 13 SEISMIC RISK IDENTIFICATION 16 Understanding Seismic Risk 16 Applying Risk Assessments to Risk Reduction and Preparedness Strategies 18 SEISMIC RISK MONITORING AND ALERT FOR PREPAREDNESS 20 Japan’s Seismic Monitoring and Early Warning System 20 SEISMIC RISK COMMUNICATION FOR PREPAREDNESS 23 Sendai City’s Preparedness Strategy 23 Emergency Response Simulation Training 24 Education and Outreach 25 Memorializing Disasters 25 Learning Centers 26 Emergency Operations Centers 27 SEISMIC RISK APPLICATION TO INFRASTRUCTURE MANAGEMENT 28 Utilizing Infrastructure for Risk Reduction 28 Infrastructure Planning during Disaster Recovery and Reconstruction 30 Asset Management for Disaster Risk Reduction 31 SEISMIC RISK REDUCTION IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT 34 Building Regulatory Reform for Effective Risk Reduction 34 Increasing the Safety of the Built Environment in Japan 36 OUTCOMES AND NEXT STEPS 40 Knowledge Exchange: Connecting with 100 Resilient Cities 41 Client Action Plans 42 Follow-On Support and Next Steps 52 ANNEXES 54 Annex 1: Resource Library 55 Annex 2: Speakers, Organizers, and Participating Team 61 Table of Contents ̶ 3 TABLE OF FIGURES AND TABLES Figure 1: Objectives of the TDD 8 Figure 2: TDD Focus Areas 9 Figure 3: World Bank Projects Led by TTD-Participating Countries 10 Figure 4: Different Risk Assessment Products 17 Figure 5: Pros and Cons of Historical and Probabilistic Risk Assessments 17 Figure 6: Japan’s Scenario Planning for Large-Scale Earthquakes 18 Figure 7: Emergency Response Plan Elements 19 Figure 8: Typical Service Standard for Issuing Early Warning Information 21 Figure 9: Flow of Early Warning Information 22 Figure 10: Sendai Community Preparedness Strategy 23 Figure 11: Sample Community Risk Maps and Communication Guidelines 23 Figure 12: Structural and Non-Structural Preparedness Measures 28 Figure 13: The Number of Households Relocated to Municipal Housing 29 Figure 14: Highlights of Incremental Updates to Highway Bridge Standards Based on Disaster Damage Analysis 30 Figure 15: Mapping the Condition of Assets 31 Figure 16: Sendai Wastewater Utility Asset Management System Overview 32 Figure 17: Investment Decision Making for Resilient Asset Management by Sendai City Construction Bureau 32 Figure 18: Building Regulatory Reform: Sectors of Engagement 35 Figure 19: Framework for Initiating Building Regulatory Reform 35 Figure 20: Buildings Damaged in the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake, by Year of Construction 36 Figure 21: Quality Assurance Steps for New Buildings in Japan 37 Table 1: Operational Support Requested 52 Table 2: Proposed Thematic Working Groups 53 4 ̶ Table of Figures and Tables ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This summary report is produced by the World Bank DRM Hub, Tokyo, through the Japan-World Bank Program for Mainstreaming DRM and Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). The report was developed by James (Jay) Newman (DRM Specialist, GFDRR), Louisa Barker (Urban DRM Consultant, GFDRR & Social Urban Rural and Resilience [SURR] Global Practice), and Hope Steele (Consultant, GFDRR). The report greatly benefited from the information, support, and feedback provided by the Government of Japan, specifically: the Cabinet Office; the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT); the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA); the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA); Sendai City; and Kobe City. We are also grateful to the Building Regulations for Resilience, Climate Change Adaptation, and Mitigation Knowledge Silo Breaker; the JICA Research Institute; Tohoku University; and the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (NIED). We thank the speakers, participating officials, and project task teams for their presentations, active involvement, and knowledge sharing. The team gratefully acknowledges the peer review, feedback, and input from: Hiroyuki Fujita, Rashmin Gunasekera, Satoshi Harada, Ushio Hashiura, Sawako Hirano, Fumi Imamura, Haruka Imoto, Mikio Ishiwatari, Philip E. Karp, Naohisa Koide, Daniel Levine, Taisuke Matsuzaki, Satoru Mimura, Tetsuya Mizutani, Thomas Moullier, Go Mukai, Yumi Nakajima, Haruko Nakamatsu, Akiko Nakasone, Paul Nelson, Atsushi Okada, Diana Marcela Rubiano Vargas, Keiko Sakoda, Keiko Saito, Tomoki Suzuki, Akira Takahashi, Suma Taisuke, Shouichi Tawaki, Jian Vun, and Vittoria Zanuso. Acknowledgements ̶ 5 ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS BRR Building Regulation for Resilience CoP Community of Practice CPP City Partnership Strategy DRI Disaster Reduction and Human Renovation Institution DRM disaster risk management DRR disaster risk reduction EOC Emergency Operations Center EPOS Earthquake Phenomena Observation System EWS early warning system FDMA Fire and Disaster Management Agency GFDRR Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery GIS Geographical Information System GSURR Global Practice for Social Urban Rural Resilience IPF Investment Project Financing IRIDeS International Research Institute of Disaster Science ISMEP Istanbul Seismic Mitigation and Emergency Preparedness Project JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency JMA Japan Meteorological Agency MLIT Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism MoF Ministry of Finance NEC Ecuadorian Building Code NIED National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience PPP public-private partnership SWU Sendai Wastewater Utility TA technical assistance TDD Technical Deep Dive TDLC Tokyo Development Learning Center TMG Tokyo Metropolitan Government 100RC 100 Resilient Cities 6 ̶ Acronyms and Abbreviations 7 Tokyo Rinkai Disaster Prevention Park: Earthquake Simulation Photo: World Bank EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Technical