Vale of Glamorgan Connectivity Study – The Case for Change Welsh Government Final Report February 2018 Peter Brett Associates 3rd Floor, Randolph House 4 Charlotte Lane Edinburgh EH2 4QZ T: +44 (0)131 297 7010 Vale of Glamorgan Connectivity Study – The Case for Change Final Report On behalf of Welsh Government Project Ref: 41812 | Rev: SC | Date: December 2017 Office Address: 3rd Floor, Exchange Place 3, 3 Semple Street, Edinburgh EH3 8BL T: +44 (0)131 297 7010 E: [email protected] Draft Final Report Vale of Glamorgan Connectivity Study – The Case for Change Document Control Sheet Project Name: Vale of Glamorgan Connectivity Study Project Ref: 41812 Report Title: Draft Final Report Date: 21st December 2017 Name Position Signature Date Stephen Associate – Prepared by: 15/12/2017 Canning Transport Planner Director, Transport Reviewed by: Dr Scott Leitham 18/12/2017 Planning Director, Transport Approved by: Dr Scott Leitham 21/12/2017 Planning For and on behalf of Peter Brett Associates LLP Revision Date Description Prepared Reviewed Approved Final report taking account of WG V2.0 07/02/18 SC SL SL comments This report has been prepared by Peter Brett Associates LLP (‘PBA’) on behalf of its client to whom this report is addressed (‘Client’) in connection with the project described in this report and takes into account the Client's particular instructions and requirements. This report was prepared in accordance with the professional services appointment under which PBA was appointed by its Client. This report is not intended for and should not be relied on by any third party (i.e. parties other than the Client). PBA accepts no duty or responsibility (including in negligence) to any party other than the Client and disclaims all liability of any nature whatsoever to any such party in respect of this report. © Peter Brett Associates LLP 2018 ii Contents Executive Summary .............................................................................................................................. 8 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 16 1.1 Overview ...................................................................................................................... 16 1.2 Scope of the Study ...................................................................................................... 16 1.3 What is driving this study? ........................................................................................... 16 1.4 Developing the Case for Change ................................................................................ 17 2 Study Area ................................................................................................................................. 18 2.1 Overview ...................................................................................................................... 18 3 Policy Review ............................................................................................................................ 19 3.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................. 19 3.2 National Policy ............................................................................................................. 19 3.3 Regional Policy ............................................................................................................ 25 3.4 Local Policy ................................................................................................................. 30 3.5 Summary ..................................................................................................................... 33 4 Land-Use Development Baseline ............................................................................................ 34 4.1 Overview ...................................................................................................................... 34 4.2 Vale of Glamorgan Local Development Plan 2011-2026 ............................................ 34 4.3 Cardiff Airport – St Athan Enterprise Zone .................................................................. 36 4.4 The Sub-Regional Opportunity .................................................................................... 38 4.5 Summary ..................................................................................................................... 43 5 Socio-Economic Baseline ........................................................................................................ 44 5.1 Overview ...................................................................................................................... 44 5.2 Data Geography .......................................................................................................... 44 5.3 Demographics & Socio-Economics ............................................................................. 44 5.4 Gross Value Added ..................................................................................................... 52 5.5 Deprivation .................................................................................................................. 55 5.6 Census Travel-to-Work ............................................................................................... 58 5.7 Inward Investment ....................................................................................................... 62 5.8 Tourism ........................................................................................................................ 63 5.9 Summary ..................................................................................................................... 64 6 Transport Connectivity Baseline ............................................................................................. 66 6.1 Overview ...................................................................................................................... 66 6.2 VoG Highways Network .............................................................................................. 66 6.3 Highway Connectivity Analysis .................................................................................... 68 6.4 VoG Public Transport Network .................................................................................... 75 6.5 Public Transport Connectivity Analysis ....................................................................... 81 6.6 Employment and Business-to-Business Accessibility ................................................. 86 6.7 Freight Intensive Industries ......................................................................................... 90 6.8 Wider Transport Developments in South Wales ......................................................... 91 7 The Future of Cardiff International Airport ............................................................................. 94 iii 7.1 Overview ...................................................................................................................... 94 7.2 Cardiff International Airport ......................................................................................... 94 7.3 Market Context ............................................................................................................ 94 7.4 Competition with Other Airports .................................................................................. 97 7.5 Benchmarking ............................................................................................................ 108 7.6 Emerging Opportunities and Threats ........................................................................ 109 7.7 Summary ................................................................................................................... 110 8 Why invest in improved transport? ....................................................................................... 112 8.1 Overview .................................................................................................................... 112 8.2 Logic Map Detail ........................................................................................................ 114 8.3 Summary ................................................................................................................... 116 9 Conclusions & Next Steps ..................................................................................................... 117 9.1 Conclusions ............................................................................................................... 117 9.2 Next Steps ................................................................................................................. 117 Figures Figure 2.1: Study Area ........................................................................................................................... 18 Figure 4.1: Allocated Employment Sites (Source: Vale of Glamorgan LDP Interactive Map) .............. 35 Figure 4.2 - Cardiff Airport – St Athan Enterprise Zone Map (Source: Welsh Government) ................ 37 Figure 4.3: Gateway Development Zone Illustrative Masterplan (Source: Cardiff Airport – St Athan EZ SDF) .......................................................................................................................................... 38 Figure 4.4: A4119 Regional Rhondda Gateway (Source: RCT County Council) .................................. 40 Figure 4.5: Llanilid